Who’s Getting Paid Next? These 10 NFL Players Are Making Their Case
NFL teams are constantly measuring success and preparing for the future. Yes, we are in the middle of the 2025 NFL season. And yes…free agency is only 4 months away.
Here are ten players who are on pace to create a market for a valuable contract in 2026. These players are currently “out-performing” their present contract values.
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Daniel Jones - QB - Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts appear to be all-in on quarterback Daniel Jones. After General Manager Chris Ballard traded away two future first-round picks for defensive back Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, this shifted the leverage back to Jones’s side.
Through 10 weeks of the 2025 season, Jones continues to operate as a Top-10 quarterback, referencing Ben Baldwin’s EPA+CPOE composite data.
The quarterback market (below the top tier) has recently redeveloped, providing both Jones and the Indianapolis Colts with solid information to work from. Comparable contracts:
Geno Smith (2025) - $37.5 million APY / $66.5 million guaranteed
Sam Darnold (2025) - $33.5 million APY / $55.0 million guaranteed
Baker Mayfield (2024) - $33.3 million APY / $50.0 million guaranteed
George Pickens - WR - Dallas Cowboys
George Pickens is having a revival year in Dallas, working with quarterback Dak Prescott. Through 9 games, Pickens has 764 yards receiving (4th highest) on 49 receptions with six receiving touchdowns. Pickens has become Prescott’s go-to receiver.
Referencing the visual above, Pickens has the highest percentage of scoring a touchdown or obtaining a first down per play, among wide receivers with 40 or more targets. Pickens is playing on the Level 2 Proven Performance Escalator, worth $3.656 million after being traded to the Cowboys. Pickens will turn 25 in March 2026.
I would expect Dallas to strongly consider using the franchise tag on Pickens in 2026, which is worth an estimated $28.046 million. Comparable contracts:
Tee Higgins (2025) - $28.75 million APY / $40.9 million guaranteed
Jaylen Waddle (2024) - $28.25 million APY / $76.0 million guaranteed
Jameson Williams (2025) - $26.66 million APY / $66.13 million guaranteed
DeVonta Smith (2024) - $25.0 million APY / $69.99 million guaranteed
A decision by the Cowboys’ front office will need to be made by March 3, 2026, which is the franchise tag deadline for the 2026 league year.
Josh Jobe - CB - Seattle Seahawks
From undrafted in 2022 with the Eagles to starting cornerback in 2025 with the Seahawks, Josh Jobe’s career path has turned quickly under second-year head coach Mike McDonald.
Jobe has one interception so far this year, allowing just a 67.6 passer rating when targeted. Jobe really excels in the run defense and has been used as a blitzing defensive back recently.
Josh Jobe is currently playing on a one-year contract worth $2.0 million with an additional $500,000 available through playtime incentives, which he is on pace to earn.
Jobe’s performance does not place him among the top-tier cornerbacks, and his undrafted status will hamper his market a bit. Teams will need to determine whether his performance is heavily scheme-specific. Jobe’s market could have a wide variance. Comparable contracts:
D.J. Reed (2025) - $16.0 million APY / $32.0 million guaranteed
Zyon McCollum (2025) - $16.0 million APY / $35.41 million guaranteed
Marcus Jones (2025) - $12.0 million APY / $22.0 million guaranteed
Taron Johnson (2024) - $10.25 million APY / $19.0 million guaranteed
Jaylen Watson - CB - Kansas City Chiefs
The former 7th-round draft pick out of Washington State has done what every team asks of its players…progressively improve every year. Watson, who just turned 27, has developed into a quality and dependable cornerback with the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs could have a hampered salary cap situation in 2026. The team is under pressure to sign star cornerback Trent McDuffie. This, along with other factors, could create an easy path to free agency for Watson. Cornerback is a premier position with a premier market.
Watson has allowed a low 15.4 snaps per reception allowed, ranked 11th among qualifying cornerbacks. He eliminates routes with a 5th-best 9.6 snaps per target allowed. If Watson can finish the 2025 season strong with Kansas City, he should see a strong market. Comparable contracts:
L’Jarius Sneed (2024) - $19.1 million APY / $55.0 million guaranteed
Paulson Adebo (2025) - $18.0 million APY / $38.5 million guaranteed
Byron Murphy (2025) - $18.0 million APY / $34.78 million guaranteed
Christian Benford (2025) - $17.25 million APY / $40.8 million guaranteed
Jamel Dean - CB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
At the end of training camp, Jamel Dean agreed to a massive pay cut with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Dean was scheduled to earn $13.0 million for the 2025 league year, but decided to slash that to a $5.0 million base with an additional $2.0 million available through performance incentives.
Dean has since put together an exceptional season through 10 weeks. Accumulating three interceptions (currently tied for the lead amongst cornerbacks) and one defensive touchdown. Dean has been a shutdown cornerback, allowing a league-leading 29.7 QB rating when targeted.
The concern for some teams is Dean’s age, turning 29 in October. Additionally, in Tampa Bay’s system, Dean works primarily on one side of the field. Below is a heatmap from TruMedia showing Dean’s defensive alignment.
