Nico Collins Contract Projection
Where does a Nico Collins contract slot in with the wealthy wide receiver market?
Wide receiver Nico Collins is the first drafted star of the Nick Caserio history book. Now Collins is due for a market-level contract extension. What will that contract look like? How much? Let’s dive in.
Folks…it’s contract projection time. Projections are a staple here on Cap & Trade, something I enjoy producing.
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Hey everyone, TC here,
The NFL schedule is out. Organized team activities (OTA’s) are underway. We have finally entered the next stage of the NFL offseason. Training camp will be here in two months.
The next item of business for the Houston Texans is a market-level contract extension for wide receiver Nico Collins. A player whose development has been a slow progression with a heavy ramp-up of explosion during the 2023 season. Collins thrust himself into the Top 10 category of wide receivers.
Draft Metrics
Nick Caserio has, historically, taken a tape-first approach to the draft picks. Tape over measureables. With the introduction of GPS player data, valuable information is now available to the NFL teams beyond what we see at the NFL Combine.
Collins sat out his final season of college football, at Michigan, during the COVID pandemic. Despite that Collins was graded out as a highly athletic individual per his RAS score.
Collins was touted as a power receiver who could win at the top of the route with strength and intelligence. Conversely, Collins was viewed as a receiver who needed to work on his route-running consistency and the ability to break jams at the line of scrimmage.
This just in…Collins developed those traits to become a dominant wide receiver. Sure Collins was equipped with an excellent offensive coordinator and an elite-level quarterback in 2023, but let’s not look past Collins’ development progression over his three seasons with the Houston Texans.
Statistics 2021-2023
Nico Collins struggled with injuries in his first two seasons in the NFL missing 10 games over the 2021 and 2022 seasons. The development persisted over the 2021 and 2022 seasons exploding onto the scene in the 2023 season finishing as a top-tier wide receiver in statistical performance across the board.
Two statistical metrics I like to reference are Yards Per Route and Targets Per Route. These two metrics combined into a scatter plot can showcase a player’s ability to get open and convert those targets into receiving yards.
Hover your mouse over the data points for more information.
In this first scatter plot, I combined the player’s data for three seasons (2021 through 2023) to capture each player’s Target Per Route and Yards Per Route rates. I filtered the list down to the Top 100 players by Routes Run, only as a wide receiver. Collins’ location in the top right quadrant (using median numbers) is what you want to see.
Hover your mouse over the data points for more information.
Here we have the same data but filtered down to only the 2023 season data. Collins’ has moved up the board to number 2 overall on this plot of Targets Per Route v. Yards Per Route.
Now I know what you are thinking…Collins’ huge leap in performance was the result of working with quarterback C.J. Stroud. Yes, working with an accurate quarterback does help the receiver.
The receiver still needs to run the correct route, a route that places him exactly where the quarterback expects the receiver to be, and a route in which the play is designed to create space for that receiver. How does Collins’ separation numbers look when targeted?
Hover your mouse over the data points for more information.
Nico Collins’ separation numbers when targeted are in the top right quadrant again along with the other elite wide receivers in the league. Not only is Collins targeted at a high rate, but he also creates separation from the nearest defender when the football arrives.
Hover your mouse over the data points for more information.
Not only was Nico Collins able to create separation with his routes, but Collins was also the 1st read for CJ Stroud at a high rate. Note this data is manually charted data by Fantasy Points.
Hover your mouse over the data points for more information.
A point of emphasis during this offseason by General Manager Nick Caserio and Head Coach Demeco Ryans was receivers who can turn receptions into first downs. This scatter plot shows that Nico Collins has performed well in this area of concern as per the data from the 2023 season when targeted in third-down situations.
Film
Data then film.
Houston is in 3rd and 4 with a 3x1 formation with Collins on the line of scrimmage within the bunch to the right. Collins appears to have a choice route based on the coverage leverage and safety movement. The safety shades to Robert Woods' side, and the defensive back shows inside leverage. A good route with shoulder movement gets the defensive back to bite on the inside fake, leaving a nice soft corner route to the open area.
Collins’ footwork has improved not only in route running but also in sideline work. This 8-yard out route for a first down was beautiful work by Stroud and Collins.
Here Houston is in their 12 personnel package running play action. Collins recognizes the single high MOFC safety dropping. Collins takes advantage and settles his stop route a few yards past the first down sticks for an easy first down.
Collins has also learned how to use his big body strength as an asset. In this play, Collins shows a willingness to complete the reception process knowing a big hit was incoming.
Contract Projection
For the contract projection, I referenced the current wide receiver market coupled with offline chatter passed along, to project a contract extension for Nico Collins with the Houston Texans.
I do not believe Collins is looking for a top-tier contract. The Rosenhaus brothers, Collins’ agency, are experienced agents that will seek a contract meeting Collins’ worth while providing him structure for strong guarantees.
Market Comparisons (APY/Guarantee)
Michael Pittman ($23.3m/$46.0m)
Deebo Samuel ($23.9m/$58.2m)
D.K. Metcalf ($24.0m/$58.2m)
DeVonta Smith ($25.0m/$69.9m)
Draft position, injury history, and small sample size of top-tier performance are the factors working against Collins. On the flip side, Collins is young turning 25 this past March, has shown season-over-season growth in many areas of being a wide receiver, fits the X receiver role perfectly in Bobby Slowik’s system, and has developed an excellent rapport with quarterback C.J. Stroud.
I expect Houston to stick with their 3-year model. The same model was used with Laremy Tunsil, Tytus Howard, Shaq Mason, Dalton Schultz, and Ka’imi Fairbairn. Guarantees will be strong but not to extend beyond Year 2 (new years) of the contract life.
Projected Contract
With this projected contract Nico Collins would earn $74.25 million (new money) on a 3-year contract extension through the 2027 league year, becoming a free agent in 2028.
$17.0 million signing bonus.
Full guarantee, at signing, salaries in 2024 & 2025.
$10.0 million of 2026 salary is guaranteed at signing, and an additional $8.0 million is guaranteed for injury at signing. The $8.0 million becomes fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2025 league year.
$500,000 per year in per-game active roster bonuses (paid $29,412 per game active).
$2.0 million lump roster bonus, due on the 5th day of the 2026 league year.
One void year for salary cap purposes. The contract voids on the 23rd day before the start of the 2027 league year.
Cash Flow
$33.8 million through Year 1.
$52.4 million through Year 2.
Average Per Year
$24.75 million over 3 new years.
Guaranteed Money
$46.0 million fully guaranteed at signing (61.9%).
$54.0 million total guaranteed (72.7%).
$15.3 million full guarantee per year.
$18.0 million total guarantee per year.
Closing Thoughts
I do not believe the Stefon Diggs situation will have an effect on Houston completing an extension with Nico Collins. Collins is a great example of drafting a high ceiling player on day 2 of the NFL Draft, developing the player exposing them to everything they can handle, and rewarding the player once the development is realized. This is the exact situation where a team should reward the player based on his growth and development.
The contract has a solid APY for appearance, strong cash flow, and excellent guarantees.
A good meeting of the middle ground between both parties.
-TC
Brilliant work! Very, very impressed and you absolutely nailed it. Congratulations 👍
You got this out just in time! Very good prediction too 😉 I think you're starting to figure Nick out. Feels like a good deal all round.
I find it interesting the 4 year contract seems to be on the way out for the Texans. They seem to operate with a much shorter window/cycle now.