Hey everyone, TC here,
Every year, teams and agents work to complete the last round of contract extensions in the small window of time occurring after the last preseason game and the first regular season game.
This year was no different, with new contracts completed with players such as Micah Parsons, Terry McLaurin, Trey Henderickson, Taylor Moton, Kyle Hamilton, Daron Bland, Davis Mills, Luke Goedeke, Abe Lucas, Ted Karras, and Nik Bonitto.
For today’s newsletter, I wanted to look specifically at the Nik Bonitto situation.
Athletes First posted the announcement on social media, including the basic metrics of the contract. The full details of the contract are now available at OverTheCap.com.
Based on the new money average per year (APY), $26.5 million, this places Bonitto as the 10th highest paid “edge” player, just under Brian Burns. The term “edge” includes players who are designated as either a defensive end or linebacker, excluding off-ball linebackers.
Another data point I compare against is the OTC Valuation at OvertheCap. Note this is from the Premium section on OTC. The valuation is not meant to be a market APY number but rather the player’s performance measured in terms of APY compared to the rest of the position group. Nik Bonitto comes in as the 15th-highest valued edge player for the 2024 season.
Given the above data, Nik Bonitto was measured as the 15th highest valued edge player for the 2024 season, and became the 10th highest paid edge player based on APY.
Sports Info Solutions - Total Points
A new (to me) data point that I want to explore using more in 2025 is the Total Points metric from Sports Info Solutions, also known as SIS. The SIS team is highly regarded in the Major League Baseball world.
For an explanation of the Total Points system, you can read all about it here: SIS Total Points Primer and SIS Total Points Update. “All of Total Points uses the Expected Points Added (EPA) framework.”
For this exercise, I downloaded the Total Points data for the edge players for the 2024 season. The metric can be split into three (3) categories: run defense, pass rush, and pass defense (coverage). Summing the data gives the Total Points output.
Edge players are primarily paid for their ability to get pressure on the opposing team’s quarterback and to stop the run. To force the offense to account for that player heavily. Edge players, generally, are not heavily relied upon in the coverage game.
Nik Bonitto is highlighted in the table above. The Points Saved in run defense are low, with better-than-average pass rush performance and upper-tier performance in coverage.
A portion of Bonitto’s value stems from his pass rush and coverage ability. Now, Bonitto is not dropping into coverage dozens of times each game. In fact, he was charted with 69 coverage snaps in 2024.
In my preliminary use of the Total Points data, I do like this view on a “3-tool” approach to edge player performance. Defensive linemen can affect the game in multiple ways: run defense, pass rush, and coverage. Those efforts to influence gameplay can be categorized into one of these three categories.
How well does the Total Points metric align with Contract APY? Better than I expected based on the scatter plot below:
The Micah Parsons contract will be viewed as an outlier for at least two years due to the contract leverage generated from the trade to the Green Bay Packers. I decided to leave Jared Verse on the chart, specifically to highlight the value of rookie contracts. And of course, Calais Campbell is the ageless wonder.
Final Thoughts
Given the data in the above tables, I believe Bonitto’s contract value is well placed. Bonitto was scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in 2026. The edge market is usually barren in free agency. Bonitto would have garnered a larger contract on the open market.
To argue the other side, it is difficult to ask a player to forgo $70 million in guarantees presented on the table in front of you to instead put your body through another 18+ weeks of brutal gameplay, hoping you remain injury-free. In the life of the NFL, with players experiencing a short shelf life, I find zero fault in Bonitto taking this contract.
I do not yet have the details on the incentive package in the contract; reportedly, Bonitto can earn an additional $14.0 million through performance incentives over the life of the contract.
Thanks for reading and being here!
-TC