Top 101 NFL Free Agent Contract Projections and Analysis

Top 101 Free Agents:

I will keep this introduction short and sweet because there are roughly 20,000 words below on NFL free agency. First and foremost, I want to thank Troy for allowing me to use his platform for this project. I am grateful for the opportunity to post on an established newsletter. This article was the culmination of three months of work during law school, so regardless of how these projections turn out (although I hope they are spot on), I am proud of the effort. I didn’t plan on doing 101 projections, but one extra player slipped into the article somewhere along the way. The players below are ranked by projected APY, and the projected guarantees are fully guaranteed money, not total guarantees. Lastly, I threw in a few guys I expected to get franchise-tagged and extended, and even some tag and trades. Please feel free to ask me any questions about the projections, and if you like this type of content, follow me on Twitter (X) @salibdaniel1 and subscribe to the awesome Cap and Trade newsletter! Without further ado, let’s get started.

1.     Kirk Cousins (Minnesota Vikings QB):

            Kirk Cousins was on an absolute tear in a contract year before his Achilles injury. Cousins was on pace for just short of 5,000 yards and 40 TDs if he completed an entire season, and he showed no signs of slowing down through eight games. Cousins also posted a mere 2.3% turnover-worthy play rate; he was really growing in Kevin O’Connell’s system before the injury. The great news for Cousins is two-fold: he is already dropping back and throwing the football in his recovery process, and injuries have not hindered players of Cousins’ production and caliber from cashing in before. Dak Prescott and Jaire Alexander come to mind as players who sustained serious injuries in their contract years on their way to being paid close to the top of their positional markets. Granted, Cousins will not surpass Joe Burrow’s deal, but the injury should not be too big of a hurdle in negotiations. Cousins comes with a unique, albeit excellent, set of demands: almost all the money he has signed for in his NFL career has been fully guaranteed, and I have no doubt he will try to shoot for that again. His age (soon to be 36) and his recent injury will make any team hesitant to guarantee a deal entirely. Furthermore, achieving a fully guaranteed deal has proven to be a challenge in a post-Watson market. Still, in the event that the deal is shorter and not top-market dollar, there should be a team or two out there willing to guarantee a significant portion of Cousins’ next contract.  I think Cousins has a zone of possible agreement between his previous deal (35APY) and the current cap inflation of that deal (~43APY). Cousins could also look to add incentives into his next deal. Incentives should be easy to accommodate because they will be classified as not likely to be earned (NLTBE), considering the time he went down with an injury last season. NLTBE incentives do not count against the current year cap. Ultimately, I think Cousins will land just below the 40 APY mark on this deal, and if he performs how he did last season, he will make some team very happy. A final note, a two-year deal offers Cousins the perfect situation to earn significant guarantees, but it does not preclude him from signing an extension next year, when his market is much more stable.

Final Projection: 2 years 76 million (38 APY) with a maximum value of 84 million. 60 million fully guaranteed at signing.

2.     Baker Mayfield (Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB):

            Baker Mayfield took a four-million-dollar deal this season and parlayed it into a huge contract year. Mayfield posted over 4,000 passing yards in the regular season with 28 TDs and just 10 INTs. Mayfield’s passing yards and touchdowns are both career-high numbers for the former number-one overall pick; he even led the Bucs all the way to the divisional playoff round when many people thought they would be vying for a top-ten pick. There is no doubt that Mayfield has earned a sizeable contract after his performance, but there are also some question marks around him. For starters, he had the fourth most turnover-worthy plays this season (24), and while that does not reflect in his INT or lost fumble stats from this year, he should regress to the mean next year. There might also be concerns about how Mayfield will perform if he loses his WR1 in Mike Evans this offseason. Nonetheless, Mayfield can finally sign a significant contract after finding a good home with his fourth NFL team. The middle of the QB market has been somewhat nonexistent in recent years. Still, a middle ground between Geno Smith and Derek Carr makes sense, and the transition tag number (34.3m) might also be a guiding light in these negotiations where wiggle room abounds.

Final Projection: 3 years 100 million (33.3 APY) with a maximum value of 120 million. 40 million fully guaranteed at signing.

3.     Josh Allen (Jacksonville Jaguars EDGE):

Josh Allen was one of football's most disruptive edge rushers this season. He racked up 90 pressures (5^th in the NFL), 17.5 sacks (2^nd in the NFL), a 20.5% pass rush win rate (7^th in the NFL), and 40 stops. He ranks in the top ten in almost every critical metric for an edge rusher. Allen is most likely heading for the franchise tag, and his floor for a long-term deal should be the deals that Rashan Gary and Montez Sweat signed in-season. Of the four edge rushers who make at or more than 25 million dollars a year, three are signed to 5-year deals, and two of those three are represented by the same agency as Josh Allen. The Jaguars have shown a willingness to do three-year deals with Darious Williams, Brandon Scherff, DaVon Hamilton, Evan Engram, and Foye Oluokun, all on three-year deals. However, I think the Jaguars will want five years for Allen, straying a bit from their usual length of deals for a young premium position player. Allen should easily eclipse 25 million dollars annually, considering his elite production, draft status (7^th overall), and age (26). The Jaguars did not do much negotiating with Allen before the 2023 season, and he definitely took notice. The price has shot way up, and I am looking forward to a massive Josh Allen payday.

Final Projection (An extension off the franchise tag): 5 years 140 million (28 APY). 75 million fully guaranteed at signing.

4.     Chris Jones (Kansas City Chiefs IDL):

            Chris Jones went out and pretty much replicated his dominant 2022 season again in 2023. The Chiefs and Jones have had protracted negotiations for over a year, but Jones has expressed his desire to run it back with the Chiefs for a three-peat, and the rise in the cap should help the Chiefs extend an offer worthy of Jones's acceptance. Last year, it was rumored the Chiefs were willing to offer Jones 74 million over 3 years, which equates to 24.6 APY. When you account for the rise in the cap from 224.8 million to 255.4 million, last year’s offer becomes almost 28 million dollars a year on the dot. With that in mind, I also think the agreed-upon length will be 4 years. The Chiefs will only fully guarantee roughly two years, as is the case for almost all of the top interior defensive linemen. Jones may also see some guarantees vest in his third year. However, from an optics standpoint, it looks better for Jones to agree to a fourth year, which will drive up the total value. The Chiefs won’t mind this as it adds a non-guaranteed fourth year they can prorate money into (the Chiefs don’t use void years). If Jones, who is entering his age 30 season, is still playing well enough in three years to earn that fourth year, it will presumably be on a discount, considering the time that will pass between now and then. Incentives are also something Jones will want in his deal since he was successful in achieving them this year. This deal will make Jones the second highest-paid IDL in the league, with the most fully guaranteed money. Everyone should walk away happy.

Final Projection: 4 years 112 million (28 APY) with a maximum value of 120 million. 56 million fully guaranteed at signing.

5.     Brian Burns (Carolina Panthers EDGE):

            Brian Burns and the Carolina Panthers are in a precarious situation. Burns has been a great defensive player for the Panthers since they drafted him 16^th overall in the 2019 draft. Burns has amassed 46 sacks, 8 forced fumbles, and two Pro Bowl nods in five seasons with the Panthers. 2022 was his best season, where he tallied 12.5 sacks and 68 pressures. Burns has never been great in the pass rush win rate metric, which may distinguish him from some elite pass rushers, but he’s also been a part of some not-so-great Panthers teams and defenses in recent years, which never helps. Burns has played out his rookie deal and fifth-year option with the Panthers while he has seen his draft counterparts Nick Bosa, Montez Sweat, and Rashan Gary all sign major extensions this last year alone. The major roadblock with Burns has been the trade offer the Panthers rejected from the Rams a few years ago. The Rams offered the Panthers two first-round picks and a second-rounder in exchange for Brian Burns, which the Panthers declined. Naturally, this would lead Burns and his camp to believe he should reset the market or come close to it on the heels of the rejected trade offer. Obviously, that never happened. In recent years, we have seen players like Khalil Mack, Larmey Tunsil, Jamal Adams, and Jalen Ramsey all sign top-of-the-market extensions at their positions after being traded for two first-round picks, so you would think the same logic would apply to Burns if the Panthers deemed him to be more valuable than the offer the Rams made. However, all those players had the added leverage of the actual trade, whereas Burns was never traded. I know that seems like an obvious point, but the teams that acquired those players actually had the reality of a sunk cost staring them in the face if they did not cave to the top-of-market demands for those players. Conversely, while the Panthers would lose a great player in Burns, they would not have lost two first-round picks in vain, considering the years Burns went on to play for them after the rejected trade. In reality, his production is not in line with a top-of-the-market deal, and the Panthers seem adamant about that. Burns should still be able to surpass the likes of Montez Sweat and Rashan Gary in the EDGE contract rankings with the franchise tag heading his way. The tag for Burns will likely be 24 million, and the average of two tags would be 26.4 million. The Panthers should be willing to offer Burns the generally agreed-upon multi-year framework based on the average of two tags, and I believe it is in Burns’ best interest to take it. You can only go so many years without long-term security in the NFL, and I think Burns and his camp have belabored about the rejected trade leverage for so long, to no avail, that it is time to cut ties with that argument and do what is best for his financial security. Burns deserves good money, and the Panthers should treat their esteemed star player with respect.

Final Projection (an extension off the franchise tag): 5 years 132.5 million (26.5 APY). 60 million fully guaranteed at signing.

6.     Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals WR):

Tee Higgins did not exactly have the contract season he hoped for, but he is still in a position to cash in this off-season. There is a lot of debate around Tee Higgins right now about his free agent status and future with the Bengals, but at the very least, I think it is clear the Bengals will franchise tag Higgins and have a better chance than not to sign him to a long-term extension. I would not rule out a trade if negotiations go south. Nonetheless, Higgins has a strong case to become a top-five highest-paid WR. Higgins put up back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons in 2021 and 2022 to go along with 13 TDs and 32 contested catches in that time frame. Higgins has also had strong showings in games where Ja’Marr Chase has been out, in which he averages 92.7 yards per game, 6.5 receptions per game, and 14.2 yards per catch. Higgins can make a clear case that he is not the best WR2 in football but another WR1 on a team that just happens to have two. Some may think Higgins missing five games this season hurt his market, but recent precedent shows otherwise. Specifically, AJ Brown played 604 snaps in his contract year, while Higgins played 573 this year. Players like Dak Prescott, Jaire Alexander, and Mike Williams also missed significant time leading up to their contracts in recent years, but it did not hinder them from getting paid. If you look at Higgins's body of work across his first four years in the league, it stacks up fairly similar to DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, and AJ Brown. If the Bengals cave on their usual guarantee structure (no guarantees outside of year one), Higgins could be amenable to signing an extension like the one I have projected here. If not, he could be traded.

Final Projection (A trade and extension off the franchise tag): 4 years 104 million (26 APY). 50 million fully guaranteed at signing.

7.     Justin Madubuike (Baltimore Ravens IDL):

            If you’ve been following me on Twitter, you are all too familiar with the stellar season Justin Madubuike has had this year. The Ravens star accumulated 13 sacks (best amongst IDL this season) and 64 pressures (sixth most for IDL) in the regular season, and both of those marks doubled his single-season career highs before this season. I think Madubuike has arguably had the most beneficial contract year of any NFL player, and the gravity of that statement cannot be overstated. In my estimation, Madubuike has increased his annual value by roughly 65% more than his value coming into this season. His 37 stops were also a top ten mark for IDL this year, and his 14% pass rush win rate was a top 15 mark as well. He continued his stellar play into the post-season with 7 pressures against the Texans. Madubuike may have played so well that he could walk right into the franchise tag, which was not expected coming into the season. There is also a greater-than-zero chance that Madubuike hits the open market or becomes available via trade on the tag. Regardless of who he plays for next season, it will be for a lot of money. Madubuike was recently recorded saying he needed “25 million a year.” I have no doubt that a mark above 25 APY will be his initial asking price this offseason. Anything above 24 APY would make him the second-highest paid IDL in the NFL, behind only Aaron Donald. By many measures, Madubuike has outplayed both Quinnen Williams and Jeffery Simmons’ contract years from the 2022 season. He is also represented by the same agency that did the Daron Payne and Dexter Lawrence deals. With those connections in mind, Madubuike’s floor is at least 22 APY, but the better question is how much more he will get. Digging into the math for a moment, the average amount of the DT franchise tag over the next two years is 24.31 million. From there, I think Madubuike’s age will convince the Ravens to land on an even 25 APY.  This projection might be a tad rich for Madubuike’s one year of elite production, but a player of Madubuike’s skill, youth, leverage, and momentum don’t pop up every day. I’m willing to take my chances on the upper end of his possible outcomes.

