Tytus Howard Extension Projection
Continued heavy investment by Nick Caserio in the offensive line.
Good day everyone and welcome back to the Cap & Trade Newsletter. After a nice family vacation in New Braunfels, TX I am rested and ready for the upcoming NFL Training Camp schedule.
On the local front with the Houston Texans there was a report from Aaron Wilson of KPRC Channel 2 Houston that right tackle Tytus Howard and the Houston Texans could start negotiations on a contract extension in the near future.
The months after the draft leading up to training camp is the quiet time for the NFL teams, and completing a big extension during this portion of the league calendar is a common occurrence.
Tytus Howard’s career performance is bit murky compared to other players at the position who recently signed new contracts.
Howard was originally drafted in 2019 to play offensive tackle. Only to be moved from left tackle to left guard followed by a move to right tackle before missing 9 games over the course of the 2019 season. Consistent shifting of positions over the 2020 and 2021 seasons were another set of barriers Howard has had to overcome. The 2021 season with Howard at left guard was an issue with his continued growth in the league.
Howard has seen playing time at right tackle, left tackle, and left guard over the past 4 seasons. Based on Howard’s performance it is clear he thrives at the offensive tackle position.
Howard put together his best campaign to date during the 2022 season while manning the right tackle position. Based on the numbers and film, it is clear the 2022 performance is the floor for Howard’s continued rise at the position.
To look at a potential projection for Tytus Howard, first we need to find comparable player contracts. For this projection the comparable player group will be pulled from right tackle positions.
The market gap between left and right tackle continues at a growing margin. Houston has their left tackle in place for the long term future in Laremy Tunsil.
Contract Breakdown for Player Comps:
For comparison, Tytus Howard turned 27 just over a week ago in May. The two areas of this table to dig into is the APY and Inflation Adjusted APY. The adjusted APY accounts for salary cap inflation since the contract was signed.
Other areas of contract measurement will be Guarantee Structure and Running Cash Flow:
The contract measurables for Howard’s agent to target is APY, full guarantee, total guarantee, 2 and 3 year cash flow.
Utilizing PFF data to plot 2022 PFF run and pass block grades to measure against these player comps. Unfortunately I do not have a way of pulling data together for more than one year. If I pulled multiple years, then I would likely have to average the PFF grades which would be incorrect use of the data.
Utilizing this small sample size gives some sense of how the players compare against each other. The quadrant area to be is in the top right area. The red dashed lined are median numbers for the group. Howard coming in near the median is a good starting point for him and potential upward trajectory.
Taking a look at Howard’s career arc, a trend of continuous improvement emerged year over year culminating with his 2022 season. With Howard only 27 years young, it is quite possible this trend will continue.
Note: 2022 & 2020 seasons were full time work at right tackle.
As we’ve been told numerous times, run blocking will be a key element to the success of the Slowik offensive system. The system will have an emphasis on zone blocking schemes.
The zone scheme was less utilized in the previous system in 2022 under Pep Hamilton. A solid zone run blocking grade for Howard is another piece of the projection puzzle, continuing the paint that upward trajectory for Howard.
Utilizing the above data coupled with market dynamics I can project Tytus Howard with the following contract.
Note: This contract projection is based on old money of $13,978,588 for 2023 including the 17th game check.
4 year extension worth base value of $78.0 million up to $80.0 million with incentives. Salaries in 2023 and 2024 are guaranteed at signing, with the 2025 salary guaranteed for injury at signing; the 2025 salary vests to a full guarantee on the 5th day of the 2025 league year.
The contract offers a $2.5 million roster bonus on the 5th day of the 2026 league year. Per game roster bonuses ($2.04 million total) paid $30,000 per game active 2024-2027. Work out bonuses in 2025-2027. And $2.0 million in Pro Bowl nomination incentives ($500,000 per year) 2024-2027.
On paper APY the contract tops all four of the player comps I reviewed above, placing Howard second among right tackles behind Lane Johnson. The number comes in below the inflated APY numbers listed above.
Howard’s 2 and 3 year cash flows ($39.0m & $58.8m) come in at the middle of the pack on the 2 year measure and second on the 3 year measure.
Full guarantee of $35.0 million is equal to that of McGlinchey (received as an unrestricted free agent). Total guarantee of $51.5 million slots in just under McGlinchey.
There are some compromises here based on how the measurements come out.
Another area of compromise is the whole cash flow for 2 years. If Howard were to play out 2023 on the 5th year option + 2024 franchise tag the cash received would be ~$37 million; whereas this contract pays $35 million over the same time frame. The contract would generate $7.4 million in cap savings for 2023.
With new contracts for Laremy Tunsil, Shaq Mason, and potentially Tytus Howard coupled with recent draft capital utilized on Kenyon Green and Juice Scruggs makes for a heavy investment into the offensive line by General Manager Nick Caserio. The burden now shifts to the coaching staff to make effective use of the investment to transfer this position group into a strength.
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