Forecast vs. Friction: Rookie Guarantees Hit a Wall
Only 2 of 32 second-round picks have signed. Why the holdup? A Texans precedent, a retiring QB, and one rookie’s big bet could change everything.
Hey everyone, TC here. I have returned from my cooldown period after another hectic NFL season, followed by a busy free agency, and a crazy draft season. The Houston Texans report to training camp in just 9 days; it's time to get back into the flow of things.
Today, I wanted to add my thoughts to the ongoing discussion about the lack of second-round draft pick contract signings. As of July 14, 2025, only 2 of the 32 players drafted in the second round have signed their 4-year rookie contracts. Wide receiver Jayden Higgins signed with Houston on May 8, and Linebacker Carson Schwesinger on the following day, May 9.
Since then…silence. Keep in mind that unsigned drafted rookies cannot participate in training camp. The allowance of participation, via a participation agreement, in organized team activities (OTAs) is a different aspect of the CBA.
There are a few theories as to why we have reached this boiling point. However, first, let’s take a look at the numbers and the history leading up to the 2025 league year.
The visual above represents the full guarantee percentage for rookie contracts by draft slot number. The green line, representing 2025, is an expected percentage based on a linear regression of the data from 2020 to 2024.
Before the 2025 league year, the 100% full guaranteed contract stopped at the end of the first round. In 2024, the 2.33 pick received 95.69% followed by 91.90% for the 2.34 pick. As outlined above, those two slots have already achieved the 100% threshold.
Why the sudden hold-up with the remaining 30 rookies drafted in the second round? We can explore a few topics:
Houston reset the market at 2.34
Houston set a new precedent by signing Jayden Higgins, drafted 2.34, to a 100% fully guaranteed contract. The signing was completed before Schwesinger signed his contract after being drafted one spot ahead of Higgins.
This topic/data point has minimal impact on the remainder of the second round, as contract signings have not been completed. I realize it's an easy topic to point to as the cause, but, in my opinion, it’s just not true.
Based on the above linear regression, the expected guarantee percentage for Higgins was 96.68%. The move to 100% was minimal. Draft slot 2.34 was on a path to reaching 100% by 2026 at the latest.
I’ve been covering the Houston Texans for many years now. Based on my offline conversations, EVP/GM Nick Caserio favors efficiency over haggling about 4% of guaranteed money. I would place a large amount of money on a Caserio response to be something along the lines of “seriously, is 4% going to make a difference? No, then sign the player and move forward.”
It is worth noting that Nick Caserio has a history of setting new precedents with rookie contracts. In 2022, Houston gave fourth-round draft selection Dameon Pierce an additional $25,000 workout bonus in the second year of the contract. While a relatively small amount, this was unheard of for a fourth-round drafted player contract.
In that same year, Nick Caserio provided Jalen Pitre with a 78.49% contract guarantee after drafting Pitre at 2.37. The reason this is noteworthy is that in the previous year, that draft slot received 68.83% representing a sizeable and unexpected increase. The contract was also executed on May 11, 2023, when other draft slots above/below Pitre did not sign until June or July.
Caserio also has a history of providing strong salary guarantees in veteran contracts. This concept is not a novel idea to Caserio for the 2025 season.
Derek Carr retires, setting up Tyler Shough
This topic has a bigger impact on the situation compared to the Jayden Higgins contract. I’ve hinted at this topic in the past on X. Joel Corry has also made similar connections.
On May 10, 2025, the news came down with the unexpected retirement of New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr. To reiterate, this occurred the day after the contract signings for Higgins and Schwesinger.
Two weeks before this news, the Saints drafted quarterback Tyler Shough at the 2.40 draft slot. Shough’s competition for QB1 instantly became second-year player Spencer Rattler, who was drafted in the 5th round in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Position power, generally, carries little weight in rookie contract negotiations. In the past, I’ve seen some contracts with a slot value above the minimum for drafted day 3 quarterbacks. However, I do not recall any adjustments to position power to guarantee percentages.
The linear regression, noted earlier, had the 2.40 draft slot coming in at 87.18% guarantee percentage. Tyler Shough’s agent camp has identified the scenario of Shough winning the QB1 competition for Week 1 of the 2025 season. Armed with the potential starting quarterback position, the agent has (reportedly) been dead set on a 100% guaranteed rookie contract.
The NFLPA reportedly has distributed similar information to the rookies drafted above and below 2.40, advising them to hold and wait for Shough’s contract to be finalized.
Shough obtaining the 100% would lock in the same for picks 2.35 through 2.39. And picks 2.41 through 2.64 would all benefit with a substantial increase on their respective contract guarantee percentage.
For example, draft slot 2.55 had an expected guarantee of 58.46%. If Shough were to obtain the 100% guarantee, this slot would likely see an increase of 10 to 15 percentage points.
Future draft classes would also benefit from this scenario. Draft slot 2.41 would have the ability to obtain a 100% guarantee with another bump going to the remainder of the second round.
Thanks for stopping by!
-TC