Red Zone Efficiency - An Area of Improvement For Houston?
An area of concern could be an area of positivity for 2024.
The red zone is a critical place of operation for NFL teams to ensure points beyond a field goal are obtained. In today’s Cap & Trade Newsletter, I will dive into the data behind Houston’s red zone efficiency from the 2023 season and how the revised offensive skill positions could help the team improve for 2024. Let’s go!
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Hey everyone, TC here,
After a short break from the craziness of the NFL offseason, the next step in the offseason calendar is quickly approaching. NFL Training Camp! For the Houston Texans that means a start date of July 18. The team will start a week early after playing the Hall of Fame game in Canton, Ohio.
Red zone offensive efficiency. A critical piece of the offensive operation that leads to wins. Efficiency in terms of scoring touchdowns, not just settling for field goals. A long look at the data will tell a story of the Houston Texans’ 2023 red zone efficiency…or lack of efficiency as the data will show.
Could this be an area of improvement for the Houston Texans for 2024? A stacked offensive skill position group assembled by GM Nick Caserio and HC Demeco Ryans could catalyze such an improvement.
Before looking forward we must look backward at the past performance. Using Fantasy Points I will provide context for the Texans’ offensive red zone efficiency.
Note: You can hover your mouse over data points in the scatter plots below for detailed data information.
Data
I first wanted to look at rushing success in the red zone. The two data points pulled were the Success Rate and Touchdown Rate for all rushing attempts (regardless of the position of the player carrying the ball) inside the 20-yard line.
As you can see in the scatter plot above, Houston is located in the lower left quadrant…also known as the area you do not want to be in. The Texans had a low success rate and a low touchdown rate compared to the rest of the league.
For reference, success rate is defined as when a play gains at least 40% of the yards to go on the first down, 60% of the yards to go on the second down, and 100% of the yards to go on the third and fourth downs.
There were other data points of concern in the rushing success within the red zone:
Stuff Rate (the opposite of the success rate) of 56.3% ranking the team the 4th worst.
Yards Before Contact (yards the rusher travels before contact) is 0.39 yards ranking the team 5th worst.
The next part of the game I wanted to review was passing success in the red zone. The two data points pulled were the Adjusted Completion Percentage and Touchdown Rate for all passing attempts inside the 20-yard line.
Houston is now located in the lower right quadrant. The team produced a high touchdown rate despite having the 4th worst adjusted completion percentage.
Adjusted completion percentage is defined as Completion Percentage Adjusted for drops, spikes, throwaways, hit as thrown, and batted passes.
Other data points of concern in the passing success within the red zone:
Catchable Throw Rate of 68.4% ranking the team 17th best.
Drop Rate of 5.3% ranking the team 11th worst.
Quarterback Rating of 85.9 ranking the team 8th worst.
Off Target Rate of 26.3% ranking the team 7th worst.
I am waiting on feedback from FantasyPoints if this includes Throwaways, but I suspect it does not.
Film Review
Let’s be clear…the issues in the red zone are multi-faceted. And I certainly won’t attempt to get into the intricacies of the issues the Houston Texans exhibited during the 2023 season inside the red zone.
Given that I wanted to show a few examples of where the team did not have success in the red zone in both the rushing and passing game.
Week 2 against Indianapolis - 2nd & 2 from the Indy 4-yard line
Houston was in 11 personnel with the tight end (Schultz) inline on the right side of the formation giving the team a 3x1 look. Houston goes with an outside zone weak run play. The goal here is for the center to reach the nose/interior defensive tackle to create two options for the running back. In this example, the DT beats the Center to blow up any available options for the running back.
Week 9 against Tampa Bay - 2nd & 1 from the TB 6-yard line
Houston is in 12 personnel attempting an inside counter run with two pullers, the FB and LG pull across the formation. The problem is the Center does not hold his block or has a missed assignment with the heads-up NT, and the LG misses the edge rusher.
Houston showed a continuous series of missed assignments in the running game in all areas of the field.
Week 11 against Arizona - 2nd & 10 from ARI 13-yard line
Houston, as I have learned, is running a Choice/Lookie concept here. With a 3 x 2 formation Stroud is trying to get to his crossing (or thru) route with the X receiver running a shallow crossing route. Blame the QB…blame a WR here…the result is still a turnover.
Week 15 against Tennessee - 3rd & 6 from Teen 9-yard line.
Houston is working with 11 personnel in a 2 x 2 formation with a double post route concept. The first is the motion WR acting as the X receiver on the post to the back of the end zone. As we see that route is over with the safety, however, this leaves the middle of the field (MOFO) open for the TE on the inside post route. The quarterback double clutches due to a DL player standing tall. Houston had an opportunity here but missed it.
Final Thoughts
Houston has a ton of room to grow inside the red zone. The staff needs to eliminate missed assignments in the running game as the primary concern. I believe the passing game will continue to progress in the red zone in 2024 and beyond.
The additions of running back Joe Mixon and wide receiver Stefon Diggs should help alleviate some of the issues in the red zone. Year 2 of Bobby Slowik and C.J. Stroud should continue their ascent from their 2023 campaign.
The offensive line will be the critical piece. Unfortunately, the fan base was unable to watch a full-strength offensive line for the Texans in 2023. A healthy offensive line group would change things in 2024, an ability not yet shown by the team based on the past few years.
With a projected offensive line of (left to right) Tunsil, (one of the Green’s), Scruggs, Mason, and Howard the group is solid on paper.
Can this group turn the missed opportunities into touchdowns in the red zone? Only time will tell.
Training camp is almost here! I will attend when I can, and my good friend
will be there in full force covering everything with the team’s training camp work. I suggest you subscribe to Cody’s work if you want fantastic coverage of the Houston Texans during training camp.Until next time, enjoy your summer and stay hydrated.
-TC