Home Runs and Headaches: The Best and Worst Free-Agent Deals at Midseason

Looking at Contract Value and Performance Return on Value

Oct 23, 2025

Hey everyone, TC here,

Welcome to another edition of the Cap & Trade Newsletter. Thanks for being here!

As the NFL season reaches the mid-point of the regular season, I want to look at the best and worst free agent signings based on the first half of the season performance.

For this exercise, I queried data from Overthecap.com for two values: contract value in terms of Average Per Year (APY) and Player Valuation. If you are unfamiliar with the OTC Player Valuation tool, you can read about it here. The valuation amount is expressed in APY, which makes for an easy delta comparison.

I compared the delta between the player APY and the Player Valuation to calculate the “value” in terms of APY, generated by each player’s performance (as measured by the Valuation), both positive and negative.

Notes:

A player with a negative delta does not necessarily mean that the player is not performing well for the season. This is only a singular data point compared to the player’s contract value.
I filtered out players to pull only free agents who signed with a new team during the offseason (March through June).

Positive Free Agent Value

Quarterback - Daniel Jones - Indianapolis

Contract APY $14.0m / Valuation $40.19m / Surplus Value $26.19m

Daniel Jones signed a one-year contract with the Indianapolis Colts after finishing the 2024 season with the Minnesota Vikings. Jones targeted situations with the best path to playing time. Signing with Indianapolis was an excellent decision after third-year player Anthony Richardson was injured during training camp, ultimately losing the starting job to Jones.

Jones has thrived in Head Coach (and play caller) Shane Steichen’s system with the Colts, becoming one of the most efficient offenses in the league. Jones is second among quarterbacks in total EPA gained (62.9) on dropbacks this season.

The Colts lead the league with 33.1 points scored per game, and are the highest-ranked based on EPA/Play1.

This has been a home run signing by General Manager Chris Ballard, and a potential job-saving move.

qb stats — EPA+CPOE Composite per RBSDM.com

Defensive Back - Isaiah Rodgers - Minnesota

Contract APY $5.52m / Valuation $26.28m / Surplus Value $20.76m

Isaiah Rodgers signed a two-year contract with the Minnesota Vikings. Prior to the 2025 season, Rodgers was a spot starter/playing time as a defensive back with the Philadelphia Eagles, earning considerable praise for his work in Vic Fangio’s system despite playing only 31% of the defensive snaps.

Rodgers quickly made a name for himself in Minnesota, earning a perfect PFF player grade in week 3 against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Rodgers has excelled in coverage, boasting a QB Rating of 79.6 (when targeted), a 7.2% CPOE2, and generating a total EPA of -11.8 in coverage. Rodgers has also accumulated 7 Run Stops3.

Defensive Back - Jourdan Lewis - Jacksonville

Contract APY $10.0m / Valuation $25.67m / Surplus Value $15.67m

After 8 seasons in Dallas, Jourdan Lewis found a new home with the Jacksonville Jaguars, signing a 3-year contract worth $30.0m ($10.0m APY). Lewis has worked primarily as a slot defender, one of the most challenging positions on the defensive side of the field.

In coverage, Lewis has allowed just 8.6 receptions per coverage snap (11th best as a slot defender) while remaining busy in run defense with a 4.1 run stop percentage (7th best among CBs).

Edge - Harold Landry - New England

Contract APY $14.50m / Valuation $28.38m / Surplus Value $13.88m

Harold Landry signed a 3-year contract worth $43.5m ($14.5m APY) with the New England Patriots during the offseason. By market standards, that is the 25th-highest-paid edge rusher contract.

Under veteran head coach Mike Vrabel (who helped draft Landry in Tennessee), Landry has outplayed his contract value. Landry has already amassed five quarterback sacks with an overall 11.2% pressure rate.

In the run game, Landry sets a hard edge for his linebackers to execute the run stops. New England has the 4th-best run defense (in terms of EPA allowed) in the league.

offense EPA — Defensive Performance by EPA per RBSDM.com

Linebacker - Nate Landman - Los Angeles Rams

Contract APY $1.10m / Valuation $11.76m / Surplus Value $10.66m

Landman is a classic Les Snead signing. Landman spent his first three seasons in Atlanta earning his way onto the roster as an undrafted free agent in 2022. Atlanta opted not to tender him as a restricted free agent. The market was not kind to Landman, who signed a one-year contract for the minimum salary level, including a small $75,000 guarantee.

Landman flashed in training camp and was voted as a team captain by his playing peers at the start of the season. Landman wears the green dot on the defensive side of the field in Los Angeles.

Sean McVay on Landman as a captain and owner of the green dot:

“I think it says a lot about him,” he said. “I think he has really high emotional intelligence in terms of coming in, to be able to ask questions, to really be able to get familiar with his teammates and then being able to pick and choose his spots to be able to lead. I think that position in general, similar to the quarterback and the center position on offense, requires a level of communication. He’s wearing the green dot for us.

