Houston Texans Rushing Attack By The Numbers
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We are back! My apologies for the two week absence. Came down with a chest cold (that I am still fighting) really knocked me down for a good bit.
Rather than a game review I really wanted to take a look at the Houston Texans’ rushing game. The weekly game review format likely would have been a big ole bowl of negativity. The notion of why the Houston rushing attack has been less than stellar has been bugging me for quite some time.
I’ve watched film every week on the rushing attack presented by the Houston Texans, and I’ve dove head first into the data behind it all. I’ve had multiple conversations with fans and other smart people concerning the run game. I am not sure there is a quick and easy answer to this predicament, but let’s give it a shot.
There are plenty of theories out there. The offensive line doesn’t block well for Pierce as compared to Singletary. Pierce faces more loaded boxes than Singletary. Singletary is a more patient runner and excels in zone as compared to Pierce. I believe there is some validity to almost all of that.
For this exercise I will focus the data specifically on Devin Singletary and Dameon Pierce, but with more focus on Pierce. I have pulled data from multiple sources including: Fantasy Pts Data Suite, Sports Information Solutions Pro Data Hub, NFL NextGen Stats, and Pro Football Focus.
And yes there will be a few film cut-ups to help highlight what the data is telling us.
Base Statistics
At the highest level (all rush attempts with no filters or qualifiers) Singletary has been the more efficient rusher for Houston. Yards Per Carry, Expected Points Added (EPA) Per Carry, and Success Rate all favor Singletary. Success Rate is defined as a play that results in positive EPA.
Both players excel with a light box (<7 defenders) defensive presentation. The big separator is when facing a loaded box (8+ defenders) defensive look. Pierce’s numbers drop off dramatically as compared to Singletary, Pierce’s success rate drops to 16.2% with Singletary’s success rate seeing very little drop to 29.7%
There is a theory out there that Pierce faces more loaded boxes compared to Singletary, however the data does not support that thought. The 8+ defender presentation counts are near identical between the two players.
Interestingly Singletary faces more loaded boxes, and Pierce faces more plus blockers boxes. For the numbers above, loaded % is percentage of runs where defenders out number the amount of blockers. Blocked % is percentage of runs where the number of blockers is greater than the number of defenders.
Pierce has seen 75% of his rush attempts come when Stroud is in shotgun. Despite the high percentage of runs coming from shotgun formations, Pierce finds very little success when running from those formations.
Are opposing defenses not valuing Pierce as a receiver in shotgun formations?
Personnel Packages
Houston deploys multiple run schemes including zone and man/gap. The numbers here clearly pass the eye test for me. Pierce struggles in zone concepts, and more so on outside zone concepts. At the end there will be a film cut-up showing two potential issues for Pierce in zone concepts…his foot work and decision making.
Another theory I developed from the above data is team’s success rate with 11 and 12 personnel packages on the field. With these two personnel packages there is no full back on the field.
Pierce clearly has more success with no full back on the field. Now do not confuse this with no lead blockers on the field. Houston will utilize a tight end or wide receiver as a fullback from 11 and 12 personnel looks. Houston will also find success with pulling guards and tackles across the formation.
Speaking on lead blockers, how well does Singletary and Pierce perform with and without a lead blocker? Let’s pull some data from Sports Information Solutions.
With Lead Blocker:
Without Lead Blocker:
Singletary’s numbers do not show much variance with or without a lead blocker. However Pierce’s Hit at Line %, Stuff %, Yards Per Att, and Yards After Contact all drop when working with a lead blocker.
This is a decision making problem with the fullback choosing the wrong gap or defender to attack, or is Pierce not following his lead blocker and choosing another route?
If we really want to get granular, Houston has found success with Duo run blocking schemes. Right Guard Shaq Mason has the ability to work with Dieter on the initial block check and then work to the second level when the run gap is on his side of the line.
The EPA/Attempt and Positive % (same as Success Rate in above tables) are very good numbers.
The run play which Pierce excels at is the Counter play. This doesn’t require a large cut back and the backside running lane is pre-determined. Pierce averages 4.2 yards per carry on counters.
Poor Blocking
Another prevailing theory is Pierce just doesn’t get the same blocking as Singletary. Based the on the NGS data above, Pierce is high at or behind the line of scrimmage (LOS) at a higher rate than Singletary.
Recall above I noted the lack of success for Pierce from shotgun formations? The numbers in this table support that, with a hit at/behind the LOS rate of 59%.
Is the offensive line not blocking well or are defenses locking in on Pierce as a rusher only when he is on the field?
Film Review
Here Houston is in 12 personnel using Schultz as a fullback with Kendrick Green as the pulling guard. The designed run gap is clearly defined for Pierce.
Houston is in 21 personnel, however Beck is working a pseudo tight end sliding across the formation with Howard as the pulling guard.
Here is an example of Pierce’s footwork issues on outside zone. Pierce has a tendency to shuffle his feet inside of planting his outside foot and cutting up field. The shuffling causes lost time allowing lanes to close up.
Here we see Pierce electing not to follow Beck to the flat outside. There was a clear lane with following Beck, but elected to cut up field early into traffic. 21 personnel for this look.
I mentioned during the data section on Houston’s success with Duo running schemes. 11 personnel look with Woods acting as the full back with the interior duo’ing up. Singletary’s decision making is sound.
Another example of pulling offensive linemen. When Pierce follows his blockers he finds success. Really like Scruggs working to the second level quickly here.
Yes it happens. Blocking sucks for Pierce. I don’t know why but it does happen more for Pierce than Singletary. Football is weird sometimes.
Summary
There is no one singular answer to the Houston Texans’ rushing issues. At the end of the day execution of blocking assignments, run gap decision making, and footwork have to be completed efficiently and correctly.
What I would like to see from the offense:
Mix in more play action with Pierce on the field. Make the defense respect the play call with Pierce on the field.
Pierce can see the field better without a fullback on the field from I-Formation and Split I-Formations. Using jet motion and across formation slide techniques for a full back or tight end to build running lanes.
Continue pulling guards and tight ends with Pierce and Singletary. Singletary has exhibited the patience needs for pin pull schemes.
Allow Pierce to run some underneath and leak out routes. Pierce can block and can be an effective third down back if allowed to do so. Using Pierce on routes, play action, and screen plays will push linebackers out of the box when Pierce is on the field.
Use more Counters! Singletary and Pierce have both shown abilities to find success with inside counter looks.
Here’s the hoping the team finds a win and success against the Tennessee Titans with a positive run game effort.
Thanks for reading and all the support, truly everyone’s positive feedback means a ton to me!
-TC