Final Projection (an extension off the franchise tag): 4 years 100 million (25 APY). 50 million fully guaranteed at signing.

8.     Michael Pittman Jr. (Indianapolis Colts WR):

            Michael Pittman Jr. is having a great contract year. Pittman Jr. also benefits from one of the best advantages a player can have to maximize their career earnings: being an early second-round pick. This allows their draft slot to maintain a high value while they avoid the fifth-year option that teams have for first rounders. Pittman Jr. is on pace for a career year in catches, yards, and yards per route run. He also has 48 contested catches over the last three years, making him one of the best-contested catch receivers in the NFL. Remember, Pittman has produced on his rookie contract with Gardner Minshew, Phillip Rivers, Jacoby Brissett, Carson Wentz, Jacob Eason, Matt Ryan, Nick Foles, and Sam Ehlinger throwing him the football. The man is a trooper and deserves a big extension. I think the three most significant factors to monitor with Pittman Jr. are the following: (1) will he get franchise tagged, (2) will he sign before or after Tee Higgins, and (3) will he sign for three years or four years. Ultimately, I believe he gets tagged, gets an extension before Higgins, and signs a four-year deal. 

Final Projection (An extension off the franchise tag): 4 years, 100 million (25 APY). 48 million fully guaranteed at signing.

9.     Christian Wilkins (Miami Dolphins IDL):

Christian Wilkins heard the noise that he was not an elite pass rusher in contract talks last year. Wilkins sat around and watched his 2019 IDL draft counterparts all get extended by the teams that drafted them while he waited for a deal that never came. The pass rush production was the most significant difference between Wilkins and Quinnen Williams, Dexter Lawrence, Jeffery Simmons, and Daron Payne. Wilkins has always been a good pass rusher and a great run defender, but elite pass rushers get paid first and foremost on defense in the NFL. Wilkins answered the call this season to the tune of 58 pressures, 9 sacks, and an 8.9% pass rush win rate, all of which come close to or significantly surpassed his former career highs. It appears that Wilkins is heading towards free agency, and the 28-year-old should be a major beneficiary of the 13% rise in cap coming off a career year at a premium position. The Daron Payne and Dexter Lawrence deals should set a nice floor for Wilkins, who has the added benefit of multiple teams vying for his services.

Final Projection: 4 years 92 million (23 APY). 45 million fully guaranteed at signing.

10.  Danielle Hunter (Minnesota Vikings EDGE):

            After what seems like countless contract disputes since Danielle Hunter signed his 5-year 70-million-dollar deal in 2018, Hunter will finally be able to test the market. Hunter could smell his contractual freedom approaching, and he absolutely balled this year to the tune of 80 pressures, 16.5 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 50 stops, and a 15.8% pass rush win rate all on a defensive line where he did a lot of the heavy lifting. The only thing going against Hunter is his age. He will be entering his age 30 season in 2024, which is another pitfall of the five-year deal he signed in 2018. Nonetheless, Hunter should still see a strong market, which should lead to a huge payday, coming off what is arguably his best season as a pro.

Final Projection: 3 years 69 million (23 APY). 44 million fully guaranteed at signing.

11.  Calvin Ridley (Jacksonville Jaguars WR):

Calvin Ridley has had a winding road to his second contract. He’ll have just finished his sixth season in the NFL when he signs a second contract this offseason. He will also be entering his age 30 season, which will cause some concern. The Jaguars may also consider not resigning him since an extension would lead to increased draft compensation they would have to send to Atlanta because it would trigger one of the conditions in the trade they made. Ridley has also had his ups and downs on the field this season. He put up 1,016 yards and 8 touchdowns this season, but he disappeared at times, and his 7 drops, coupled with his 1.57 yards per route run, leave something to be desired. With all that in mind, I think Christian Kirk’s 2-year cash flow of 18.5 million per year from 2022 will set a nice starting point for Ridley. His production and age also line up with the deal Brandin Cooks signed with the Texans back in 2022. Those two deals should set decent parameters for Ridley this offseason after accounting for their cap inflation. Even after inflation, I give Ridley a bump as likely the top available free agent WR this offseason.

Final Projection: 3 years 69 million (23 APY). 36 million fully guaranteed at signing.

12.  Antoine Winfield Jr. (Tampa Bay Buccaneers S):

            Antoine Winfield Jr. had a stellar contract year, and the All-Pro voters agreed, naming him a first-team all-pro to go along with a sixth-place finish in the Defensive Player of the Year voting. Winfield Jr. is walking into negotiations with a whole lot of leverage. He posted career highs in tackles (114), forced fumbles (6), interceptions (3), and pass breakups (7). He only gave up 0.48 yards per coverage snap and played 1,099 snaps in the regular season alone. It should be noted that Winfield Jr. made an agency change last year; he is now represented by the same agency that did deals for Derwin James, Jessie Bates, Budda Baker, and Quandre Diggs, so they are no stranger to the top of the safety market. The two main comparisons for Winfield Jr. will be at the top of the market in James and Minkah Fitzpatrick. The Bucs might be able to catch a slight break in Winfield’s body of work compared to James and Fitzpatrick. Both James and Fitzpatrick earned a few more accolades than Winfield Jr. in their rookie deals (multiple all-pro and pro bowls seasons compared to Winfield Jr.’s one), both were first-round picks, whereas Winfield Jr went in the second (draft bias), and even Fitzpatrick was traded for a first-rounder from the Dolphins to the Steelers. Ultimately, these hints of career bias may help the Bucs keep Winfield Jr. under the top safety deal in terms of average per year as a % of the cap at signing, but Winfield Jr. should still become the highest-paid safety in the league by total value and fully guaranteed money due to the rise in the salary cap. The deal below is 8.02% of the salary cap, compared to Minkah’s 8.7% and Derwin’s 9.1%, but both parties should walk away happy with this deal.

Final Projection (an extension off the franchise tag): 4 years 82 million (20.5 APY). 40 million fully guaranteed at signing.

13.  Jaylon Johnson (Chicago Bears CB):

            Jaylon Johnson could not have had a better contract year. Johnson gave up a mere 0.36 yards per coverage snap and just 1 TD all season. He tallied up 4 INTs and 6 PBUs to go along with his lockdown coverage, so he made plays in the few times a game when the ball came his way. Johnson’s lockdown coverage earned him second-team all-pro honors and the soon-to-be 25-year-old seems destined for the franchise tag. The debate between paying a player for his prior production vs future production is best exemplified in Johnson’s case. The Bears likely feel hesitant to extend Johnson at a top-of-the-market deal because his entire body of work across his four-year rookie deal does not even sniff the season he had in 2023. He has also missed 12 games across his rookie deal. On the flip side, Johnson believes his best football and more all-pro seasons are ahead of him, so he is justified in asking to be the highest-paid corner in football. All of this likely leads to the 19.8-million-dollar CB franchise tag. Two possible calculations make Johnson worthy of being the highest-paid corner in football. The average of two franchise tags is 21.78 million, so Johnson should be looking for an APY and cash flow within that range. That number would surpass Jaire Alexander’s top market deal at 21APY. Furthermore, Johnson has a great player comparison in his draft counterpart, Trevon Diggs. Diggs also had an all-pro season under his belt for signing an extension but also encountered volatile play throughout his rookie contract. Diggs was the 51^st pick in the 2020 draft compared to Johnson’s 50^th pick of the 2020 draft. Diggs signed a 5-year 97-million-dollar deal before the 2023 season, which is good for 19.4 million dollars per year and 8.6% of the cap at the time of signing. 8.6% of the cap this year would be 21.9 million. However, the Alexander and Diggs deals come with huge caveats, only 30 and 33 million dollars fully guaranteed, respectively. The Bears can also rely on the body of work argument coupled with the idea that they cannot attribute the full cap growth to Johnson’s deal alone. I think the Bears can get a deal with Johnson done if they shift his focus to stronger guarantees and cash flow as opposed to the label of highest paid in football by average per year. Time will tell if these two sides can get a deal done, but if nothing else, it doesn’t hurt to make 19.8 million dollars fully guaranteed this season.

Final Projection (an extension off the franchise tag): 5 years 101 million (20.2 APY). 43 million fully guaranteed at signing.

14.  L’Jarius Sneed (Kansas City Chiefs CB):

L’Jarius Sneed came into this season as a very good slot corner. He finished the season as a lockdown outside CB1. He has raised his stock more than almost anyone this season. Sneed has played virtually all his snaps as an outside corner for the first time in his career, and he has produced at a high level: 0.67 yards per coverage snap, 2 interceptions, 10 pass breakups, and no touchdowns allowed. Sneed has also proven to be an aggressive tackler and one of the best pass-rushing corners in the NFL throughout his career. I don’t think the Chiefs will be able to retain Sneed after the type of season he has had, which should place him amongst the top ten highest-paid corners in the NFL. That said, the Chiefs have shown an interest in tagging and trading Sneed. Sneed can likely be had in a trade for roughly a second-round pick, which is more than a third-round comp pick the Chiefs would get if Sneed walked in free agency. The 19.8-million-dollar tag, with added traded leverage in the event of a trade, would put Sneed in a position to make even more money than if he were to hit the open market. Sneed is in an excellent position for a huge payday.

Final Projection (an extension off a franchise tag and trade): 4 years 76 million (19 APY). 30 million fully guaranteed at signing.

15.  Jonathan Greenard (Houston Texans EDGE):

            Man, what a season Greenard had in a contract year. I had high expectations for him coming into this year, but he has exceeded all of them. Greenard put together 48 pressures, 12.5 sacks, a 12.6% pass rush win rate, and 35 stops in only 15 games. Greenard doesn’t produce clean-up sacks either. According to Brandon Thorn’s true sack score, Greenard had the tenth-highest sack score in the NFL this season. Coming into this year, I thought if he had a strong season, he could mimic the approach of Maliek Collins and Uchenna Nwosu, who share the same agent as Greenard. Collins and Nwosu both agreed to two-year deals, and both signed subsequent extensions a year into those two-year deals. This structure allowed them to build up more value coming off good, but not great, years and cash in again shortly afterward. Greenard blew by that approach with a great season. Greenard had a season more in line with what got Uchenna Nwosu his third contract, which was 3 years for 45 million. Adjusting that deal to the cap inflation and accounting for Greenard hitting the open market should set the expectation for a new deal. The only issue for Greenard is his injury history. This is the first year in his career where he has played more than 415 snaps, but he’s a monster off the edge when he's healthy.

Final projection: 3 years, 54 million (18 APY) with a maximum value of 63 million. 27 million fully guaranteed at signing.

16.  Leonard Williams (Seattle Seahawks IDL):

            The best thing Leonard Williams has going for him as he heads into free agency is yet another negotiation with draft capital invested into him. The Seahawks will be reluctant to let their mid-season acquisition walk in free agency after they gave up a second-round pick for the rights to Leonard Williams at the trade deadline. Williams closed the year with 5.5 sacks, 54 pressures, an 11.2% pass-rush win rate, and 34 stops. Williams is entering his age-30 season and aiming for his third contract, but age has not recently been a huge issue for older interior defensive linemen. You will get paid if you can still play at the coveted position. Grady Jarrett and Cam Heyward come to mind as two IDLs that signed third contracts in the ~16.5 APY range. Both players should set the floor for Williams in his discussions for a new deal. Williams should also aim to become the highest-paid Seahawks defender, which would mean surpassing Dre’Mont Jones’ 17.1 APY deal that he signed last offseason. Couple all these comps together with the trade leverage, and I think Williams can maintain his status as a top ten highest-paid interior defensive lineman in the NFL.

