Houston Texans Key to 2023 Success is the Offensive Line
Houston Texans Key to 2023 Success is the Offensive Line
Hello everyone, TC here. If you are a new subscriber to the Cap & Trade Newsletter, welcome! This newsletter covers the NFL salary cap and roster construction across the league with additional coverage of the Houston Texans. I’ve been covering the Houston Texans since 2012, and have been working at OverTheCap.com for the past 7 years. I hope you find this newsletter informative and digestible.
In this edition of the Cap & Trade Newsletter I wanted to take a look at the Houston Texans offensive line. If you follow the local beat on the Texans news front, there is a high probability you’ve read something about Houston’s offensive line recently.
It’s true. Houston’s offensive line has been at or below the middle of the pack in terms of offensive line performance for a number of years; dating back to the Kubiak days of stellar offensive line performance in the early 2010’s.
For the 2022 season, Houston turned in one of the worst performances across the league with their offensive line. With the incoming rookie, C.J. Stroud, at quarterback and second year runningback, Damien Pierce, offensive line has become a priority position of improvement for the Texans.
On Friday, May 16 General Manager Nick Caserio appeared on Houston SportsRadio 610 with Pendergast & Payne. Caserio was asked about the Shaq Mason and Laremy Tunsil extensions and their timing and how it relates to building the offensive line.
Caserio’s response:
“In the end, it starts from the inside out.”
Building from within the trenches has long been a golden rule for NFL roster construction. With the team drafting C.J. Stroud, building an offensive line foundation for him to work behind, could go a long ways towards Stroud’s health and development.
Offensive Line Roster
Four of the five starting spots along the offensive line are essentially locked in with Laremy Tunsil (LT), Kenyon Green (LG), Shaq Mason (RG), and Tytus Howard (RT). The Center position is to be determined, however I feel Juice Scruggs will have the position on lock down come the first preseason game.
If Houston can complete an extension with Tytus Howard that would put the starting five players under contract for an extended period of time; bringing some year over year cohesiveness to the group. Something we have not seen in Houston in quite some time.
Between 2022 and 2023 offseasons, Nick Caserio has retooled the offensive group with the additions of Kenyon Green, Shaq Mason, Juice Scruggs, and a few other potential rookies. Locking in Laremy Tunsil was also a key addition to the longevity of the position group.
Past Performance
The above scatter plot shows PFF offensive line grading for Run Blocking vs Pass Blocking for the 2022 regular season. As noted early Houston’s offensive line performance in 2022 was, simply put, very bad. The worst run blocking grade in the league on top of below average pass blocking.
The grades are compiled together from the entire position group, including reserve players who may have a lot amount of play time.
Links to each chart and table will be placed at the end of the newsletter. You can visit the link to further interact with the chart or table.
The place to be on this scatter plot is the top right quadrant. The team with the best overall performance was Dallas; a team who made it to the divisional round before losing the the San Francisco 49ers.
Dallas has continued to invest heavily, both in draft and contract extensions, into their offensive line group year over year.
Running Game
This scatter plot shows Yard Per Attempt on Yards Before Contact v. Yards After Contact, during the 2022 regular season. Referencing the above noted PFF run blocking grade there is no surprise in the placement of the Texans players below the median line for Yards Before Contact.
Defensive opponents were routinely in the face of the runningback quickly, totaling multiple run stop success plays.
According to Football Outsiders Houston had the 9th worst “Stuff Rate” with 19%. Stuff Rate is when the ball carrier is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. FO also ranked the Texans 31st in their Adjusted Line Yards metric.
The above table splits the basic rushing data by direction/gap within the offensive line for 2021 and 2022. This includes all players accounted for as a ball carrier, regardless of position. That right tackle running lane is worth mentioning. Tytus Howard Projection can be read here.
Passing Game
This scatter plot is a historical view of Houston’s pass blocking efficiency from 2016 through to the 2022 season.
Pass Blocking will be a critical piece of the performance puzzle for C.J. Stroud’s performance and development in this league.
Stroud’s average time to throw in 2022, at Ohio State, was 2.93 seconds. Stroud’s adjusted completion percentage drops from 80.7% to 66.7% when the time to throw exceeds 2.5 seconds.
Stroud’s PFF passing grade from a clean pocket was a stellar 92.9 with a dramatic drop off to 43.9 when under pressure. PFF also determined that Stroud was responsible or shared responsibility in a QB pressure on 19.5% of his drop backs.
Ben Baldwin, who’s work I have enjoyed over the years, put together this metric scale last year for the 2022 season; breaking down a passing grade metric measured during “true pass sets” which excludes spikes and screen passes.
The numbers match the eye test for Houston. The interior of the offensive line was the primary issue in 2022. Very good tackle performance and very poor guard and center performance.
Looking at this charts paints a clear picture on why Nick Caserio traded for Shaq Mason (superior run blocker) and drafted Juice Scruggs and Jarrett Paterson. The interior portion of the offensive line was in dire need of a make over.
Closing
The organization has utilized a large portion of their draft and salary cap assets towards rebuilding and solidifying the offensive line group. The team alone has 28% of their team salary cap spending allocated to the offensive line. The third highest in the league.
The growth and development of rookie C.J. Stroud will be molded by the performance of the offensive line not only in 2023 but in the years to come. The organization has placed high quality (and high potential) players onto the roster. Now it is up to the coaches to utilize the players to their strengths and produce an offensive line that consistently performs.
If the team can move up into the top third for 2023 across the board on the available metrics, that would be a huge boost for everyone involved.
-TC
Links to Data Tables and Charts (interactive)
Found this insightful