Undrafted Free Agent (UDFA) Spending History
Undrafted Free Agent (UDFA) Spending History
Looking at NFL team spending on Undrafted Free Agents
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It is…NFL Draft Week! This week is one of the most anticipated weeks of the NFL calendar. However, I wanted to cover a different topic associated with the NFL draft process, specifically the undrafted players and how teams have spent on their undrafted classes over the past 10+ years.
How NFL teams approach the undrafted class spending has changed dramatically over the past 11 years dating back to 2012. The total number of UDFA”s (undrafted free agents) per season has continually decreased year over year from 2012-2023. Conversely, NFL teams are spending at a much higher rate, in guaranteed money, on the same UDFA classes.
Why? Let’s dive in.
Referencing the above chart we can observe the total number of UDFA signings has continued to decrease dating back to the 2012 league year. In 2012 there was a league-wide signing total of 622 UDFA’s; conversely, in 2023 there was a league-wide signing total of 481 UDFA’s.
The UDFA draft class size is independent from previous years based on a few factors including the strength of the draft class in the back end of the draft (Rounds 6 & 7).
The 2024 UDFA will be of particular interest. The depth of the 2024 draft class, after the Top 150, is slated to have a strong drop-off in player performance. The inclusion of NIL money in the college world could also affect the UDFA class size, with few underclassmen available in the draft compared to years past.
UDFA Contract Spending
NFL team contract spending has changed dramatically if compared to a small decrease in total UDFA signings from 2012 to 2023.
The charts below are interactive, hover your mouse over the lines for data points.
Testing out a new multiple-line visual from Datawrapper, there is a lot of data to digest here.
The top left chart represents the NFL league salary cap increase from 2012 through 2023. The NFL keeps the rising rate fairly steady. The COVID year, 2021, disrupted that plan however the following increase is nearly in line with the rate of increase compared to years past.
The top right chart represents the average amount of guaranteed money each player has earned. Keep in mind not every UDFA receives guaranteed money. It is worth noting that the average per-player number cannot be evenly interpreted across the league due to the team contract structure.
Teams such as the Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers, and Pittsburgh Steelers do not guarantee salaries in their UDFA contracts. The only guaranteed money the player would earn is via the signing bonus. Compare that to the Dallas Cowboys, who handed out $1.38 million in base salary guarantees to their 2023 UDFA class.
The bottom left chart represents the amount of guaranteed money signed combined between all 32 NFL teams. The bottom right chart represents the same money but is displayed as a percentage of the league salary cap.
In short, teams are spending upwards of 9% of their salary cap towards their UDFA class and could eclipse 10% in 2024.
Why Has Spending Increased?
That’s a good question. Let’s try to figure out why.
The UDFA signing process is complete mayhem the minute the draft ends. 32 teams competing for a small batch of undrafted players generates a bidding fury. Teams will make their offer and the player & agent must make a decision promptly because that offer may not be on the table 15 minutes later as teams shift quickly.
Reason 1: Every year there will be a small group of coveted free agents that an NFL organization did not select during the draft that will receive a large guarantee. Inevitably 32 teams bidding on these players drive up the cost, in terms of guaranteed money.
Reason 2: Salary guarantee offsets. Every UDFA contract with salary guarantees will have offset language within the contract. From a cash perspective, this provides NFL teams with cover.
For example, in 2023 Xazavian Valladay received a three-year contract with the Houston Texans as a UDFA post-draft. The total contract value was $2.725 million with $175,000 guaranteed. The guarantee included a $30,000 signing bonus and a $145,000 salary guarantee in 2023. Valladay was ultimately released by Houston during the roster reduction process and re-signed with the New York Jets practice squad. The money Valladay earned with the Jets offset the salary guarantee. Valladay earned $168,000 with the Jets during the 2023 season. Houston did not have to pay the $145,000 guarantee (in cash…cap is a separate process) as Valladay’s earnings with the Jets offset the amount.
Reason 3: Salary guarantees could be utilized towards a pre-payment for practice squad salaries during the regular season. As covered in Reason 2, the UDFA contracts have salary guarantees. Using the Valladay contract again, for example, Valladay remained with Houston and earned a practice squad roster spot. In 2023 a practice squad player with less than 4 credited seasons would earn a contract total value of $216,000 for 18 weeks of service. Houston would have already paid $145,000 of that $216,000 through the UDFA contract as part of the offset salary provision.
The three reasons listed above, in my review, explain why teams are more willing to give UDFA’s large guarantees compared to years past.
How Often Do UDFA’s Make an NFL Roster
From 2012 through 2023, an average of 2.79 first-year UDFAs make it on a team’s Week 1 roster. This includes players on Reserve (IR, PUP, NFI) and players claimed during the waiver process after the initial 53-man roster reduction.
For the same period, an average of 4.12 first-year UDFAs make it on a team’s Week 1 practice squad.
On average 25.68% of the total UDFA class will make a practice squad for Week 1 of the season with one of the 32 teams.
Data visuals:
Closing Thoughts
NFL teams are spending more and more on undrafted free agents. If the player plays one of the premium positions (QB, WR, OT, DT, CB) an argument could be made on a preference of being an undrafted player as opposed to a drafted player strictly from a guaranteed money viewpoint.
A player drafted 7.252 who spends his entire rookie season on the practice squad will earn more cash for 2024 compared to an undrafted rookie due to the larger signing bonus the drafted player would have received. Coveted undrafted players could earn slightly less money with an opportunity to secure a larger guarantee as part of the UDFA process.
If the player hits, which is rare, a UDFA can earn a new contract one year sooner than a drafted player. Additionally, a UDFA could go through the restricted free agent (RFA) process since UDFA contracts are three years in length. A.J. Bouye with Houston is a good example of a UDFA becoming a hit, going through the RFA process.
Hope everyone enjoys the NFL Draft Week and your team wins the draft!
I am setting the over/under for the number of trades completed by Nick Caserio at 5.5. Let me know in the comments below if you would bet the over or under.
-TC