Most Impactful Player Acquisition for the Houston Texans

Reader Q&A Brings a Great Question!

As I contemplated this week’s newsletter topic, faithful follower Steve posed a fantastic question in the Cap & Trade Chat Room:

What off-season move will end up having the most impact by the end of the season?

Are you a new subscriber to the Cap & Trade Newsletter, welcome! This newsletter covers the NFL salary cap and news across the league with additional coverage of the Houston Texans. I have been covering the Houston Texans since 2012, and 2017 as credentialed media and have been working at OverTheCap.com for the past 8 years. To assist with the data in this newsletter I subscribe to many paywall-type websites for data sourcing and aggregation, but I'm always searching for more sources. While this newsletter remains free, you can activate a paid subscription to assist in making this newsletter even better:

Hey everyone,

First and foremost, happy Labor Day to everyone, and happy Week 1 of the NFL regular season! We made it!

Steve, a faithful reader of this newsletter posed the above question. This is a great question and is specific to my Houston Texans whom I cover and fan for.

Nick Caserio and Demeco Ryans built and developed offseason class between free agency and the draft. After multiple trades and big-name signings, how can I answer this question with just one name!?!

Many might say Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, or Danielle Hunter…not me.

The player I expect to have the biggest impact by the end of the season is linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. The play-caller of the defense, and who will be charged with carrying Demeco Ryans’s defensive purpose from the meeting room to the playing field.

After missing out on Al-Shaair in free agency in 2023 after signing with the Tennessee Titans; Houston secured a 3-year $34 million contract with the 27-year-old veteran linebacker. Al-Shaair spent time with Demeco Ryans in San Francisco and displayed his capabilities in Tennessee during the 2023 season.

NGS Stats for Azeez Al-Shaair...

Al-Shaair is projected to cover the middle (“Mike”) linebacker role in Houston and will remain on the field in nearly every formation fielded by Houston. In 2023, Al-Shaair played 95.6% of the defensive snaps in Tennessee.

The numbers in the above graphic illustrate what Al-Shaair brings to the field for Houston in 2024.

After watching training camp this summer, Al-Shaair is as advertised. His presence in the middle of the field is well-defined and clear as the other players follow his lead breaking from the huddle.

The numbers I am focused on with Al-Shaair are his run defense, specifically Run Stops and Run Stop Percentage. Finishing the 2023 season with a Run Stop Percentage of 9.7%¹, placing Al-Shaair in the Top 12 among linebackers. Coverage is not Al-Shaair’s strongest trait allowing a 96.6² NFL rating when targeted in coverage.

Al-Shaair’s primary job will be lane filling for run defense and leadership of the defense. Ryans will undoubtedly mix in pass rush work for Al-Shaair especially when we see the patented Double Mug A-Gap look.

I think we all can agree the interior defensive line will be the weak link within the Houston defense. This weakness could be on display in Week 1 against Jonathan Taylor and the Indianapolis Colts. Al-Shaair will have the responsibility of covering those run fits to limit the big-play ability of the Colts’s offense.

Film Examples

Against New Orleans, with a big 13 personnel package, Al-Shaair quickly identifies the run gap and attacks before the offensive line can react.

Against the Cleveland Browns, this is a clear view of Al-Shaair keeping his eyes in the backfield as he works laterally and sheds a blocker to make the run stop.

Here we see Al-Shaair read the run fit after Simmons blows up the backfield for the run stop after Carolina attempted to run a duo power between the tackles.

And against Houston with another run stuff. Houston was working in 12 personnel attempting the 12p inside zone slice which has the tight end (Jordan) slice across the formation to cover the back side defensive end.

Closing

When healthy the secondary of the Houston Texans coupled with the edge pass rusher group should do well to stifle the passing game of many offenses across the league.

The defense will have to step up in the run defense and the signing of Azeez Al-Shaair will be the key component of the run defense behind the interior defensive line.

For these reasons, my vote for the most impactful free-agent player of the 2024 season is to be Mr. Azeez Al-Shaair.

Thanks again for the continued support. I can’t wait to dive into the upcoming regular season both at the Houston Texans level and across the NFL.

-TC

1. Per ProFootball Focus data

2. Per NFL NextGen Statistics data