Final Projection: 3 years 54 million (18 APY). 35 million fully guaranteed at signing.

17.  Mike Onwenu (New England Patriots OG/OT):

            Mike Onwenu has done what very few offensive linemen can do in the NFL in the first few years of his career: he has played significant snaps at three different positions on the line, and he’s played them all pretty well. It’s not every day a proven 26-year-old with multiple years of starting experience at different positions gets to hit the open market, but that could be the case for Onwenu in March. In a league desperate for offensive line talent, I expect a bidding war for Onwenu when free agency rolls around. Whatever position Onwenu plays next season and whatever team he plays for; I can assure you he will be paid handsomely for his work. As for contract comps, Elgton Jenkins was the last lineman who got paid playing multiple positions to Onwenu's caliber. I expect Jenkins to set a solid ceiling for Onwenu this March. Onwenu does have an added layer of complexity to his free agency situation: he is currently without an agent. It remains to be seen if he will sign a contract without one, but hopefully, he will take full advantage of this opportunity to maximize his earnings on this next contract.

Final Projection: 4 years 68 million (17 APY). 30 million fully guaranteed at signing.

18.  Bryce Huff (New York Jets EDGE):

            Someone told Bryce Huff he was in a contract year this season. After receiving the second-round tender as a restricted free agent last offseason, Huff racked up 67 pressures and 10 sacks in only 334 pass-rushing snaps. Huff ended the season in elite air with the third-highest pass rush win rate in the NFL (22.9%) behind only Myles Garrett and Micah Parsons but ahead of Nick Bosa and Aidan Hutchinson. The ascension into the ranks of elite pass rushers for Huff has been a fun story for the former undrafted free agent. He has a lot going for him as he enters free agency going into his age 26 season. The biggest knock on Huff’s game will be his limited snaps up to this point. Huff has been relegated to a role as a designated pass rusher. His 481 snaps this season were the most he’s ever played on defense, but that’s only half as much as every down EDGE players. In the past two seasons, 75% of Huff’s snaps have come as a pass rusher. Teams will have to decide if this was a product of the Jets' depth at the position or if Huff really can’t play on run-downs. I think teams will buy into a mix of the two theories, which should allow Huff to parlay his pass-rush success not only into a major contract but also a role that gives him a chance to play more snaps on defense overall. Because Huff is such a unique player who is almost exclusively a pass rusher, his contract situation lacks consistent precedent. I chose to cap inflate Yannick Ngakoue’s 2021 13 APY deal from a 198.2 cap number, which projects to just under 17 APY in 2024. I think both players presented as pass-rush first and can be similarly compared to one another in that regard. A career arc comparison could be Shaq Barrett. Both players were undrafted, eventually played on second-round tenders, and hit free agency. While they aren’t perfect comps for on-the-field play, it is something to note. I also expect Huff to push for strong playtime and sack incentives in his deal to account for his continued growth and increased role on defense wherever he lands in free agency.

Final Projection: 3 years 51 million (17 APY) with a maximum value of 57 million. 30 million fully guaranteed at signing.

19.  Tyron Smith (Dallas Cowboys OT):

            Tyron Smith is getting closer to the end of his career as he enters his age-33 season in 2024, but he is still an outstanding player when healthy. This year, Smith gave up just one sack and 18 pressures in 13 games. The 13 games are indicative of Smith’s injury-prone career. Unfortunately, he has missed at least three games every season since 2016 and had season-ending injuries in 2020 and 2022. The Cowboys worked with Smith this past year on his contract, lowering the value to 6 million in the final season. He eventually earned 9 million upon achieving incentives. Smith should be looking to cash in one more time after signing an 8-year contract in 2014 that locked him in throughout the entire prime of his career. Terron Armstead is an older and injury-prone tackle who was still able to cash in on the market due to his strong play when healthy, so I expect Armstead to be a decent comp for Smith. It seems Smith and the Cowboys are reaching the end of their 13-year relationship, but if Smith can stay healthy next year, he is going to make some team very happy.

Final Projection: 2 years 30 million (15 APY). 15 million fully guaranteed at signing.

20.  Kevin Dotson (Los Angeles Rams OG):

            Kevin Dotson is having one of the best contract seasons in recent memory. Before this season, Dotson had been a reliable starter but nothing special. His PFF grades ranged from 64-66 in his first three seasons. However, Dotson has taken his game to a new level this year, and the trade from the Steelers to the Rams has been extremely beneficial for him. Dotson is PFF’s second-highest graded guard this year and has been an integral part of the Rams offensive success this season. Dotson will be a great litmus test for what I like to call career bias. This differs from draft bias or positive trade bias (like a team trading a first-round pick for you). Career bias boils down to one question: how has your career unfolded? For Dotson, it has been a winding road. For starters, he was a day three draft pick from a non-power five school, he was not a full-time starter his first two years in the league, and after starting his third year at a serviceable level, he was traded away in favor of signing another player. Finally, Dotson was asked to take a pay cut by his new team entering the 2023 season. Dotson has been one of the best guards in football this year, but teams may view him with a negative career bias based on his first three seasons in the NFL. I used the career bias lens when evaluating the top of the free agent guard market (LG vs. RG is negligible). I asked myself this question: does Dotson’s career look more like Joe Thuney and Brandon Scherff, or does it look more like Laken Tomlinson and Ben Powers? Dotson’s career looks more like the latter two guards, who signed for roughly thirteen million dollars a year. Tomlinson and Powers were either traded, drafted on day three, or not full-time starters to start their careers. This contrasts with Thuney and Scherff, who were franchise-tagged and had all-pro caliber seasons before they tested free agency. All of this leads me to believe Dotson is looking at a very good, but not top-tier, guard contract. Nevertheless, he has made a massive rise this season, and it’s been fun to watch.

Final Projection: 4 years 56 million (14 APY). 28 million fully guaranteed at signing.

21.  Patrick Queen (Baltimore Ravens LB):

            Patrick Queen is yet another beneficiary of a declined fifth-year option. Once the Ravens drafted Trenton Simpson and declined Queen’s option, he took his game to a new level. Queen posted a career-high 124 tackles to go along with 24 pressures and his second consecutive season playing more than 1,000 snaps. Queen’s first two years in Baltimore were rough, and they may linger in his negotiations. Some teams will rightfully question if Queen can thrive without an all-pro like Roquan Smith as his running mate. However, Queen is still 24 and coming off his best season yet, so he’s in for a sizeable new deal, likely from a team other than the Ravens. He’s a complex projection to nail down, though. He doesn’t have the production of a Bobby Okereke or a Foye Oluokun, but he’s younger and has draft bias in his favor. He also doesn’t have the pedigree that Tremaine Edmunds had going into his free agency, so there’s a vast zone of possible agreements for Queen. I would not be surprised to see him land a 3 or 4-year deal anywhere in the 10-18 million APY range, but my gut tells me he’ll end up roughly in the middle.

Final Projection: 3 years 42 million (14 APY) with a maximum value of 48 million. 25 million fully guaranteed at signing.

22.  Xavier McKinney (New York Giants S):

            Xavier McKinney’s contract situation will be fun to watch, and it has layers of drama to it. McKinney verbally expressed some concerns to the media about former Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, which is usually something kept in-house. He also broke his hand riding ATVs during his bye week in 2022, so there are a few concerns about team culture fit and decision-making but make no mistake, McKinney is a talented player. McKinney has recently been vocal about his value on social media, expressing his belief that he is a top 5 safety in the NFL. With that in mind, I believe the Giants will let him walk. Joe Schoen has been careful and particular about the deals he gives safeties dating back to his Buffalo days, where they paid Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer roughly 9.5 APY on two-year deals even in the midst of all-pro and pro-bowl seasons. McKinney will likely exceed what the Giants are willing to allocate toward the position. With that in mind, free agency is on the horizon for him, and his agency represented Jessie Bates in free agency last year to the tune of a 4-year, 64-million-dollar deal. They also represent Derwin James, Budda Baker, and Qunadre Diggs. Suffice to say they are familiar with the safety market. Xavier McKinney was the highest-drafted safety in the 2020 class, and his 2020 counterpart, Grant Delpit, was the third safety taken in that class, just eight picks behind McKinney. Delpit should set a nice 12 APY floor for McKinney. Bates should set a ceiling for McKinney, because Bates had an all-pro season and a franchise tag under his belt before he signed his deal in free agency. Finally getting to his production, McKinney balled out in his contract year. He posted 115 tackles with only 7 missed tackles, had 3 INTs and 3 PBUs, and played every single defense snap for the Giants this year with 1,128. McKinney also has the versatility to line up at free safety, strong safety, and even in the box at times. McKinney’s best football is ahead of him, and the dollar signs will roll in as he enters his age-25 season, coming off a career-best year with draft bias backing him. I do think teams will haggle with McKinney about whether he deserves to be in the upper echelon of safeties, specifically the top 5, which make at least 16 million per year, but the compromise to that might be a 3-year deal both sides are happy with. A 3-year deal at 14 APY would make McKinney the second highest-paid free agent safety behind only Jessie Bates and tied with Marcus Williams, and he could hit the market again at 28.

Final Projection: 3 years 42 million (14 APY). 20 million fully guaranteed at signing.

23.  Za’Darius Smith (Cleveland Browns EDGE):

            Za’Darius Smith has not had quite the same season he did in 2022 with the Vikings, but he has undoubtedly produced at a substantial rate again this season. Smith put up 60 pressures and an 18.5% pass rush win rate (9^th in the NFL) this season for the Browns. Smith has been a consistent force off the edge coming up on a decade now for four different teams. While he is slated to be 32 next season, he has not shown a significant drop-off in play. Smith is one of those guys who has been underpaid throughout most of his career, even though he has surpassed 75 million in career earnings. I think he may shoot for one more multi-year deal, and a veteran team looking to get their pass rush over the hump may be inclined to give it to him. Smith could be in line for a deal similar to the ones Cameron Jordan and JJ Watt got in their thirties.

Final Projection: 2 years 28 million (14 APY). 15 million fully guaranteed at signing.

24.  Chase Young (San Francisco 49ers EDGE):

            Chase Young played 16 games this season, and it paid off in a big way. Young registered 66 pressures and 7.5 sacks, along with a 15.1% pass-rush win rate. You add that up with the fact that Young will still be relatively young (pun intended), just 24 next March, and the sky is still the limit for the former number two overall pick. While some view Young as a trade rental, a third-round pick is still significant compensation that may cause the 49ers to think twice before they let him walk, even with the abundance of compensatory picks they have coming their way. Young may follow in Marcus Davenport’s footsteps (even though it didn’t work for Davenport) by taking a one-year deal to build his value into a top-tier edge rusher deal in 2025.

Final Projection: 1 year 14 million (14 APY) with a maximum value of 15 million. 10 million fully guaranteed at signing.

25.  Gabe Davis (Buffalo Bills WR):

            Gabe Davis is a bit of an enigma. Davis had five games with zero catches this season to go along with three 100-yard receiving games. It is hard to gauge how teams will view his disappearing and reappearing act when it's contract time, and I am not sure if he fits any team or quarterback better than the backyard ball deep throws that Josh Allen sends his way. With that said, Davis has put up strong production in his first four years in the aggregate. He has amassed 163 catches, 2,730 yards, and 27 TDs on 16.7 yards per catch. Davis should be able to earn a contract towards the higher end of recent WR2 deals, and a 3-year deal should allow the young, soon-to-be 25-year-old the opportunity to cash again before he turns 30.

Final Projection: 3 years 39 million (13 APY). 18 million fully guaranteed at signing.

26.  Kam Curl (Washington Commanders S):

            Sometimes, the contract market does you a favor, and that is certainly the case for Kam Curl. His 2020 draft counterpart, Grant Delpit, did Curl a huge favor when he signed a 3-year 36 million dollar in-season extension in December. While Delpit has a much better draft status than Curl (2^nd vs 7^th round), Curl has been much more consistent throughout his rookie contract. Delpit’s deal should set the floor for Kurl. The Commanders' desire to keep Curl through the mini fire sale they had at the trade deadline should also be a leverage point in Kurl’s favor. All Kurl did in his contract year was rack up 111 tackles, play over 1,000 snaps, and give up a measly 0.60 yards per coverage snap. The Commanders may point to Kurl’s lack of ball production in negotiations, but Kurl has been a consistent force for them since being drafted in 2020, and the Commanders should do their best to keep him around as a veteran for this new coaching staff.

