Houston Texans Go All In For 2024
Let's break it all down in this week's newsletter
Hey everyone, TC here,
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Nick Caserio and Demeco Ryans continue their onslaught of the 2024 offseason putting together a roster to maximize the CJ Stroud rookie contract window. Today was another big-time transaction furthering those efforts. The Houston Texans trade for veteran wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
Admittingly I did not expect this move to happen despite the constant rumors for the past three weeks. The salary cap ramifications for the Buffalo Bills were monumental, but not enough of a barrier for their team to make this move.
Trade Details
Per the NFL Management Council Transaction Wire:
Houston received Stefon Diggs and two Day 3 draft selections for sending a 2025 2nd round (owned by Minnesota) draft selection to Buffalo to consummate the trade.
Who won this trade? When a player is involved in a draft pick trade; determining who the winner is can be difficult.
My view on the trade value chart is a net value of a late 2nd/early 3rd round value. This means that if the team were to trade just one draft pick for Stefon Diggs alone, the value for Diggs would be a late 2nd/early 3rd.
Is Stefon Diggs and his remaining 4-year contract worth that value? Time will tell.
Stefon Diggs Contract
In 2022 the Buffalo Bills signed Stefon Diggs to a 4-year contract extension worth $96 million in new money with $47.9 million fully guaranteed and $70 million in total guarantees. A contract that is scheduled to run through the 2027 NFL season. That is a tough bullet to bite when a team trades a player before the start of the new years on a contract extension.
As part of this trade, Houston will absorb the remaining 4 years of the contract minus any paid pro-rated signing bonus money.
The contract currently has $18.5 million in guarantees in place with the potential of another $3.5 million vesting in March 2025, specifically on the fifth day of the 2025 league year. If things were to not work out between Diggs and Houston, the team could easily move on from this contract with little to zero dead money via release or trade.
How Did Houston Set This Up?
The signs were there that the Houston Texans were on the search for a veteran wide receiver, with eyes on a type of receiver that could play both the boundary and the slot.
During the 2023 season, Diggs lined up in the slot on 32% of his snaps and 67% on the outside. Houston prefers to mix their wide receivers across the field with the expectation of running routes from the X, Y, and, Z spots.
Diggs’ route running must be paramount to align with CJ Stroud’s ability to throw players open with specific expectations of the receiver’s expected location.
Draft Pick Trade With Minnesota
First, we circle back to Friday, March 15, when the news broke on a draft pick trade between the Houston Texans and the Minnesota Vikings.
Houston’s move out of the first round perplexed the fans and media. The initial read on the trade was about positioning. The incoming draft class comes with the expectation of strong depth at multiple positions extending into the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
Picking up the future 2nd round pick in 2025 was a nice bonus to cap off the trade. Time to adjust those mock drafts! Or so we thought…
Houston Restructures Another Contract
Then we move up to last Friday, March 29, when the news broke of the Houston Texans completing a contract restructure with offensive tackle Tytus Howard. The move generated $10.3 million in cap savings for the 2024 season.
The transaction pushed the Houston Texans’ projected salary cap to over $31 million in available cap space. The constant question among media and the fanbase…why? Why would the team need that much cap space?
My initial read was perhaps the team was pushing money in 2025 and 2026 to start the cap rollover build-up for expected contracts in the coming seasons. This just in…I was wrong.
Today Houston completes the trade for Stefon Diggs. Fin.
New Look For the Houston Texans Offense
With the addition of Stefon Diggs, and Joe Mixon, re-signing Dalton Schultz, the new emergence of Nico Collins, and upcoming star Tank Dell…the Houston Texans offense is now considered top-tier with CJ Stroud at the helm. Excitement exudes across the fanbase.
What does this mean for the rest of the wide receiver room? Competition brings out the best in players. WR4, WR5, and WR6 are clearly up for grabs between Noah Brown, Robert Woods, John Metchie, Xavier Hutchinson, Steven Sims, Alex Bachman, and maybe a drafted player.
To be clear, I am against releasing veteran wide receiver Robert Woods at this point in the offseason. A release of Woods brings a net cap savings of ~$4.0 million. That amount of money can easily be generated with a small restructure with Tunsil or Diggs.
My recommendation is to keep Woods here to continue competing. If on the off chance, a player incurs a major injury in training camp, which is not out of the realm of possibility, the team would have Woods ready to slide in. If the wide receiver room remains healthy then a release of Woods would be the logical move during the 53-man roster reduction process. The team could also look to find Woods a roster of his choice in return for a conditional future 7th-round draft pick.
Final Thoughts
Overall I am pleased with the trade and the process to get the team to this point. I’ve been on record that I would be against a trade for Diggs, merely for the potential locker room issues. From an on-field performance view, Diggs should be a solid compliment to Nico Collins and Tank Dell.
The trade value is spot on in my opinion, and I am fine with taking on the remaining contract as is.
Perhaps a new landscape will re-invigorate Stefon Diggs not only on the field but in the locker room as well. Regardless of how this plays out, this will be one of the first major tests for the Demeco Ryans’ locker room full of veterans such as Laremy Tunsil, Jimmie Ward, Shaq Mason, Joe Mixon, and none other than CJ Stroud.
Time for PFF Bobby to cook. Is it Week 1 yet?
Until next time…
-TC
So ultimately, we gave up:
2024, round 1, pick 23
2024, round 7, pick 232
We recieved:
2024, round 2, pick 42
2024, round 6, pick 188
2024, round 6, pick 189
2025, round 5, pick x
Stefon Diggs
Is that right?