Landman excels in run game defense with flawless execution, ranking as one of the most technical tacklers in the league (4th best, with a 3.1% missed tackle rate) and accumulating -13.0 total EPA in run defense. Landman can hold his own in coverage, holding a -2.7% CPOE when targeted.

Landman is positioning himself for a lucrative contract in 2026.

Negative Free Agent Value

Offensive Guard - Aaron Banks - Green Bay

Contract APY $19.25m / Valuation $0.65m / Negative Value ($18.60)m

During the peak of free agency, Aaron Banks signed a 4-year $77.0m contract with the Green Bay Packers. It is worth noting that the contract is a typical Green Bay structure with no guarantees beyond the first year of the contract.

Up to this point, Banks’s performance has not met the expected outcome. In 4 games of work, Banks has yielded 6 quarterback pressures, including 1 sack. Green Bay’s rushing performance, when filtered down to rushes to the “inside left”, has the team ranked 22nd with 3.4 yards per carry.

It is worth noting that Banks is dealing with a lingering back issue. From head coach Matt LaFleur:

“I think backs are always one of those things that are always a problem if they flare up on you. You never quite know. But I feel pretty good about where we are with those guys right now. Both those guys looked great yesterday.”

Green Bay will expect a performance increase for the second half of the season.

Offensive Tackle - Dan Moore - Tennessee

Contract APY $20.50m / Valuation $7.32m / Negative Value ($13.18)m

The contract signed between the Tennessee Titans and veteran tackle Dan Moore was one of the more surprising contracts of the offseason, particularly in terms of its value. Moore signed a 4-year contract worth $82.0 million with $50.0 million in guarantees.

Moore has played 100% of the snaps through 7 games in the 2025 season. However, Moore has allowed 36 quarterback pressures, including 7 sacks. Rookie quarterback Cam Ward is not helping the blocking situation. The team continues to leave Moore on an island with no help from tight ends or runningbacks.

Hopefully, the team will see improvement from Moore as the season progresses, but based on Moore’s previous seasons with Pittsburgh, I would not expect a significant change. The Titans are tied to the Moore contract through the 2026 season at a minimum (absent a trade).

Defensive Line - Tershawn Wharton - Carolina

Contract APY $15.02m / Valuation $2.17m / Negative Value ($12.85)m

Tershawn Wharton signed a 3-year contract worth $45.05 million with the Carolina Panthers during the offseason. Wharton’s previous two years with the Kansas City Chiefs were productive, with 52 quarterback pressures, including 9 sacks.

Through 7 games in Carolina, Wharton has been inactive for 4 of those games. Wharton’s pressure and sack rates have dropped dramatically compared to his previous seasons.

Wharton has shown flashes in the 3 games he’s played. The team has had high expectations for Wharton, and those opinions have not changed.

Head coach Dave Canales during training camp:

“I think one of the great things I love about Turk so far, what I’ve seen is he’s got constant feedback,” noted coach Dave Canales. “He’s talking to the guys that are out there when he’s not out there. When he does go, he jogs off, and he’s sharing something with coach (Todd) Wash. That kind of focus and intentionality, the guy’s been to four Super Bowls, won two. There’s a reason that that culture, he’s bringing that part of it to our team by just showing guys that all these walkthrough reps matter.”

Defensive Line - Grady Jarrett - Chicago

Contract APY $14.25m / Valuation $1.45m / Negative Value ($12.80)m

Grady Jarrett signed a 3-year contract worth $42.75 million with the Chicago Bears quickly after his release from the Atlanta Falcons. The deal came together a couple of days after his release. The inclusion of $27.25 million in total guarantees was larger than expected for the 32-year-old veteran.

Jarrett’s 2024 season was an early indicator of the performance decline that was likely to come in the 2025 season. Jarrett’s run stop performance has dropped from 5.6% to 2.7%, and his pass rush is non-existent with zero sacks and just 3 quarterback pressures.

Chicago will likely have to move Jarrett into a depth role at some point in 2026, despite his $13.0 million guaranteed salary.

Safety - Trevon Meohrig - Carolina

Contract APY $17.00m / Valuation $4.78m / Negative Value ($12.22)m

Trevon Meohrig’s name flew up the free agent leaderboards quickly in February and March after 4 quiet yet productive seasons in Las Vegas. Moehrig signed a 3-year contract worth $51.0 million with the Carolina Panthers. Many across the league felt this was an overpay.

Moehrig’s coverage performance has dropped with his new role in Carolina. When targeted in coverage, his CPOE has vaulted to 6.1% compared to -4.4% and -11.1% in the previous two seasons. One of the most significant indicators is NGS’s Hawk Rate4 with Moehrig’s Hawk Rate at 0.0% through 7 weeks of the season. In his previous two seasons, his Hawk Rate was 19.2% and 22.9%. Moehrig’s run defense has also suffered with a career-high run missed tackle rate of 17.4%.

Free agency is always a tricky situation to assess for NFL teams. The team is paying market value, and in some cases, even top of the market value, while receiving a low return on investment. After the season is over, I will review these numbers from an overall team perspective to determine which teams found the most value.

In 2023, I took a look at these values at a team perspective: