Been awhile since we did a Q&A session on the Houston Texans. If you have any questions, post them below and I will answer to the best of my ability. Will keep this Q&A thread open through the end of the week.
1. Of the veterans weapons still left on the depth chart, which ones do you expect to just miss the final 53? Specifically the RB/WR/TE group.
2. Caserio's brought in LBs of all shapes and sizes other than a true thumper (like McKinney) who can take on blockers. I get the NFL is changing and the hybrids/run and cover LBs are crucial, but do you feel as though the Texans NEED a bigger backer or two considering they play Indy/Tennessee 4 times a year and have had a brutal time stopping the run?
3. Is it really so bad to have a 27 year old elite pass blocker under contract through 2023 or should the Texans still look to move Tunsil next year? I know he was one of the biggest overpays (both trade and contract extension) in team history, but I don't see the logic in letting him walk without a viable solution or player in waiting on the roster.
Cheers and appreciate you keeping the Texans content ship afloat during another dark period.
For the RB group I think the first 3 spots are essentially locked with Mack, Pierce, Burkhead with Dare having spot 4 in good shape. Watch out for Darius Anderson though for RB4. I think Royce Freeman is the vet who doesn't make it.
For the WR group I believe the WR 6 is the one to be watching on depth between Chris Moore, Jalen Camp, and Davion Davis. It is early but I'd say Camp has the early lead. Cooks, Collins, Conley, Dorsett, Metchie are roster locks thus far.
The TE group is probably the leanest position group. Brown, Jordan, Auclair are roster locks. If the team sees quick progression from 5th round draft pick Quitoriano then maybe the team carries 4 tight ends. Quitoriano did not participate in mini camp beyond watching from the sideline, so he has a lot of work to make up. He might be a PS candidate, the use of a 5th round pick on him seemed a bit of a reach at the time.
2. Lovie's defense will lean heavily on the front 4 to stop the run. The team really needs Blacklock to step up to rotate with Collins and Lopez. Wallow put on some weight this offseason, but is by no means a thumper. Keep an eye on his progression.
3. Next offseason will be a difficult decision point on Tunsil for the team. If Howard continues his progression, he will be due a new contract. Tunsil's 2023 cap number has become so inflated, the team will need to either trade Tunsil or do a contract extension. Franchise tag in 2024 is not a possibility due to his 2023 cap charge. An extension will need to be at top of the market for Tunsil, and the inflated pro rated money in 2023 left over from the restructure will create a need for an odd contract structure outside of the Texans' normal structure. By my view the team will need to explore a trade next offseason and draft another tackle; move Howard to the left side or draft a strong left tackle prospect.
Thanks for the reply! I agree and found Anderson's tape to be fun. I'm with you on Quitoriano too. He seemed like a 7th/UDFA guy as the Shrine Bowl tape was decent or rough to go with average measurables.
Tough read about Tunsil, but I get it. Seeing all the future cap space dry up fast and seeing what the LT market looks like makes it seem brutal to keep him longer term. I had low expectations on the trade front this offseason (Early 2nd + Late round) and am struggling to see how it would improve even after a strong 2022 campaign since he's due another massive contract. Appreciate the info.
I would hope the team can finish near the middle of the league in most of the defensive metrics. The team was graded (by PFF) as the 32nd best (aka last place) run defense. Football Outsiders has the team at 25th in run defensive DVOA. Top 12 might be difficult to obtain. I will say though, defensive grading/metrics is one of the most volatile things year over year. A distinct improvement in coverage, run defense, and points allowed should be the goal for 2022.
I think the idea of making the playoffs is a thought for 2023. Unless Davis Mills takes a huge step in progression, I think a 7 win season in 2022 could be considered a successful improvement over 2021. So, for me, no I do not think the team will make the playoffs this year. Hopefully I am wrong.
Hopefully for good sakes you are. But thanks for the response. And yes btw I asked about the run defense because you have to start blaming the scouting department. For picking up catch'em linebackers and fluffy minded DT's
Yes I think Davis Mills will get the full 17 gam evaluation (absent injury) regardless of how he performs. The team will need to evaluate his progression from 2021, how he handles adversity, how he handles success.
I don't think there is a 2 year evaluation plan in place.
What Mills needs to do to prove he can continue an upward trajectory beyond 2022 and not have the team draft another QB is the big question for me.
Let’s say Tunsil and Howard both perform well this year. We will need to negotiate their contracts. What would we be looking at in terms of salary and cap hits? Can we actually afford to keep both of them, pay them top dollar and still afford to continue building our team? We’re already in the Top 10 in the league for OLINE spending. What are you expecting to happen with Tunsil & Howard?
Salary cap wise, for 2023, it will be quite easy to complete extensions as both players' cap number would decrease below what is currently scheduled. On a potential extension for Howard I would think 4 yr/$72m ($18m APY), but I would ask for a salary escalator if he achieves certain percentage of snaps at left tackle. I'm still in the trade Tunsil next offseason camp. If the team's desire is to keep Tunsil, it would require an extension. The structure would be a departure from Houston's standard structure due to the inflated 2023 pro-rated money remaining on Tunsil's current deal. But rest assured Tunsil would be seek for a top of the market deal again, likely over $24m APY.
The ability to keep both will hinge on cash rather than cap in 2023. The team could be looking at a large amount of cash between both players to cover signing bonuses.
G'day Cap,
1. Of the veterans weapons still left on the depth chart, which ones do you expect to just miss the final 53? Specifically the RB/WR/TE group.
2. Caserio's brought in LBs of all shapes and sizes other than a true thumper (like McKinney) who can take on blockers. I get the NFL is changing and the hybrids/run and cover LBs are crucial, but do you feel as though the Texans NEED a bigger backer or two considering they play Indy/Tennessee 4 times a year and have had a brutal time stopping the run?