Final Projection: 3 years 39 million (13 APY). 15 million fully guaranteed at signing.

27.  D.J. Reader (Cincinnati Bengals IDL):

            D.J. Reader was having a great contract year before he tore his quad, maybe even his best season as a pro. As he heads into his age 30 season with a significant injury recovery in front of him, he’ll face an uphill battle to get the same value he would have gotten if he was healthy. While I am not a doctor by any means, I believe the recovery timeline for a torn quad should be completed before the regular season begins. Through 14 games, Reader accumulated 34 pressures, 22 stops, and posted a top 20 mark for IDL with a 12.9% pass rush win rate. At this stage in his career, you could make the case that Reader still deserves a 3-year deal, but I think the injury will limit him to a two-year deal. With that said, that can also work in Reader’s favor. If Reader can return to his pre-injury form in 2024, he could receive an extension after the 2024 season if he signs a two-year deal this free agency. Ultimately, I think that is the route teams will go with Reader, which gives him the potential to be a solid steal in this free-agent class.

Final Projection: 2 years 26 million (13 APY) with a maximum value of 28 million. 14 million fully guaranteed at signing.

28.  Kyle Dugger (New England Patriots S):

            Kyle Dugger is nothing if not a versatile defender. According to Arjun Menon of PFF, Dugger was the fifth most versatile safety in the NFL this season in terms of where he lined up on the defense. This versatility has been a theme of Dugger’s career throughout his first four seasons. In his contract year, Dugger accumulated 103 tackles, 15 pressures, 2 INTS, and 5 PBUs. Dugger also played 1,116 snaps this season, good for sixth most at the safety position this season. His 9.6% missed tackle rate is also the lowest of his career so far. Dugger’s versatility and durability this season will certainly be rewarded, likely on the free-agent market. Still, his contract valuation is complex, considering he doesn’t perfectly fit the mold of any position or specific player. Fortunately for Dugger, one of his 2020 second-round draft safety counterparts (Grant Delpit) recently signed a new deal he can slightly surpass. It should be noted that Dugger has made an agency change just ahead of free agency, but I don’t expect that to impact his value on the market too much.  

Final Projection: 3 years 37.5 million (12.5 APY). 16 million fully guaranteed at signing.

29.  Sheldon Rankins (Houston Texans IDL):

Sheldon Rankins had a strong contract year after signing a one-year deal with the Texans last offseason. You do not have to look far to find a contract comp for him; his teammate, Maliek Collins, fits a similar bill. Collins got an extension after his 2022 season, where he had 37 pressures and 26 stops in 601 snaps. Rankins finished his 2023 season with 40 pressures and 25 stops on 596 snaps. Rankins is a year older than Collins and will be entering his thirties in his next contract, so his age could offset any additional production for Rankins. However, Rankins will have the opportunity to test the market at a premium position, which could drive up his price a bit.

Final projection: 2 years, 24 million (12 APY) 16 million fully guaranteed at signing.

30.  Saquon Barkley (New York Giants RB):

            The Saquon Barkley contract drama rages on, along with the rest of the RB market. Barkley just completed the 2023 season playing on the franchise tag, and he will not be tagged again this offseason. Unfortunately, Barkley did not have the contract year he hoped for. Barkley averaged a mere 3.9 yards per carry, the second-worst average of his career. He also tied his career high with two fumbles. Nevertheless, Barkley still managed to gain 1,242 yards from scrimmage coupled with 10 TDs from scrimmage this past season. Barkley played just under 65% of snaps this season, and his 2.91 yards per carry ranked 21^st in the NFL. Barkley will be entering his age 27 season with just over 1,200 career carries to his name, so the dreaded 1,500 carry mark is coming. This leads me to believe that Barkley will sign a two-year deal just above the yearly value of the 11.9-million-dollar RB franchise tag. I think he can still do significant damage once Barkley gets a serviceable offensive line, which he lacked this season. Here’s to hoping Barkley gets a fresh start and a nice supporting cast around him that can elevate him back to his 2022 form.

Final Projection: 2 years 24 million (12 APY) with a maximum value of 28 million. 13 million fully guaranteed at signing.

31.  Marquise Brown (Arizona Cardinals WR):

            Marquise Brown requested a trade from the Ravens to the Cardinals in 2022 to build up his value as the time for a new contract approached. Unfortunately, Brown has not been as productive as he hoped he would be in the move to Arizona. In both seasons with the team, Brown has not surpassed 800 receiving yards or 1.45 yards per route run. Brown does have trade bias in his favor, as the Cardinals gave up a first-round pick to get him (they also got a third-rounder in return). The Cardinals have used the transition tag before (on Kenyan Drake), so that could be in play, but I don’t think brown has earned the value of that tag with his play. Brown is still more valuable to the Cardinals than any other team, so he should be able to sign a sizable one-year deal to rebuild his value. DJ Chark’s 2022 free-agent deal adjusted for cap inflation is a good comparison for him. Another interesting comparison for Brown is Haason Reddick…now hear me out: Reddick and Brown are represented by the same agent. After a rough couple of years with the Cardinals, Reddick signed a one-year deal in free agency. He then parlayed that into a three-year deal once he significantly increased his value. I think WR1 money is still on the table for the 27-year-old Brown if he takes this approach to rebuilding his value.

Final Projection: 1 year 12 million (12 APY) with a maximum value of 16 million. 12 million fully guaranteed at signing.

32.  Frankie Luvu (Carolina Panthers LB):

            Frankie Luvu has had an unorthodox path in his career, but he is about to make some major money. Luvu went undrafted in 2018 and signed seven different contracts with the Jets before making his way over to the Panthers on a one-year deal. From there, Luvu started to shine. He turned his one-year deal into a two-year, nine-million-dollar deal, and now he is on the cusp of a double-digit APY deal in free agency. Luvu finished the 2023 season with 122 tackles, 20 pressures, and 5.5 sacks. Luvu can make plays all over the field. As he heads into his age 28 season, he should see a deal that just surpasses Bobby Okereke’s 4 year 40 million dollar deal from last offseason.

Final Projection: 4 years 44 million (11 APY). 22 million fully guaranteed at signing.

33.  Robert Hunt (Miami Dolphins Guard):

            When he was on the field, Robert Hunt was very good for the Dolphins this year. In 329 pass-blocking snaps, Hunt gave up just five pressures. Unfortunately, Hunt has dealt with a few nagging injuries this year that have limited his playing time to just 50% of snaps this season. Durability should not be too big of a concern, though, Hunt played close to 100% of snaps in the two seasons before this one. When factoring in Hunt’s strong play with his second-round draft capital at a rising position of importance, he should see a nice payday this offseason similar to what Nate Davis got from the Bears last offseason. Davis also did not play a full snap load in his contract year but was a mainstay on the Titans' offensive line as a former third-round pick. His situation presents similarly to the position Hunt is in, so Davis should be a comp for Hunt in free agency.

Final Projection: 3 years 33 million (11 APY). 20 million fully guaranteed at signing.

34.  Jonah Williams (Cincinnati Bengals OT):

            Jonah Williams has had an up-and-down time since he entered the league as the 11^th overall pick in the 2019 draft. The Bengals shifted him over to right tackle in a contract year after they acquired Orlando Brown Jr. in free agency last year. In the last three seasons, Williams has given up an average of 9 sacks and 42 pressures per season. You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to know those numbers aren’t great. Williams does have a few things going for him though. He has played over 1,000 snaps in each of the last three seasons, has shown an ability to play both tackle positions, is a former first-round pick, and is only entering his age 27 season. It won’t be hard to convince a few teams in an O-line talent-deprived league that Williams could help a new team with better coaching and more stability. There aren’t too many contract comps for Williams, but his situation is somewhat analogous to Kaleb McGary and Austin Jackson. The best comp of all, though, is none other than Andre Dillard. Dillard signed a 3-year 29 million dollar deal last offseason after playing sparingly throughout his rookie deal. The commonality between Dillard and Williams is that they share the same agency, which should help Williams navigate his interesting situation. Even though Dillard had a potential hidden talent allure, we’ve seen much more film from Williams. I have to believe Williams can get a better deal than Dillard. The question for Williams is if a team is willing to give him a multi-year deal, and if he is willing to take a multi-year instead of a one-year deal. Ultimately, I think he does get a multi-year deal.

Final Projection: 3 years 33 million (11 APY) with a maximum value of 36 million. 12 million fully guaranteed at signing.

35.  Grover Stewart (Indianapolis Colts IDL):

Grover Stewart most closely compares to David Onyemata. Both guys are in their thirties, Onyemata just got his third contract last year, Stewart should get his third contract this year, and both were suspended for six games in their contract years. Where they differ is their impact on the field. Onyemata is more of a pass-rushing interior defensive lineman, while Stewart is more of a stout run defender. Stewart had 38 stops last year (a top ten mark in the NFL) and put up 24 this year with a top 10 run defense grade from PFF, even though he sat six games for his suspension. Stewart’s new deal should fall just short of Onyemata but should be a slight raise from Stewart’s second contract.

Final projection: 3 years 33 million (11 APY). 18 million fully guaranteed at signing.

36.  Kendall Fuller (Washington Commanders CB):

            Kendall Fuller had a somewhat steady year, considering the state of the Commanders defense as a whole. Fuller just finished his third consecutive year of 1,000 snaps at the CB position, he gave up just 0.77 yards per coverage snap this year and snagged 2 INTs with 5 PBUs. Fuller also kept his missed tackle rate at single digits for the fifth year in a row. He did give up a career-high 6 TDs, but that can be partially attributed to the play around him. Fuller is still a good player as he enters his age 29 season, and he should be able to capitalize on that in this next contract before he hits his thirties. Fuller should hope to make more money per year than he did on the contract he signed in 2020 (10 APY). Fuller is the same age and is coming off similar production as James Bradberry was last year, so Bradberry should set the ceiling for Fuller this year.

Final Projection: 3 years 33 million (11 APY). 15 million fully guaranteed at signing.

37.  Josh Jacobs (Las Vegas Raiders RB):

            Josh Jacobs crashed back down to earth after his rushing title in 2022. Jacobs posted a career-low 3.5 yards per carry on a career-low 805 rushing yards, along with a career-high with three fumbles. Jacobs's 2.35 yards after contact per attempt was also a career low. Jacobs is only entering his age 26 season though, and he is one year removed from an all-pro season, but he is quickly approaching 1,500 carries. I think Jacobs can squeeze out a two-year deal in free agency with hopes that he will return to his 2022 form.

Final Projection: 2 years 22 million (11 APY) with a maximum value of 26 million. 10 million fully guaranteed at signing.

38.  Dalton Schultz (Houston Texans TE):

Dalton Schultz had a bounce-back season with the Houston Texans; he made the most of his one-year deal coming off the franchise tag and no long-term deal in Dallas. He had the second-most receiving yards in his career (635), the highest yards per catch in his career (10.8), and the second-most first-down receptions in his career (35). He proved to be a nice weapon for CJ Stroud in his rookie year, and he should be able to parlay this season into a multi-year deal. I expect Schultz to receive significant interest on the open market, which should make it challenging for Houston to retain him. As Schultz enters his age 28 season, he’ll be looking at a two-year deal just under the top tier of tight end deals that the top tier got right after their rookie deal.

Final Projection: 2 years 22 million (11 APY) with a maximum value of 24 million. 12 million fully guaranteed at signing.

39.  Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans RB):

            Derrick Henry just completed his seventh season in a row with over 200 rushing attempts and still led the NFL in rushing attempts with 280. He’s well over 2,000 carries in his career, but he still had over 1,300 scrimmage yards, 14 TDs, and no fumbles this season. He even put up top ten marks in yards per carry after contact (3.32) and missed tackles forced (57) this season. He accomplished all of that behind a rough Tennessee Titans offensive line this season, but he will be 30 next season. Teams will wonder when the injuries and drop-off are coming, so I can’t imagine he signs anything longer than a two-year deal. Because Henry is still significantly productive, and because of the buzz his name will draw as a signing, I think he will be able to sign a double-digit APY deal this upcoming free agency. That would be an extremely rare feat for a RB to sign his third contract at age 30, which is a testament to the greatness of Derrick Henry.