Historically, Dean has been a solid performer at cornerback since his rookie season in 2019. How Dean fits schematically in other systems will be the central question in March 2026. Comparable contracts:
Charvarius Ward (2025) - $18.0 million APY / $34.98 million guaranteed
Carlton Davis (2025) - $18.0 million APY / $34.5 million guaranteed
L’Jarius Sneed (2024) - $19.1 million APY / $55.0 million guaranteed
Devin Lloyd - LB - Jacksonville Jaguars
Devin Lloyd is currently playing on the final year of his 4-year rookie contract. The Jacksonville Jaguars declined Lloyd’s 5th year option. The decision was questionable at the time and is starting to look better for Lloyd instead of the Jaguars. The 5th-year option was projected to be approximately $14.8 million for the 2026 season.
Lloyd has become a multi-tool linebacker, recording 14 quarterback pressures and four interceptions. One area of concern for teams will be Lloyd’s missed-tackle rate, currently 18.2%, which ranks in the top 10 among qualifying linebackers. The off-ball linebacker market is highly variable, making it difficult to narrow down a comparable group. Robert Spillane’s ($11.0 m APY) free agent valuation in 2025 will help vault Lloyd upward. I am inclined to believe Lloyd’s valuation will come in at the lower end of the below compareables. Comparable contracts:
Dre Greenlaw (2025) - $10.5 million APY / $13.5 million guaranteed
Azeez Al-Shaair (2024) - $11.33 million APY / $21.5 million guaranteed
Patrick Queen (2024) - $13.66 million APY / $20.51 million guaranteed
Ed Ingram - G - Houston Texans
The Houston Texans acquired Ed Ingram via trade from the Minnesota Vikings in the 2025 offseason. Ingram was not finding success in Minnesota's zone-type scheme. Ingram has quickly found a successful home in Houston, working within Nick Caley’s power gap scheme.
Through 10 weeks, Ingram has posted a 98.0 pass block efficiency rating (per PFF) along with Top 10 (among guards) run blocking characteristics. In the video below, Ingram is at the RG spot, working a double-team while working for extra work.
By all reports, Houston has been pleased with Ingram’s work during the 2025 season. I expect Houston to work hard to retain Ingram on a longer-term contract in the offseason. Houston will face competition for Ingram’s services amid a shortage of available offensive linemen in free agency. The offensive line signings during the 2025 offseason will help bolster Ingram’s market value. Comparable contracts:
Jonah Jackson (2025) - $14.83 million APY / $24.5 million guaranteed
Will Fries (2025) - $17.54 million APY / $34.0 million guaranteed
Aaron Banks (2025) - $19.25 million APY / $19.25 million guaranteed (GB special)
I wrote about Ed Ingram in October 2025, which will provide more detail and context for Houston’s upcoming decision:
Romeo Doubs - WR - Green Bay Packers
The 4th-round pick out of Nevada has the prototypical wide receiver build and the talent to back it up. Doubs has become the WR 1 in Green Bay in his 4th year in the league. Doubs primarily works on the boundary, but 17% of his routes come from the slot. Doubs’s QB rating when targeted is 103.7. As a receiver, Doubs has a 12.2% success rate when given the ball, ranking him in the Top 20 among qualified wide receivers.
Green Bay has a history of letting wide receivers walk in free agency, then circling back to the draft early on day 2 to replenish the position group. Comparable contracts:
Michael Pittman (2024) - $23.33 million APY / $41.0 million guaranteed
Nico Collins (2024) - $24.25 million APY / $32.17 million guaranteed
DeVonta Smith (2025) - $25.0 million APY / $33.99 million guaranteed
Quentin Lake - S - Los Angeles Rams
Quentin Lake was drafted in the 6th round by the Los Angeles Rams and started on the special teams group. By the 2024 season, Lake was a full-time starting safety for the Rams. Lake does not come off the field, currently with 100% snap coverage through 10 weeks of the 2025 season. Lake has size (6’1 - 196lb) with 4.59 coverage speed.
For the 2025 season, the Rams have placed Lake into the slot cornerback role with the ability to shift to safety when three linebackers are on the field. Lake has 10 passes defended through 10 weeks to go along with his seven quarterback pressures.
Los Angeles will be hard-pressed to retain Lake. What position group the rest of the league views Lake to play in will be the question. Comparable contracts are complex due to the variability in positions. Lake could have a surprisingly strong market. Comparable contracts:
Jalen Pitre (2025) - $13.0 million APY / $20.66 million guaranteed
Cam Bynum (2025) - $15.0 million APY / $26.0 million guaranteed
Jevon Hollard (2025) - $15.1 million APY / $27.4 million guaranteed
Trevon Moehrig (2025) - $17.0 million APY / $34.5 million guaranteed
Tyler Linderbaum - C - Baltimore Ravens
Last but not least, a player that will likely reset the Center market in 2026. Tyler Linderbaum was the 25th overall draft pick in the 2022 NFL draft by the Baltimore Ravens. Two Pro Bowls later, the Ravens declined Linderbaum’s 5th year option. The option number was slated to be worth $23.4 million, fully guaranteed.
The $23.4 million salary number is well above the highest-paid center contract in terms of APY, held by Creed Humphrey at $18.0 million. Baltimore did not want to allow the option amount to set the floor for the APY in a new contract extension.
Baltimore will try to re-sign Linderbaum, despite zero success thus far, with the typical Baltimore model. This model will have a slightly lower overall APY but will include a very strong y1 and y2 cash flow to the player.
Linderbaum will have a robust market in the 2026 offseason. Baltimore could look to work a “tag and trade” to recoup immediate draft capital instead of waiting for a 2027 compensatory reward. Contract comparables:
None - Expect a market reset, in excess of $21 million APY and $40 million guaranteed.
Thanks for reading! I look forward to seeing you next time.
-TC