NFL News & Defense Free Agent Preview
Review of this week's NFL news and defensive free agent targets.
What a wild ride the NFL is! The past 72 hours of news has been plentiful, shocking, and exciting. The NFL never sleeps as they say.
On this week’s Twitter Spaces show of Cap & Trade with TC, we had full intentions of covering potential free agent targets for the defensive side of the Houston Texans. With the plethora of recent news, we were unable to dive into that topic. I promised the listeners the topic would be covered in this week’s newsletter. This is a long one, buckle up.
Franchise Tag Window Closed
At 4pm EST on March 8, 2022 the window closed for NFL teams to apply a franchise or transition tag to one pending free agent player. This year there were 8 players franchise tagged, and zero players transition tagged. All 8 of the franchise tags were used as non-exclusive franchise tags.
Cincinnati Bengals - Jessie Bates
Cleveland Brows - David Njoku
Dallas Cowboys - Dalton Schultz
Green Bay Packers - Davante Adams
Jacksonville Jaguars - Cam Robinson
Kansas City Chiefs - Orlando Brown
Miami Dolphins - Mike Gesicki
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Chris Godwin
The biggest surprise of the group is offensive tackle Cam Robinson. This is the second time Jacksonville has tagged Robinson. Two tags for Robinson will now earn him just over $30 million in salary over the 2021 and 2022 league years.
The other 7 players were not a surprise. Those players and their respective teams will continue negotiations on long term contracts up to the July 15, 2022 deadline.
In 2021 there were 10 players franchise tagged, 15 players tagged in 2020, and only 6 players tagged in 2019.
Quarterback Craziness
Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay Packers, to little surprise, tentatively agreed on a contract extension to keep Rodgers in Green Bay for the foreseeable future. Based on reporting from media and conflicting reports from Aaron Rodgers himself, we can expect a new contract in the very near future. Initial reports have the contract as a 4 year contract worth $200 million with $153 million guaranteed. The contract would lower Rodger’s salary cap charges in 2022 and 2023. Expect this contract to be completed prior to March 16.
Rodgers will become the first true $50 million APY player in the league. And this will now become the floor for top tier quarterbacks with the likes of Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert eligible for extensions in 2023. This also should raise the floor for Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray (in 2023).
Seattle agreed, in principle, to trade veteran quarterback Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos. Denver sent two first round picks, two second round picks, a fifth round pick, tight end Noah Fant, defensive lineman Shelby Harris, and third year quarterback Drew Lock in exchange for Russell Wilson and a 4th round pick. New Denver GM George Patton has been knocking it out of the park in his first 15 months on the job.
Wilson has two years left on his current contract. Initial expectation is Wilson will play the 2022 season under his current contract, followed by negotiation for an extension in the 2023 offseason.
The draft compensation undoubtedly peaked the interest of Houston and the rest of the league. If we toss out Harris, Locke, and the 5th rounder from the equation, and assume Fant is worth a 2nd. This would put the base trade value at two 1’s and three 2’s. This now becomes the floor for a Deshaun Watson trade. Houston, reportedly, has been asking for three 1’s and two 2’s.
Regarding a Deshaun Watson trade, a grand jury is scheduled to meet and review the prosecutor’s findings and testimony today. Getting resolution on Watson’s criminal situation will help facilitate a trade pretty quickly depending on the outcome.
Potential suitors appear to be willing to proceed with a trade if no criminal charges are given, and willing to proceed with the civil side still pending. Suitors include Carolina, Seattle, Pittsburgh, and potentially Minnesota if they are able to move Kirk Cousins.
Houston Texans Free Agency - Defense
Houston has many roster holes to fulfill on the defensive side of the ball for 2022. Lovie Smith will have strong input into how the roster is built, working closely with GM Nick Caserio. Smith has continually touted pass rush and defensive line during his media hits.
Defensive Line
Maliek Collins
My understanding there is strong mutual interest for Collins to return to the Texans. Agreeing on numbers is the tricky part. Collins had some issues with penalties in 2021, but overall put together a solid campaign as IDL1. Collins would pair up with Roy Lopez as the primary interior tandem for the next few years.
Projected Contract: 3 years / $27 million / $9 million APY
Maurice Hurst
Coming out of San Francisco and only 26 (turns 27 during the season). Hurst will face a light market given the depth at the draft. Hurst would come in as rotational player at a low cost.