Final Projection: 2 years 20 million (10 APY) with a maximum value of 22 million. 10 million fully guaranteed at signing.

40.  Fletcher Cox (Philadelphia Eagles IDL):

            Fletcher Cox is well on his way to earning a third straight one-year deal with the Eagles.  He put together another good season playing all 17 games, accumulating 49 pressures, 5 sacks, and maintaining a solid 11.3% pass rush win rate. Cox is entering his age 34 season, so he’ll be a year-to-year player similar to how the Eagles have treated Jason Kelce towards the final stretch of his career. Cox has shown no signs of slowing down, so his 2024 deal should look very similar to his 2023 deal, and it will be well-earned.

Final Projection: 1 year 9.5 million (9.5 APY) with a maximum value of 11 million. 9.5 million fully guaranteed at signing.

41.  Lloyd Cushenberry III (Denver Broncos C):

            Lloyd Cushenberry III had his strongest season as a pro this year. Since being drafted in the third round of the 2020 draft, he has had three seasons where he has played over 1,000 snaps, which is no easy feat at a position that is notoriously difficult to acclimate to from college to the NFL. Cushenberry III enters a robust free-agent center market at just 26 years old, so it won’t be hard to sell teams on the idea that his best football is ahead of him. Cushenberry III is solid in both the run and the passing game. He was charted with giving up just one sack this season. Because there is a large gap between the first and second-tier center market (12 vs. 6ish APY), I expect Cushenberry III to land between those numbers. His agency will have considerable wiggle room to convince teams of a valuation on the higher side of those two numbers.

Final Projection: 3 years 27 million (9 APY). 18 million fully guaranteed at signing.

42.  Jermaine Eluemunor (Las Vegas Raiders OT):

            Jermaine Eluemunor has proven to be a late bloomer in his career. After not starting on his rookie contract, Eluemunor has started at right tackle for the Raiders for the last two years. Over the past two seasons, on average, he has given up 27 pressures a year, which is solid. He has received a good amount of help from chips and scheme, but Eluemunor should be able to sign a decent contract as he heads into his thirties this year. The NFL always looks for offensive linemen to pay, and Eluemunor should benefit from that. His deal should resemble the deal Andrew Wylie got from the Commanders last year.

Final Projection: 3 years 27 million (9 APY). 13 million fully guaranteed at signing.

43.  Hunter Henry (New England Patriots TE):

            Hunter Henry was somewhat able to overcome the Patriots offensive struggles this year by leading the team in receiving touchdowns (6) and first-down receptions (29), while ranking second in yards (419), receptions (42), and targets (61). I am certain more than a few teams will be interested in Henry this offseason and can envision an uptick in his production in a more consistent offense. That said, I think the Patriots would also like to retain him for whatever rookie quarterback they draft in April. Keeping all that in mind, I think Henry will still be able to command a significant market as he enters his age 30 season. Tyler Higbee kicked off the veteran tight end market with his 2-year 8.5 APY in-season extension, and I believe the 2-year trend will continue for veteran tight ends in free agency. I expect Henry to command more than Higbee got while remaining under the 12.5 APY he signed in New England a few years ago.

Final Projection: 2 years 18 million (9 APY) with a maximum value of 20 million. 12 million fully guaranteed at signing.

44.  Connor Williams (Miami Dolphins C):

            Connor Williams was one of the best centers in the NFL before he tore his ACL at the beginning of December. Williams was having the best season of his career and really started to flex his muscles at the center position since making the switch from guard, which is what he played with the Cowboys at the start of his career. Williams does have a few things going for him. He’ll be just 27 years old next season and has almost 2 full seasons of excellent film at center. That said, the free-agent talent at center is pretty strong this year, so teams may opt for a healthier option at center this offseason. Williams could be healthy to start next season, but team doctors should play a role in how comfortable the Dolphins, or another team, feels about dishing out a multi-year deal to Williams. It’s always difficult to decipher how teams will deal with injured guys, but I think Williams may be able to snag another two-year deal this offseason.

Final Projection: 2 years 18 million (9 APY). 9 million fully guaranteed at signing. 

45.  Jadeveon Clowney (Baltimore Ravens EDGE):

Jadeveon Clowney was one of the best bargain players of the entire NFL season. While Clowney did earn significant incentives with his stellar play, his base salary this year was only 2.5 million. Clowney accumulated 71 pressures (11^th in the NFL), a 17.6% pass rush win rate (15^th), and 9.5 sacks (25^th) in the regular season. Clowney was arguably the second-best bargain as a pass rusher in the entire NFL (behind Madubuike); he had roughly 28 pressures per million dollars in base salary this season. I fully expect Clowney to sign his sixth consecutive one-year deal this off-season but for a much higher base salary than last year. I think Clowney will have a few natural market ceilings in Yannick Ngakoue (younger than Clowney), Za’Darius Smith (more consistently productive than Clowney), and even Clowney’s own 10-million-dollar deal from 2022.

Final Projection: 1 year 9 million (9 APY) with a maximum value of 12 million. 8 million fully guaranteed at signing.

46.  Dorance Armstrong (Dallas Cowboys EDGE):

            Dorance Armstrong is getting set to sign his third contract at just 26 years old. After his rookie deal, he signed a 2-year, 12-million-dollar agreement to remain with the Cowboys. Since that deal, Armstrong has registered 16 sacks, 74 pressures, and 45 stops as a rotational edge rusher, hovering around 300 pass-rush snaps in each of the past two seasons. Armstrong’s previous deal should set a nice floor for his deal this upcoming free agency after accounting for cap inflation. Armstrong’s deal should come in right around the deals Samson Ebukam and Arden Key got last year in free agency as solid rotational pass rushers.

Final Projection: 3 years 24 million (8 APY) with a maximum value of 25 million. 12 million fully guaranteed at signing.

47.  Noah Fant (Seattle Seahawks TE):

Noah Fant has never quite lived up to his first-round bill, but he’s been a pretty productive player his first five years in the league. Fant has racked up close to 3k receiving yards and 14 touchdowns, and he’ll only be 26 this offseason. Fant will be one of the top free agent TE options, alongside Hunter Henry and Dalton Schultz, but he’s at least a year and a half younger than both. In recent years, the free agent market has been kind to tight ends, giving moderate producers 7-8 million-dollar-a-year deals. I think Fant should be able to get a deal right around that ballpark after playing out all five years of his rookie deal.

Final Projection: 3 years 24 million (8 APY) with a maximum value of 27 million. 11 million fully guaranteed at signing.

48.  Andrew Van Ginkel (Miami Dolphins EDGE)

            Andrew Van Ginkel has taken full advantage of more snaps in Miami this season. He accumulated 53 pressures, 6 sacks, and boasted a top ten pass rush win rate mark of 18.2%. Van Ginkel is not just a pass rusher either; he posted top 25 marks in both his run-defense grade and stops (31) this season, according to PFF. Van Ginkel will be 29 next season though, and his 2021 and 2023 seasons are far better than the other three seasons in his five-year career, but that can be attributed in part to the increased roles he took on in 2021 and 2023. Overall, I think Van Ginkel has earned a nice contract after stepping up in a major way in 2023. Van Ginkel may look for a starting role outside of Miami to stay on the field as much as possible going forward, but all of Miami’s EDGE injuries could change that outlook.

Final Projection: 3 years 24 million (8 APY) with incentives up to 27 million. 12 million fully guaranteed at signing.

49.  D.J. Wonnum (Minnesota Vikings EDGE):

            DJ Wonnum had a pretty strong contract year.  In 15 games this season, Wonnum registered 38 pressures, 32 stops, and 8 sacks. His season was cut short by a torn quad, and the status of his injury could play a factor in his valuation depending on how far along he is in rehab and whether teams expect him to make a full recovery. Wonnum also posted a mediocre 8.2% pass rush win rate. Nonetheless, Wonnum tied his career high in sacks and had his best season as a run defender. Assuming his health checks out, he should be a quality edge addition to a team this free agency.

Final Projection: 3 years 24 million (8 APY). 12 million fully guaranteed at signing.

50.  Aaron Brewer (Tennessee Titans C):

            2023 was Aaron Brewer’s first season playing full-time at center, and one could argue he was the only bright spot for the Titans offensive line this season. He has played almost 100% of snaps in each of the last two seasons and graded out as PFF’s sixth highest graded run blocking center this season. Brewer’s guard/center versatility and youth (only 26) should be a solid addition to the free-agent center market this offseason. A handful of free-agent centers signed deals in the 5-6 APY range last year. I expect Brewer to receive a deal just above that tier after accounting for cap inflation.

Final Projection: 3 years 24 million (8 APY). 12 million fully guaranteed at signing.

51.  Steven Nelson (Houston Texans CB):

            Nelson wanted an extension last offseason, but settled for a slight raise and an opportunity to test the market in 2024. That decision seems to have paid dividends. Nelson surpassed 1,000 snaps for the fifth time in his career. He allowed 0.92 yards per coverage snap, one touchdown, and tied his single-season career high with 4 interceptions to go along with 6 pass breakups. The only thing pushing against Nelson is his age. He’ll be 31 this offseason. Last offseason, Jonathan Jones and Patrick Peterson both signed deals that keep them under contract well into their early thirties, so they are natural contract comps for Nelson. Their two-year frameworks should be a benchmark for Nelson.

Final projection: 2 years, 16 million (8 APY). 8 million fully guaranteed at signing.

52.  Denico Autry (Tennessee Titans EDGE):

            Denico Autry is aging like fine wine. Autry put up a career-high 11.5 sacks in his age-33 season to go along with 53 pressures, 28 stops, and an 11.1% pass rush win rate. Autry has arguably earned a raise from his previous 3 year 21.5 million dollar deal even as he enters his age 34 season. There aren’t too many pass rushers producing to the level Autry is at his age, so his contract would be setting a precedent rather than following it. Nonetheless, I think a team gives him a sizeable two-year deal.

Final Projection: 2 years 16 million (8 APY) with a maximum value of 18 million. 9 million fully guaranteed at signing.

53.  Kevin Zeitler (Baltimore Ravens OG):

            Kevin Zeitler wanted a new deal prior to the 2023 season, but the Ravens opted not to extend him. Zeitler had another strong season this year, giving up only 2 sacks and 19 pressures, but Zeitler missed two games this season and is entering his age 34 season. Teams will have to balance Zeitler’s above-average play with his age when they consider offers for him this free agency. I think Zeitler will push hard to make a hair above his previous 7.5 APY, and he could get it in a market that is starting to value guards more as interior defensive line play grows more dominant.

Final Projection: 2 years 16 million (8 APY). 8 million fully guaranteed at signing.

54.  Darnell Mooney (Chicago Bears WR):

            Darnell Mooney is going to want to sign a one-year deal in free agency. After putting up 81/1,055/4 on 13 yards per catch in 2021, Mooney has not come close to replicating that season in the last two years. In fact, Mooney’s last two years combined fall short of his 2021 production. The 26-year-old still has a lot of good football left in him though, he just needs to find the right situation to maximize his value in 2024. He is represented by the same agency that did the one-year deals for DJ Chark and Will Fuller, so I expect Mooney’s deal to fall into a similar range

Final Projection: 1 year 8 million (8 APY) with a maximum value of 10 million. 7 million fully guaranteed at signing.

55.  Kenny Moore (Indianapolis Colts CB):

            Kenny Moore has wanted a new contract for as long as I can remember. He knows it is contract time too. PFF gave him the highest grade of his career this season (77.4). That is backed up by 1.0 yards per coverage snap, 3 interceptions (2 pick sixes), and 2 PBUs. He’s also been helpful in run support this season with 88 tackles. This is all good and dandy, but Moore will reach the dreaded 30 years old this year. The Colts made him the highest-paid slot corner in the NFL back in 2019, and you could argue he has maintained that status throughout his deal (you could say otherwise with a few players who have shown inside/outside versatility). I think Jonathan Jones of the Patriots will set the ceiling for Moore. Both guys are in their thirties, and Jones played in the slot most of his career, before taking on more responsibility outside his contract year. Because of that added responsibility and because Jones was a year younger than Moore will be at the time of signing, Moore should slot below Jones when he signs a new deal.