3. Is it really so bad to have a 27 year old elite pass blocker under contract through 2023 or should the Texans still look to move Tunsil next year? I know he was one of the biggest overpays (both trade and contract extension) in team history, but I don't see the logic in letting him walk without a viable solution or player in waiting on the roster.
Cheers and appreciate you keeping the Texans content ship afloat during another dark period.
Hola DART Fan,
Thanks for the questions!
1. An early 53 man prediction is always fun.
For the RB group I think the first 3 spots are essentially locked with Mack, Pierce, Burkhead with Dare having spot 4 in good shape. Watch out for Darius Anderson though for RB4. I think Royce Freeman is the vet who doesn't make it.
For the WR group I believe the WR 6 is the one to be watching on depth between Chris Moore, Jalen Camp, and Davion Davis. It is early but I'd say Camp has the early lead. Cooks, Collins, Conley, Dorsett, Metchie are roster locks thus far.
The TE group is probably the leanest position group. Brown, Jordan, Auclair are roster locks. If the team sees quick progression from 5th round draft pick Quitoriano then maybe the team carries 4 tight ends. Quitoriano did not participate in mini camp beyond watching from the sideline, so he has a lot of work to make up. He might be a PS candidate, the use of a 5th round pick on him seemed a bit of a reach at the time.
2. Lovie's defense will lean heavily on the front 4 to stop the run. The team really needs Blacklock to step up to rotate with Collins and Lopez. Wallow put on some weight this offseason, but is by no means a thumper. Keep an eye on his progression.
3. Next offseason will be a difficult decision point on Tunsil for the team. If Howard continues his progression, he will be due a new contract. Tunsil's 2023 cap number has become so inflated, the team will need to either trade Tunsil or do a contract extension. Franchise tag in 2024 is not a possibility due to his 2023 cap charge. An extension will need to be at top of the market for Tunsil, and the inflated pro rated money in 2023 left over from the restructure will create a need for an odd contract structure outside of the Texans' normal structure. By my view the team will need to explore a trade next offseason and draft another tackle; move Howard to the left side or draft a strong left tackle prospect.
Thanks for the reply! I agree and found Anderson's tape to be fun. I'm with you on Quitoriano too. He seemed like a 7th/UDFA guy as the Shrine Bowl tape was decent or rough to go with average measurables.
Tough read about Tunsil, but I get it. Seeing all the future cap space dry up fast and seeing what the LT market looks like makes it seem brutal to keep him longer term. I had low expectations on the trade front this offseason (Early 2nd + Late round) and am struggling to see how it would improve even after a strong 2022 campaign since he's due another massive contract. Appreciate the info.
Are we looking to be top 12 in defensive run stops? And do you perceive we can make the playoffs?
Hi Kendrick,
I would hope the team can finish near the middle of the league in most of the defensive metrics. The team was graded (by PFF) as the 32nd best (aka last place) run defense. Football Outsiders has the team at 25th in run defensive DVOA. Top 12 might be difficult to obtain. I will say though, defensive grading/metrics is one of the most volatile things year over year. A distinct improvement in coverage, run defense, and points allowed should be the goal for 2022.
I think the idea of making the playoffs is a thought for 2023. Unless Davis Mills takes a huge step in progression, I think a 7 win season in 2022 could be considered a successful improvement over 2021. So, for me, no I do not think the team will make the playoffs this year. Hopefully I am wrong.
Hopefully for good sakes you are. But thanks for the response. And yes btw I asked about the run defense because you have to start blaming the scouting department. For picking up catch'em linebackers and fluffy minded DT's
What quantities for each position will make up the 53?
5 or 6 WR?
Only 8 of the 17 DL?
Hi Back Row! Thanks for the question. It will entirely depend on the amount of QB's kept and the LB/secondary/special teams. Rough estimate:
QB-3
RB-5
WR-6
TE-3
OL-9
DL-8
LB-7
CB-5
S-4
ST-3
Buenos Dias!
Is it your opinion that the Texans are full evaluation mode this year for Davis?
Boom or Bust for 2022?
Or with 2 more year's of #1 draft picks, do they give him 2 years of evaluation?
Gracias!
Qué onda Joe,
Yes I think Davis Mills will get the full 17 gam evaluation (absent injury) regardless of how he performs. The team will need to evaluate his progression from 2021, how he handles adversity, how he handles success.
I don't think there is a 2 year evaluation plan in place.
What Mills needs to do to prove he can continue an upward trajectory beyond 2022 and not have the team draft another QB is the big question for me.
Let’s say Tunsil and Howard both perform well this year. We will need to negotiate their contracts. What would we be looking at in terms of salary and cap hits? Can we actually afford to keep both of them, pay them top dollar and still afford to continue building our team? We’re already in the Top 10 in the league for OLINE spending. What are you expecting to happen with Tunsil & Howard?
Hi V,
Salary cap wise, for 2023, it will be quite easy to complete extensions as both players' cap number would decrease below what is currently scheduled. On a potential extension for Howard I would think 4 yr/$72m ($18m APY), but I would ask for a salary escalator if he achieves certain percentage of snaps at left tackle. I'm still in the trade Tunsil next offseason camp. If the team's desire is to keep Tunsil, it would require an extension. The structure would be a departure from Houston's standard structure due to the inflated 2023 pro-rated money remaining on Tunsil's current deal. But rest assured Tunsil would be seek for a top of the market deal again, likely over $24m APY.
The ability to keep both will hinge on cash rather than cap in 2023. The team could be looking at a large amount of cash between both players to cover signing bonuses.