Projected Contract: 1 year / $2.5 million / $2.5 million APY
Tim Settle
Settle was a 5th round pick with Washington, and will turn 25 during the season. I am not sure how well Settle would fit (I almost said settle) with Lovie’s scheme, but he is worth mentioning. Settle had 10 QB pressures on 110 pass rush snaps in 2021.
Projected Contract: 1 year / $4.5 million / $4.5 million APY
Harrison Phillips
Phillips would be a solid Plan B if negotiations with Collins goes sideways. Phillips is an excellent run defender, lacking a bit on the pass rush skills. A former 3rd round pick with Buffalo and is only 26 years old.
Projected Contract: 2 years / $13 million / $6.5 million APY
Edge Rusher
Houston likely will target edge rusher early in the draft, however below are a few options to examine to pair with Jon Greenard. I do not expect Jacob Martin to return.
Demarcus Walker
Walker played well for Houston in a limited sub-package roll in 2021. Walker lined up both as an edge defender and interior defender. Walker would swallowed up on the interior with his smaller size. Houston would like to bring Walker back.
Projected Contract: 1 year / $3 million / $3 million APY
Derek Barnett
Barnett, a former 1st round draft selection, will be looking for a fresh start elsewhere after 5 seasons with Philadelphia. Barnett had 35 pressures and 3 sacks in a heavy role in 2021. Good at holding the edge in run defense, needs to revamp his pass rush technique. His first round 1st draft stock will inherently raise his market value.
Projected Contract: 1 year / $10 million / $5 million APY
Uchenna Nwosu
Uchenna is an intriguing under the radar (with the media at least) free agent. Uchenna had a rough start to the season, posting low PFF grades in the first 4 weeks of the season. Only to post solid numbers the rest of the way. 40 pressures with 5 sacks on 408 pass rush snaps. Uchenna likely a better fit for a 3-4 scheme, but felt it was worth mentioning him.
Projected Contract: 3 years / $27 million / $9 million APY
Arden Key
Key has the ability to line up in various spots as a pass rusher. Key could be a joker type player for Lovie Smith to utilize in sub packages to rush the passer. Key had 8 sacks on 41 pressures with only 310 pass rush snaps. Key is not going to win in the run game with his skill set.
Projected Contract: 2 years / $11 million / $5.5 million APY
Malik Reed
Reed projects as a rotational player pass rusher. Reed’s size may be difficult to manage in Lovie’s scheme. Reed is young and should be relatively inexpensive for his production. Reed finished with last season in Denver with 6 sacks and 27 pressures. Reed does have some coverage ability as well.
Projected Contract: 1 year / $2 million / $2 million APY
Linebacker
Caserio and Smith will look to sign a big group of linebackers once again to refill the corp.
Christian Kirksey
There is a real chance that Kirksey returns for another season in Houston. Kirksey. Turning 30 this year, Kirksey is considered more a glue guy than defensive play maker. Kirksey had 71 tackles in 13 games during the 2021 season. Kirksey’s market value should increase over his 2021 value just based on cap inflation.
Projected Contract: 1 year / $4.5 million / $4.5 million APY
Kamu Grugier-Hill
2021 was the first season for Grugier-Hill to fulfill a full time linebacker roll. Grugier-Hill has good side line to side line speed, and solid quarterback rushing skills, but can just as easily get lost in the shuffle on run plays. Grugier-Hill’s week to week performance is inconsistent. Grugier-Hill will be looking for a strong contract, coming off injury. He could easily price himself out of Houston.
Projected Contract: 2 years / $11 million / $5.5 million APY
Kyzir White
White projects as a will linebacker in Lovie’s defense. White can work in a zone coverage scheme with solid run defensive skills. White is a former 4th round draft pick, finished the 2021 season with 107 tackles. White’s playtime has steadily increased year over year in Los Angeles.
Projected Contract: 2 years / $12 million / $6 million APY
Jayon Brown
Brown spent the last 5 seasons in Tennessee splitting time between Mike and Will linebacker spots. Brown does have an injury history to consider, which can be covered up some with per game roster bonuses. Brown can work well in a zone coverage scheme in a rotational role.
Projected Contract: 1 year / $3 million / $3 million APY
Leighton Vander Esch
Vander Esch is on this list in the event Kirksey is not resigned and the team wants to spend a few more million. Vander Esch can play both the Mike and Will linebacker spots, and can call the plays. Former 1st round draft selections generally have an inflated contract value, but Vander Esch does not bring injury concerns with him. Vander Esch has the ability to be a 100+ tackle linebacker if he has a clean defensive front.