Final projection: 2 years 15 million (7.5 APY) with a maximum value of 18 million. 10 million fully guaranteed at signing.

56.  Gardner Minshew (Indianapolis Colts QB):

            At this point in his career, we know exactly who Gardner Minshew is. He’s an elite backup who can keep you in most games with a good supporting cast around him. He had the best season of his career and kept the Colts in the playoff hunt. He’s also very reckless; he had the eighth-highest turnover-worthy play % in the NFL. I think the Colts will want to keep him (and hope to never see him play beyond this year; please get healthy Anthony Richardson). He should command a deal similar to the one Taylor Heinicke got last offseason, as both guys are top backups in the NFL.

Final Projection: 2 years 15 million (7.5 APY). 8 million fully guaranteed at signing.

57.  Jordan Fuller (Los Angeles Rams S):

It’s nice to see Jordan Fuller healthy and playing well in a contract year. Fuller played over 1,000 for the second time in his career and even played 70% of defensive snaps as a sixth-round rookie in 2020. Fuller finished the regular season with 91 tackles and has maintained a low 9.6% missed tackle rate throughout the first four years of his career. Fuller has set a career-high in interceptions (3) and pass breakups (5). Fuller has been lock down in coverage this year, allowing just 56.8% of targets to be caught with him in primary coverage, which is a top-ten mark at the safety position (min. 300 snaps). The Rams let Taylor Rapp and Nick Scott walk last offseason, but I believe they’ll want to retain Fuller if they can. Overall, Fuller has been a strong tackler and productive in coverage this year. He could be looking at a contract like the one Juan Thornhill got last year. Entering his age-26 season next year, Fuller has earned a nice three-year contract that should carry him through his prime.

Final Projection: 3 years 22.5 million (7.5 APY). 15 million fully guaranteed at signing.

58.  Andre James (Las Vegas Raiders C):

            Andre James is about to earn his third contract heading into his age 27 season after having played close to 100% of snaps at center for the Raiders in the last three seasons. Consistency isn’t the only thing James has going for him this free agency, he is also coming off his best season as a pro. The former undrafted free agent should see a nice raise from his previous 2-year 8.65-million-dollar deal on his next deal. James should slot in under the deals Aaron Brewer and Lloyd Cushebnerry III get this offseason. Similar to the safety market, the center market has small clusters of guys who could all sign similar looking deals this year.

Final Projection: 3 years 21 million (7 APY). 11 million fully guaranteed at signing.

59.  Tony Pollard (Dallas Cowboys RB):

            Tony Pollard did not have a great 2023 season compared to his 2022 season. Pollard rushed for over 1,000 yards on just 193 carries in 2022, which was good for a stellar 5.2 yards per carry, of which 3.82 yards per carry were after contact. In 2023, Pollard still rushed for 1,000 yards, but his yards per carry dropped to 4.0, and his yards per carry after contact dropped almost a full yard down to 2.92.  Pollard added 55 catches to his 2023 resume and did not miss a game all season. Pollard is only turning 27 and has just 762 career carries to his name. A team may buy into his potential to regain explosiveness a year removed from his leg injury, which means a substantial deal could be on the table for Pollard.

Final Projection: 3 years 21 million (7 APY) with a maximum value of 27 million. 10 million fully guaranteed at signing.

60.  Geno Stone (Baltimore Ravens S):

            Geno Stone has been one of the best storylines of the NFL season. The former seventh-round pick entered 2023 on his eighth contract in four years, almost all with the Ravens. He had a tremendous breakout season this year, playing just under 1,000 snaps and snagging 7 INTs, which was the second-highest amount in the NFL. Stone’s best football seems to be ahead of him; he’s entering his age-25 season coming off a breakout year where he showed excellent ball skills and good coverage range on the backend, primarily as a free safety. It might be hard for Baltimore to retain him unless he takes a discount because they already have Marcus Williams on a 14 APY deal, Marlon Humphrey on a 19.5 APY deal, and Kyle Hamilton’s market-resetting extension is coming after next season. Whether Stone is back in Baltimore or moves on elsewhere, he has been the beneficiary of a huge contract year and has earned every penny coming his way.

Final Projection: 3 years 21 million (7 APY) with a maximum value of 24 million. 12 million fully guaranteed at signing.

61.  Tyquan Lewis (Indianapolis Colts EDGE):

            Tyquan Lewis has a career year in his sixth season, he put up 44 pressures and 4 sacks. His most impressive stat was a 17.1% pass rush win rate. He should be in line for more pass rush snaps than the 259 he had with the Colts this season and could be a nice bargain for someone in free agency if he builds off his 2023 season.

Final Projection: 2 years 14 million (7 APY) with a maximum value of 16 million. 7 million fully guaranteed at signing.

62.  Austin Ekeler (Las Angeles Chargers RB):

            Austin Ekeler had the worst season of his career last year. He missed three games, only rushed for 632 yards on 3.5 yards per carry and he had 5 fumbles. His 2.63 yards per carry after contact was also a career low. Fortunately for Ekeler, he is still one of the best pass-catching RBs in the NFL, which should salvage his value. As Ekeler enters his age 29 season, I think teams will only offer him a two-year deal, not any longer.

Final Projection: 2 years 14 million (7 APY) with a maximum value of 16 million. 7 million fully guaranteed at signing.

63.  Azeez Al-Shaair (Tennessee Titans LB):

Azeez Al-Shaair followed Ran Carthon to Tennessee last offseason, and it certainly paid off from a production standpoint. Al-Shaair played 96% of snaps this season (~ 30% more than any other season in his career) to the tune of 157 tackles and 12 pressures. His 108 solo tackles were the sixth most in the league this year. Al-Shaair signed a one-year five million dollar deal last year, so that would be a good starting point for his negotiations to build on for a multi-year deal. Another deal of reference could be David Long Jr., who left Tennessee for Miami on a two-year 10 million dollar deal last year. I expect Al-Shaair to sign for a bit more than Long Jr. this free agency.

Final Projection: 2 years 14 million (7 APY). 8 million fully guaranteed at signing.

64.  Curtis Samuel (Washington Commanders WR):

            Curtis Samuel just wrapped up his 7^th NFL season at only 27 years old. He remains a good WR3 option. He slashed 62/613/4 with only 4 drops on the season. He also tied a career high with 9 contested catches. Samuel may look for new opportunities outside of Washington, and he should be able to sign a two year deal that takes him right up to his thirties.

Final Projection: 2 years 14 million (7 APY). 6 million fully guaranteed at signing.

65.  Ryan Tannehill (Tennessee Titans QB):

            Ryan Tannehill started nine games for the Titans this season. The missed time was due to injuries and losing his job to Will Levis upon return from injury. Tannehill averaged a mere 177 passing yards per game to go along with 4 TDs, 7 INTs, only 10 big-time throws, and 11 turnover-worthy plays in gameplay this season. Tannehill’s days as a starter are likely over. However, that should not preclude him from a solid deal as a top-tier backup or bridge QB in free agency. I think a one-year pact awaits Tannehill this free agency, likely in the ballpark of what Jacoby Brissett got last season.

Final Projection: 1 year 7 million (7 APY) with a maximum value of 10 million. 6 million fully guaranteed at signing.

66.  Jacoby Brissett (Washington Commanders QB):

            Jacoby Brissett did not play often in 2023, but he looked pretty good in the two games he played in. Brissett did not get the opportunity to start this year as he hoped after a strong showing with the Cleveland Browns in 2022, but he may still be the best backup QB in the NFL. I expect him to sign roughly the same deal he signed last year, although slightly less. Brissett is still a good option for a QB competition and can certainly win games as a strong backup in the event of an injury to a starter.

Final Projection: 1 year 7 million (7 APY) with a maximum value of 9 million. 6 million fully guaranteed at signing.

67.  Stephon Gilmore (Dallas Cowboys CB):

            This season was the first year since his Buffalo Bill days where Stephon Gilmore gave up more than 1.0 yards per coverage snap. The 2012 first-rounder has been stellar throughout his career and has been a great example of durability and consistency at a position known for volatility. Still, age may finally catch him as he heads into his age-34 season. Gilmore is still a sure-handed tackler and is more than capable of playing significant snaps on defense, but teams should be weary of paying him at the rate of a full-time starter. A return to Dallas could be a good option for him as he provides insurance for Bland and Diggs but isn’t asked to be the guy in the secondary. As for his contract, he is likely entering one-year territory. A few aging corners have been able to squeak out two-year deals in the 7-9 APY range, and that’s just about where I expect Gilmore to land, albeit on a one-year deal

Final Projection: 1 year 7 million (7 APY) with a maximum value of 8 million. 6 million fully guaranteed at signing.

68.  Julian Blackmon (Indianapolis Colts S):

            An injury unfortunately derailed Julian Blackmon’s strong contract year. He still played just under 1,000 snaps this season on defense while snagging a career-high four interceptions to go along with his 88 tackles. He was on pace to play over 1,100 snaps this season before the injury, so he rarely left the field. His missed tackle rate is a mere 7.4%, a top 15 mark in the NFL. Blackmon has earned one of those solid three-year deals that quality starting safeties have gotten in recent years.

Final projection: 3 years 18 million (6 APY). 10 million fully guaranteed at signing.

69.  Anfernee Jennings (New England Patriots EDGE):

            No one will confuse Anfernee Jennings’ 21 pressures and 1.5 sacks as elite production as a pass rusher, but he is one of the best run-defending edge players in the NFL. Jennings finished the regular season tied for the fifth most stops for an EDGE player in the entire NFL with 46. The company just above him is Maxx Crosby, Khalil Mack, Danielle Hunter, T.J. Watt, and Carl Granderson. Jennings played at least 200 snaps less than everyone else above him on that list. Jennings was also PFF’s fifth highest-rated run defender for his position. Jennings is entering his age 27 season, coming off a pretty big breakout, but run defenders never get the money that pass rushers do come contract time. Regardless of that, Jennings has earned himself a solid payday and should make any team much better vs the run on day one. Jennings is the third patriot to make an agent change with free agency on the horizon. Time will tell if the move pays off for him.

Final Projection: 3 years 18 million (6 APY) with a maximum value of 21 million. 12 million fully guaranteed at signing.

70.  Ahkello Witherspoon (Los Angeles Rams CB):

            Ahkello Witherspoon hadn’t played over 32% of defensive snaps from 2020-2022. This year, he played 93% of defensive snaps for the Rams and has been a great value for them on a veteran minimum deal. In his starting action this season, Witherspoon allowed 1.07 yards per coverage snap, a 49% completion rate, and snagged three interceptions along with 10 pass breakups. Witherspoon did give up 5 TDs and just over 700 yards receiving, so it has been a solid but not great year. Witherspoon will be entering his age 29 season next year but should be able to capitalize on this late breakout in the seventh season of his career.

Final Projection: 1 year 6 million (6 APY). 3 million fully guaranteed at signing.

71.  Jordan Whitehead (New York Jets S):

            Jordan Whitehead restructured his deal last offseason to avoid being a cap casualty, and he had a few career highs in good and bad areas. Whitehead snagged a career-high 4 INTs this year, but three came in week one. He also missed a career-high 20 tackles and gave up a career-high 7 TDs. Whitehead has been durable, though, playing over 90% of defensive snaps for the Jets in the last two seasons. Whitehead opted for a two-year deal the last time he was a free agent, and I could see that being the case again this time around. Whitehead should land in that average-quality starter safety market we have seen develop over the last few years, specifically something similar to what Marcus Epps and Julian Love got last year.

Final Projection: 2 years 12 million (6 APY) with a maximum value of 13 million. 6 million fully guaranteed at signing.

72.  Trent Brown (New England Patriots OT):

            Trent Brown had an up-and-down season, but he is still a valuable, starting-caliber tackle heading into his age-31 season. Unfortunately, Brown has been playing the Patriots contract game for the last few years, so he’s been taking a considerable discount compared to many other veteran tackles across the league. I am not sure how willing Brown will be to return to New England, but hopefully, his contract will be more straightforward and less incentive-based wherever he signs it. Brown only played 55% of snaps this year but allowed only 17 pressures in 11 games. Brown will likely be one of those players who is hamstrung by his prior contract value (1 year, 6.5 million). Teams will likely anchor to and work slightly above this number, which should make Brown a great value add if he can stay healthy and play an entire season to the level he is capable of.

Final Projection: 2 years 12 million (6 APY) with a maximum value of 18 million. 6 million fully guaranteed at signing.

73.  Josh Uche (New England Patriots EDGE):

Josh Uche probably wishes he was a free agent after the 2022-2023 season. Uche had only 3 sacks last year compared to 11.5 in 2022. He also registered only 37 pressures compared to 56 in 2022, and his pass rush win rate was only 11.1% this year compared to a staggering 19.2% in 2022. Needless to say, his production has been down across the board. Uche is also a pass rush specialist; New England did not let him do much more. He has rushed the passer on roughly 70% of his total snaps the last two seasons, and he only plays about 25 snaps a game. All of these negatives point to one thing: a one-year prove-it deal. Uche needs to prove in 2024 that he can get back to pass-rushing dominance, play more snaps, and play more consistently. If he can do those things in his upcoming age-26 season, he will be in great shape to cash in more than he is right now.

Final Projection: 1 year 6 million (6 APY) with a maximum value of 10 million. 4 million fully guaranteed at signing.

74.  Devin White (Tampa Bay Buccaneers LB):

            Devin White has not lived up to the bill since the Buccaneers took him 5^th overall in the 2019 draft, and that’s putting it nicely. Devin White’s production has largely been a product of volume, but he 566 tackles, 23 sacks, and 3 INTs through his first five years. White is probably looking for a change of scenery in free agency, and some teams will be willing to take a chance on the talented 26-year-old.

Final Projection: 1 year 6 million (6 APY) with a maximum value of 9 million. 4 million fully guaranteed at signing.

75.  Bobby Wagner (Seattle Seahawks LB):

            Bobby Wagner just completed his fifth straight season playing over 1,000 snaps. He was as productive in the box score as any season he’s ever had, although that does not tell the whole story. Wagner posted 180 tackles, 17 pressures, and 71 stops this season after agreeing to a 1 one 5.5-million-dollar deal to return to the Seahawks last offseason. Wagner is still a good football player, even as he enters his age 34 season, but he is slowing down a bit. I expect him to sign another one-year deal this offseason similar to the one he signed last year. On a side note, Wagner is the only player I know of who solely represents himself in contract negotiations, and he just surpassed 100 million in career earnings, so congratulations to him. Other players claim to represent themselves but often have a team of advisors around them who do the heavy lifting. Those advisors just don’t carry the “agent” label. To my knowledge, Wagner is self-educated and does the heavy lifting himself, so kudos to him.

Final Projection: 1 year 6 million (6 APY) with a maximum value of 8 million. 6 million fully guaranteed at signing.

76.  Javon Kinlaw (San Francisco 49ers IDL):

            Javon Kinlaw is finally turning a bit of a corner in his career. The 2020 first-round draft pick has struggled greatly in his first few years in the league, both with injuries and on-the-field play. After having his fifth-year option declined heading into this year, Kinlaw has salvaged some of his value before free agency in the spring. He tallied up to 31 pressures, 3.5 sacks, and a 10.3% pass rush win rate, playing roughly 30 snaps a game this season. Kinlaw will likely look to sign a one-year deal to give him another year to build up his value.

Final Projection: 1 year 6 million (6 APY) with a maximum value of 8 million. 4 million fully guaranteed at signing.

77.  Calais Campbell (Atlanta Falcons IDL):

            Calais Campbell is an ageless wonder who just wrapped up a solid 16^th season. 2023 is his 14^th season in 16 years where he’s accumulated more than 30 pressures. He’s still playing over 60% of defensive snaps to go along with his 42 pressures, 36 stops, 6.5 sacks, and an 11.8% pass rush win rate. Campbell should be an affordable addition who can still contribute at a premium position and be a guy who brings excellent leadership to any team he joins. I would expect another one-year deal for him, around the same amount he signed for last year.

Final Projection: 1 year 6 million with a maximum value of 7.5 million. 6 million fully guaranteed at signing.

78.  Ezra Cleveland (Jacksonville Jaguars OG):

            Cleveland has had a less-than-stellar contract year. He missed some time in 2023 due to injury, and he was traded at the deadline from the Vikings to the Jaguars. He struggled to get acclimated in Jacksonville. I could see Cleveland taking a one-year deal to rebuild his value before signing a multi-year extension next offseason.

Final projection: 1 year 6 million (6 APY). with a maximum value of 7 million. 3 million fully guaranteed at signing.

79.  Micah Hyde (Buffalo Bills S):

            Micah Hyde won’t have to look far for a contract comp as he enters free agency. His Bills running mate, Jordan Poyer, signed a comparable deal last off-season. After briefly testing the market, Poyer returned to the Bills on a 2-year 12.5-million-dollar deal with 6.25 million fully guaranteed deal. Hyde will be a year older than Poyer was when he signed his deal, which should go against Hyde in contract talks. Outside of that, both players have produced at similar levels in most statistical categories. I think Hyde will sign a deal just short of Poyer’s deal last season, which should keep the duo together for at least one more year.

Final Projection: 2 years 11.5 million (5.75 APY) with a maximum value of 13 million. 6 million fully guaranteed at signing.

80.  Jordan Hicks (Minnesota Vikings LB):

            Jordan Hicks put together a strong season of 112 tackles, 14 pressures, an INT, and 2 PBUs in just 13 games this year. Hicks even earned Player of the Week honors back in week six. This production came off the heels of Hicks taking a 1.5 million dollar pay cut heading into the 2023 season; Hicks was scheduled to make 5 million in 2023 but instead made 3.5. Even though Hicks is entering his age 32 season, I think he can get back to his pre-pay cut money in free agency this year and should still be able to contribute to a defense as a solid starter. Hicks has signed two, two-year-long deals in his career, but I think that might be a stretch given his age and because of the higher risk of injured, somewhat evidenced by the four games he missed this season.

Final Projection: 1 year 5.5 million (5.5 APY) with a maximum value of 7 million. 4 million fully guaranteed at signing.

81.  D’Andre Swift (Philadelphia Eagles RB):

            D’Andre Swift finally had his breakout season. Since being drafted 35^th overall in the 2020 draft, Swift had not surpassed 650 rushing yards until this season. Swift put together a regular season good for 292 attempts, 1,049 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs, 43 missed tackles forced, 4.6 yards per carry, and another 214 receiving yards. That doesn’t tell the whole story though. Swift tied a career-high with three fumbles, and his yards per carry after contact ranked 45^th in the league (2.42). That low yards per carry after contact could indicate Swift’s inability to create as a runner, which means a good chunk of his production can be attributed to the Eagles offensive line. For reference, Miles Sanders went into last offseason with more overall production but similar question marks about his effectiveness outside the Eagles offense. Sanders fell off a cliff in Carolina this year, likely due to the line he was running behind. That said, Swift is only 25 years old and has only 720 career rushing attempts to his name. His productivity outside the Eagles offense will raise question marks, as will his injury history (he missed 3 games in each of his first three seasons), but Swift should be able to get something just under what Miles Sanders got last year.

Final Projection: 3 years 15 million (5 APY). 7 million fully guaranteed at signing.

82.  Chidobe Awuzie (Cincinnati Bengals CB):

            Chidobe Awuzie started his Bengals career out pretty strong in 2021, but injuries and increasing age have taken a toll on his career. With that said, Awuzie can still contribute solid snaps on defense at outside CB as he heads into his age-29 season. Last year, Awuzie gave up 1.09 yards per coverage snap to go along with a 68% completion rate against him. Both metrics are serviceable at best, but teams can never have enough proven and reliable options at the CB position. There is also the possibility that Awuzie will have a stronger season in 2024 as he’ll be further removed from his ACL injury. Overall, there’s a lot to like about a proven veteran CB in Awuzie, and he can still contribute to a defense in a positive way, but I wouldn’t expect him to play 100% of games or be an above-average starter at this stage in his career.

Final Projection: 2 years 10 million (5 APY) with a maximum value of 14 million. 4 million fully guaranteed at signing.

83.  Blake Cashman (Houston Texans LB):

            Before this season, most people knew of Blake Cashman as the guy Joe Douglas was able to trade for a sixth-round pick. Cashman has taken that narrative and given it a 180-degree spin, playing like one of the best linebackers in football this season. Cashman is PFF’s eleventh-highest graded linebacker this season. He racked up 101 tackles, 2 sacks, and an interception to go along with a mere 71.7% completion percentage allowed against him (9^th lowest in the league for off-ball linebackers). Cashman’s career year at 27 years old has come at a depressed time for the linebacker market; most free agents last year settled for 2–3 year deals in the 5-7 APY range. I think Cashman has played great football this year, but his one year of production on defense, coupled with the current linebacker market, will limit his next contract.

Final Projection: 2 years, 10 million (6 APY) with a maximum value of 12 million. 6 million fully guaranteed at signing.

84.  Joshua Dobbs (Minnesota Vikings QB):

            Joshua Dobbs is a fun story. Since entering the league as a fourth-round pick in 2017, Dobbs did not start a game until the end of the 2022 season. Dobbs parlayed an impressive end to the 2022 season with the Tennessee Titans into a moderate backup QB deal to play for the Browns. The Browns then traded Dobbs to the Cardinals, who ultimately traded him to the Vikings at the trade deadline. While Dobbs has had good moments in the last year plus, he has also lost two starting jobs for teams who desperately needed serviceable QB play. Dobbs’s play was often a mixed bag, but his 23 turnover-worthy plays were ultimately too hard to overcome. However, it does not negate the year of film that showed Dobbs is able to start NFL games and keep them competitive in the right circumstances. Dobbs has certainly earned a raise from his two-million-dollar salary this past season. I believe the league will still view him as someone worthy of being one of the highest-paid backup QBs in football, maybe even a bridge guy in the right scenario.

Final Projection: 2 years 10 million (5 APY) with a maximum value of 12 million. 4.5 million fully guaranteed at signing.

85.  Josey Jewell (Denver Broncos LB):

            Jewell just finished another solid season with the Broncos. He posted 100 tackles while missing just 9 tackles all season. He also posted a career-high 3 sacks and 12 pressures. Jewell just turned 29, so he is getting up there in age. Usually, when a player negotiates his third contract without falling off a cliff in quality of play, it is safe to assume they could receive a deal similar to their second deal. I think that could end up being the case with Jewell here, making his last 2-year 11-million-dollar deal a good baseline to work with.

Final Projection: 2 years 10 million (5 APY) with a maximum value of 12 million. 5 million fully guaranteed at signing.

86.  Devin Singletary (Houston Texans RB):

            Devin Singletary took a modest one-year deal with the Texans after spending the first four years of his career in Buffalo. All he’s done is rack up his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard scrimmage season behind a makeshift offensive line that struggled to get the run game going early on. He also had a fumble-free year for the first time in his career. Singletary has proven to be a great value add for the Texans this year, and he’s still only 26 with just over 900 career carries. I think Singletary can surpass the deal Samaje Perine got last year, even in a bleak running back market.

Final projection: 2 years 10 million (5 APY) with a maximum value of 11 million. 4 million fully guaranteed at signing.

87.  Gerald Everett (Los Angeles Chargers TE):

            Gerald Everett put together a solid two year run with the LA Chargers, although his 2022 season was better than his 2023 season. Everett slashed 51/411/3 line this year to go along with just two drops. Unfortunately, his yards per route run was his lowest in five years, and his yards per catch were the lowest of his entire career. Everett appears to be on the back end of his career, but I think he can squeeze out one more two-year deal if the right situation presents itself.