Projected Contract: 2 years / $16 million / $8 million APY
Cornerback
With the recent news of Terrance Mitchell pending release, the team now has Lonnie Johnson as CB1. Tavierre Thomas was extending late in 2021 returning as SCB1. The depth in this group is concerning at the moment. Unfortunately the free agent group is lacking mid-level talent this year.
Desmond King
There is growing sentiment that King may return to Houston for 2022. King works best as a nickel cornerback, but Houston continues to utilize him as a boundary cornerback. Quarterbacks had a 90.4 passer rating when targeting him. King would have to compete to get the starting job in 2022.
Projected Contract: 1 year / $4 million / $4 million APY
Levi Wallace
Wallace operated as CB2 in Buffalo and is built with height and length, but needs to work in a zone heavy scheme. His skillset should fit in well with Lovie’s scheme. Wallace was an undrafted player in 2018 out of Alabama. Wallace gave up 5 touchdowns, pulled in 3 interceptions with 7 passes deflected.
Projected Contract: 3 years / $21 million / $7 million APY
Mike Hughes
Hughes experienced a resurgence in Kansas City in 2021 with a PFF grade of 72. Hughes is undersized at 5’10 and 189lbs. Hughes projects to operate more efficiently in a zone scheme with a small amount of man coverage work. Hughes should be a CB3 type of player with short term starter work.
Projected Contract: 2 years / $10 million / $5 million APY
Donte Jackson
Jackson will have a bit stronger market than the previous mentioned players. Jackson comes from a zone scheme in Carolina. Jackson is only 26 years old, former 2nd round draft pick. Jackson has 4.3 speed, but lacks arm length (4th percentile). Jackson did miss the last 5 games of the 2021 season with a groin injury.
Projected Contract: 3 years / $30 million / $10 million APY
Steven Nelson
Nelson should have a strong market after resetting his value with a stint in Philadelphia. Nelson projects as a starting CB2 and can work in a zone or man scheme. Nelson just turned 29, age may be a concern. Nelson drastically lowered his missed tackle percentage from double digits to 3.4% in 2021.
Projected Contract: 2 years / $13 million / $6.5 million APY
Safety
Expectations for me on Justin Reid…Reid won’t be returning to Houston. The team seems to be content with Eric Murray for one more year unless they have him losing his job during training camp.
Xavier Woods
Woods spent 2021 in Minnesota after 4 years in Dallas. Woods can work in multiple systems and should be a good fit for Lovie’s 2 high looks. Woods grades out well in run defense with PFF. Woods was able to pull in 3 interceptions last year. Woods has good size and athletic traits.
Projected Contract: 2 years / $11 million / $5.5 million APY
Terrell Edmunds
Edmunds has been a disappointing 1st round draft selection for the Steelers. Edmunds should be looking for a one year contract to reset his value for 2023. Houston could offer him a good chance to complete that task. Edmunds graded poorly in 2021 with Pittsburgh among safeties with a 58.
Projected Contract: 1 year / $3 million / $3 million APY
Bobby McCain
McCain put together an excellent campaign in Washington in 2021 with a PFF grade of 70. McCain spent the previous six seasons in Miami, then signed a one year prove it deal in 2021. McCain should have some suitors, event at the ripe age of 29. McCain had 4 interceptions last year with 11 run stops.
Projected Contract: 2 years / $9 million / $4.5 million APY
Marcus Maye
Maye would fit well into a deep zone scheme, which could be appealing to Houston. Maye was playing on the $10 million franchise tag before rupturing his achilleas tendon after 9 weeks of the regular season. Any team signing Maye will need to obtain a clear medical evaluation on his rehab progress. If Maye is healthy enough for 2022, he would need to work under a one year prove it deal with some incentives based on playing time.
Projected Contract: 1 year / $7.5 million / $7.5 million APY
Free agency will kick off next week on Monday March 14 with the “legal tampering” period opening at noon that day. The new league year opens on March 16 at 4pm EST. As with every free agency, it will be a crazy two weeks before things start to slow down prior to the draft.
We will be working to update Overthecap.com as quickly and accurately as possible throughout the process.
See you next week!
-TC
Data sources: Overthecap.com, PFF.com, PlayerProfiler.com, NFLPA records