Final Projection: 2 years 10 million (5 APY) with a maximum value of 12 million. 5 million fully guaranteed at signing.

88.  Leonard Floyd (Buffalo Bills EDGE):

            Leonard Floyd is entering the stage in his career where he becomes a year-to-year pass rushing mercenary for contenders. Even though Floyd is entering his age 32 season, he can still get after the quarterback. This season, Floyd posted 10.5 sacks on top of 41 pressures and a 9.9% pass-rush win rate (which is serviceable, not great). His 2023 season was not as good as his 2022 season, so a dip in base pay is likely in the cards for Floyd, especially as he gets older. Teams have also recently found great bargains on edge rushers later in free agency, which could negatively impact Floyd’s market in the early months of free agency. I would not be surprised to see him sign a deal in the summer.

Final Projection: 1 year 5 million (5 APY) with a maximum value of 8 million. 5 million fully guaranteed at signing.

89.  Noah Brown (Houston Texans WR):

            Noah Brown is another player who maybe could have cashed in after a resurgent season with the Texans. Unfortunately, Brown has dealt with a few injuries this year that caused him to miss seven games. Brown still had two very impressive games over 150 yards and averaged over 17 yards per catch with a career-high 1.94 yards per route run. If Brown opts for a multi-year deal, I think Darius Slayton could be a good contract comp for him as far as production in a contract year goes, but I would not be surprised if he signed another one-year deal with the Texans to get a fully healthy season under his belt.

Final projection: 1 year, 5 million (5 APY). 4 million fully guaranteed at signing.

90.  Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (Detroit Lions S):

            Gardner-Johnson is probably staring down the barrel of another one-year deal. 2023 was supposed to be the year he rebuilt his value after a lacerated kidney derailed a strong season with the Eagles, where he had 6 INTs. The end of his Eagles tenure was marred with uncertainty. The Eagles pulled a double-digit APY multiyear offer off the table once they resigned Darius Slay and James Bradberry. After the debacle, CJ opted to take a one-year, 6.5-million-dollar deal with the Lions. The unfortunate side of one-year deals is they leave a lot of uncertainty, and CJ tore his pectoral muscle this year with the Lions, which led to another year largely wasted by his inability to play. CJ is a very good player when he’s on the field, and he’s still only 26 years old, but his string of injuries will unfortunately limit his market yet again. Hopefully, the 2024 season gives CJ a chance to get back on track for a multi-year extension before his thirties.

Final Projection: 1 year 5 million (5 APY) with a maximum value of 8 million. 4 million fully guaranteed at signing.

91.  Odell Beckham Jr. (Baltimore Ravens WR):

            OBJ signed a one-year 15 million dollar deal last off-season, which was a massive overpay at the time and even more so after seeing his production this season in hindsight. However, I would argue that on-field production was not at the forefront of the Raven's mind when they signed him. The overpay stemmed from the Raven's desire to make a splash move that would encourage Lamar Jackson to sign a new deal, and they had to blow OBJ away with an offer that he would agree to before an impending visit with the Jets. OBJ is now entering his age 32 season after slashing 32/565/3, and he seemingly became the Ravens' fourth-best receiver by the end of the year. He has not had a season above 2.0 yards per route run since 2018. Odell is one of the biggest names in the sport, but he’s not the player he once was, and should only command a WR3 type of contract.

Final Projection: 1 year 5 million (5 APY) with a maximum value of 7 million. 2 million fully guaranteed at signing.

92.  Quinton Jefferson (New York Jets IDL):

            Quinton Jefferson had a nice age-30 season as an interior pass rusher with 6 sacks and 29 pressures in just under 500 snaps and under 250 pass rush snaps. His pass rush win rate was the most impressive mark of the season; his 14% pass rush win rate was the 15th-highest mark in the league. Jefferson has a bit of alignment versatility as well playing some snaps in the B gap as well as lined up over the tackle. As he enters his age 31 season, it will be interesting to see if he can turn this strong pass rush season into a two-year deal, which would be the third two-year deal in his career after playing on a 1 year 3.6 million dollar deal this season. He should be able to snag a two-year contract on the market as teams truly covet interior pass rush pressure. As for value, it should land somewhere between his one-year APY this season and his 4.75 APY from his last two-year deal in 2022.

Final Projection: 2 years 9 million (4.5 APY) with a maximum value of 10 million. 4 million fully guaranteed at signing.

93.  Jordyn Brooks (Seattle Seahawks LB):

            Jordyn Brooks had a mediocre season after his fifth-year option was declined by the Seahawks. He had 104 tackles, but also 21 missed tackles. He also struggled in coverage, but did have a career-high 13 pressures and 4.5 sacks. Brooks should be able to sign a two-year deal in free-agency, and could be looking for a change of scenery.

Final Projection: 2 years 9 million (4.5 APY). 4 million fully guaranteed at signing.

94.  Tyrel Dodson (Buffalo Bills LB):

            Tyrel Dodson took advantage of his first opportunity at quality reps on defense for the first time in his four-year career. The 2019 undrafted free agent agreed to a somewhat reworked right of first refusal tender as a restricted free agent this past offseason. He traded a lower base salary for the full guarantee of his base and agreed to incentives that would push him beyond the initial value of the right of first refusal tender. This season, he met three of his playtime incentives by playing 51% of defensive snaps. Dodson registered 74 tackles, 37 stops, 11 pressures, and 2.5 sacks. Dodson was also PFF’s 3^rd highest-graded linebacker this season, indicating strong play when he was on the field. Dodson appears to have his best football days ahead of him as he enters his age 26 season. The Bills will have an interesting decision to make on Dodson. Matt Milano will be returning from a season-ending injury, Terrel Bernard has also stepped up this season, and they should want to get 2023 third-round pick Dorian Williams on the field more often. Dodson remains a great depth piece and a more than serviceable starter, if nothing else. If he returns to Buffalo, it could be on a one-year deal, but a two-year deal could also be in the cards. As for his value, his career arc similarly follows EJ Speed of the Colts. A deal in Speed’s ballpark should be reasonable for Dodson.

Final Projection: 2 years 8 million (4 APY) with a maximum value of 10 million. 4 million fully guaranteed at signing.

95.  Gus Edwards (Baltimore Ravens RB):

            Gus Edwards is entering free agency in a similar fashion to how Jamaal Williams did last year and how James Conner did a few years ago. All three guys posted double-digit short-yardage rushing touchdowns in their contract years, which somewhat inflated their value to the public. Edwards rushed for over 800 yards and 13 TDs in the regular season alone, and he only has 753 rushing attempts to his name across his six-year career. For all intents and purposes, Edwards’ career as an undrafted free agent has been a massive success. People are also asking if Rutgers is RB-University, producing both Edwards and Isiah Pachecho in recent years. However, Edwards is entering his age 29 season, and last year, he had a career-high in fumbles (3) while also posting the lowest YPC of his career (4.1) and lowest yards after contact per carry (2.71). Edwards was also asked to take a pay cut entering the season, and almost all of his touchdowns this season came within 5 yards of the goal line. Edwards remains an elite short yardage back though, and he should be able to parlay that into a decent payday one last time.

Final Projection: 2 years 8 million (4 APY). 4 million fully guaranteed at signing.

96.  Lavonte David (Tampa Bay Buccaneers LB):

            Lavonte David is the gift that keeps on giving. He wrapped up his 12th season with 142 tackles, 22 pressures, 4.5 sacks, 4 PBUs, and only a 7.2% missed tackle rate. At 34 years old, he is slowing down a bit in coverage, but David is still a good starter in this league and should receive another significant one-year deal in his 13^th straight year with the Buccaneers.

Final Projection: 1 year 4 million (4 APY) with a maximum value of 7 million. 4 million fully guaranteed at signing.

97.  Kendrick Bourne (New England Patriots WR):

            Kendrick Bourne was on pace to surpass all his career-high marks before he suffered a season-ending ACL injury in October. It feels like Bourne has been on the cusp of a massive breakout for a few years; hopefully the opportunity comes to fruition in 2024. As for his contract aspects, he’s likely looking at a one-year deal to rebuild value in his upcoming age-29 season. With a strong 2024 season, Bourne could cash in more time before age is too big a knock against him. Hopefully, Bourne lands in a great spot for 2024; he should be a nice low-risk-high-reward pickup if he can stay healthy next year.

Final Projection: 1 year 4 million (4 APY) with a maximum value of 6 million. 2 million fully guaranteed at signing.

98.  Zack Moss (Indianapolis Colts RB):

            Zack Moss has been another beneficiary of a change of scenery. Since being traded to the Colts in the middle of last year, Moss has accumulated all three of his career 100-yard rushing games with the Colts. This season, Moss has filled in admirably for Jonathan Taylor to the tune of career highs in rushing attempts, yards, touchdowns, and missed tackles forced. He has not fumbled this year either. Moss has also been top 15 in both runs of 10+ yards and missed tackles forced. It has been a tale of two halves for Moss though. He has not had a game above 66 rushing yards since week 8. Many teams will also question (and rightfully so) if Moss’s career year has been a product of his offensive line. Moss’s yards per carry after contact ranks 32nd in the league. Nonetheless, he should be able to garner a decent two-year deal this offseason.

Final projection: 2 years 7 million (3.5 APY) with a maximum value of 8 million. 3 million fully guaranteed at signing.

99.  Mekhi Becton (New York Jets LT):

            Mekhi Becton finally played almost a full season this year after missing all of 2022 and nearly all of 2021. Becton’s injuries have not only cost him playing time, but the Jets also declined Becton’s fifth-year option before the 2023 season, so he now faces free agency in March. While many former first rounders have parlayed a declined five-year option into a solid second contract (see Daniel Jones, Kaleb McGary, Garrett Bradburry, etc.) I cannot say Becton capitalized on his earlier contract year like the other guys. Becton was on the field this year, but he gave up 12 sacks and 50 pressures, according to PFF. The 12 sacks given up were tied for the most in the NFL last season, and the 50 pressures were 7^th worst for offensive tackles. Becton is likely looking at a one-year prove-it deal this offseason. Some teams may look favorably on his first-round draft status and could even see his lack of playing time as a positive (coaches often think they can develop a player much better than a different staff), but the injuries and poor play will relegate Becton to a smaller one-year deal and a chance to compete for a job in training camp.

Final Projection: 1 year 3 million (3 APY) with a maximum value of 9 million. 1.5 million fully guaranteed at signing.

100.        J.K. Dobbins (Baltimore Ravens RB):

J.K. Dobbins just cannot stay healthy. Coming into this season, rumors were swirling that Dobbins wanted an extension, but the Ravens rightfully chose not to engage in those talks because Dobbins had missed 24 games in the two prior seasons. Dobbins then tore his Achilles in week one vs the Texans. That is 40 missed games for Dobbins over the last three years, with two season-ending injuries. The former second-round pick does not lack talent though; he averaged ~5.6 yards per carry across his healthy seasons and is always a threat to break off a long run. Dobbins is still only 25 years old, but the injuries raise massive concerns about his contract. Rashaad Penny had similar injury issues during his rookie contract, although not as grave as Dobbins, and signed a one-year, 5.7-million-dollar deal, which slightly surpassed the value of his fifth-year option if the Seahawks had not declined it. I don’t think Dobbins will get that much, especially in today’s RB market, but Penny will be a comparable situation. If Dobbins can get healthy for the 2024 season, he will be a huge low-risk, high-reward player under the contract he gets this off-season.

Final Projection: 1 year 3 million (3 APY) with a maximum value of 6 million. 1 million fully guaranteed at signing.

101.        Raekwon Davis (Miami Dolphins IDL):

            Raekwon Davis has been underwhelming in his first few seasons compared to his second-round draft status. He has yet to play more than 52% of snaps in a season, which could be due to the emergence of his teammate, Zach Sieler. Nevertheless, Davis accumulated 23 pressures and 15 stops on just 45% of snaps on defense this season. The former second rounder has shown some flashes of production coupled with his 6’7” 330lb frame, making him an intriguing free agent option. A change of scenery could be just what Davis needs to boost his value.

Final Projection: 1 year 3 million (3 APY) with a maximum value of 4 million. 2 million fully guaranteed at signing.