Falcons’ Quarterback Quandary: Was Over-Investing Worth It?
A look at how Atlanta invested in their quarterback position group.
Hey everyone, TC here,
Last night, the Atlanta Falcons released fresh news, triggering renewed questions and discussions on how the organization managed the offseason and its quarterback roster composition.
Rewind to March 12, 2024, when the Falcons announced the signing of free-agent quarterback Kirk Cousins to a new four-year contract. Cousins, who will go into the NFL contract hall of fame (that’s not a real thing), signed a four-year contract worth $180.0 million with $90.0 million fully guaranteed at signing.
We can question, in hindsight, this contract signing easily based on Cousins's recent poor performances on the field; especially for a player 36 years old and coming off an Achilles injury.
Less than two months later, the Falcons selected quarterback Michael Penix Jr. with their first-round, number 8 overall, draft selection.
Prompting the question…why invest so much into the quarterback position?
Kirk Cousins’s Future
First, we should take a look at the Kirk Cousins contract and how it could impact his future.
The logical path forward for the two sides is a player trade. Trading Cousins, and not adjusting the contract concurrently, would result in a $37.5 million dead money charge for Atlanta in 2025 (assuming the trade occurs before June 1st). This would create $2.5 million in cap savings in 2025, and $27.5 million in cash savings for the organization.
An outright release in March 2025, that makes any sense, would need to be a “post-June 1 designation” release. This move would have to be done no earlier than March 13, 2025 with the new league year starting on March 12, 2025, to avoid acceleration of the 2025 guaranteed salary into the 2024 league year salary cap. This type of transaction would create a $40.0 million dead money charge for 2025 and defer the remaining $25.0 million dead money charge to 2026.
A release on March 13, 2025, without the “post-June 1 designation” would create a $65.0 million dead charge on the 2025 salary cap for Atlanta, putting them upside down by $25.0 million.
An additional variable to consider, March 18, 2025 is a vesting date for an additional $10.0 million in guarantees. Cousins is due a lump sum roster bonus of $10.0 million roster bonus (paid in three installments) starting on March 18, 2026; but the guarantee protection kicks in a year earlier.
When Atlanta signed Cousins the contract also included a player no-trade clause. Cousins will have the ability to determine if he wants to be traded and where he could be traded. This will provide Cousins leverage over the situation.
The organization will also wield leverage in this situation.
The best path forward would be for the two sides to work together, and allow Cousins’s agent to speak to other teams to generate a short list of candidates that could give an offer to Atlanta.
If that does not happen, Atlanta’s backup plan should be a direct message to Cousins. “You will be the backup quarterback in 2025.”
Before the start of the regular season in 2025, Cousins will be another year older at the ripe age of 37. Would Cousins be content with losing another year of playing at this point of his career? I can’t answer that question but I am curious how Cousins would respond to such a question.
An additional factor in this situation is the lack of a strong quarterback draft class. More than a few teams will be in the market for a quarterback, such as the New York Jets, New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, Tennessee Titans, and potentially the Seattle Seahawks and the New Orleans Saints.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold will be the top headline quarterback free agent. A team could trade for Kirk Cousins, absorbing the remaining contract, at a fraction of the cash cost versus signing Darnold outright.
Atlanta should be able to recoup some draft equity, at least a late Day 2 pick dependent upont how much salary they are willing to take on in 2025.
Quarterback Investment
Atlanta did something a lot of fans asked for, yet never really wanted to truly do, which is over-invest at the quarterback position. Draft two (Washington did this in 2012) players or draft one and sign another in free agency.
The chances of hitting on your franchise quarterback are very slim. If the team has the available resources (draft and cash) then why not increase your odds of finding a quarterback? The chances of either Penix or Cousins performing at a quality level for multiple years are much higher than depending on one or the other.
I believe, in this case, the situation has been diluted to the negative strictly based on Kirk Cousins’s performance this season. The process was sound. The results have not been as positive. Cousins’s performance doesn’t, objectively, mean this was a bad path for the team.
As Houston Texans, General Manager Nick Caserio says, “Process over results”.
Thanks for the great read on a very interesting and important topic.
Two comments. First, the statement "...[T]he chances of either Penix, Jr. or Cousins performing at a quality level for multiple years are much higher than depending on one or the other" ignores both the money overspent on the position given the cap and the opportunity cost of not drafting another needed position in the top 10 for a team finishing 7-10. When you look at the economics, it was an incredibly bad decision that was made with seemingly little to no process other than Terry Fontenot seeing Penix, Jr. late in the Draft cycle after signing Cousins.
How could that possibly happen in a Draft process?
When the future means possibly having the most expensive backup QB in NFL history sitting on the bench or absorbing the third worst dead cap hit, somebody screwed up royally.
Now, leverage. The extent of leverage often involves an emotional calculus that can drive a person to adopt positions that the other side believes is both unexpected and unreasonable when going in. When that happens, unrealized bad presumptions are quickly turned into leverage for the other side.
This is a cardinal rule of litigation. The worst plaintiff is the plaintiff in litigation who is emotionally invested in the litigation, angry and suing you not for money but on principle. Those cases are excruciatingly difficult and expensive to settle because the litigant doesn't care about numerical valuation or model expense projections...it's about principle and retribution...and those can be extremely expensive indeed to be rid of.
Let's remember briefly how Cousins got to Atlanta. There was talk of him very much wanting to come to Atlanta...rumblings about his wife wanting to be closer to her family. There was talk of Kirk wanting to finish out his career with the Falcons...that Atlanta was like home to his family.
Then, unbelievably, the Atlanta front office mismanaged the Draft - complete with incomprehensible and nonsensical explanations. Cousins was understandably embarrassed and caught flatfooted and only able to confirm that inexplicably, the front office had never discussed drafting Penix, Jr. with him...not even a heads up. He said he was "disappointed" - a word that someone who is pissed says as they stew.
It only got worse from there. GM Terry Fontenot's nervousness, insecurity and utter unpreparedness showed as his nervous leg bobbed up and down in the presser as he failed to explain his "logic" for the pick - all before quickly and unbelievably deflecting questions to a befuddled Raheem Morris.
It was a total car wreck.
Those are the kind of situations that can make a person angry and dig in. The kind of thing that can turn emotion into leverage. Cousins - who has played the front office negotiating game to perfection resulting in piles of money throughout his career - could very well adopt an unreasonable or unpredictable position here to remind the Falcons of just how incompetent their front office is. When you upset someone's family, there are no great guidelines as to the response.
The Falcons' front office seems to be a consistent counter indicator of good judgment and insight. I would suspect that they think everything will go swimmingly - "Kirk is a good dude" they will tell themselves and the owner.
That tells me that this is likely to go sideways.
I wouldn't expect Cousins or his agent to be reasonable about anything here. "The best path forward would be for the two sides to work together," strikes me as hopeful but naive. Recall, that the front office did not work with Cousins when they picked Pennix, Jr. This very likely could start with "I'm not waiving my no trade anywhere...happy to sit on the bench and eat up your cap room and Draft capital until you cut me." Then, perhaps a profanity or two.
Or something like that...thanks again.
Funny you brought up the Texans here. Perhaps Houston GM Nick Caserio ought to worry a little bit more about results over process, because 2024 now makes two Super Bowl calibre rosters that CJ Stroud's ineptitude is going to cost any real chance at being a contender. If I were a Texan fan I would be outraged. I'm a fan of the division rival Jaguars, and even I'm outraged at the total waste that's going on in Houston, but I digress. I'll get off that topic. We're here to talk about Atlanta.
I feel the question that nobody is asking is a very simple one. Why couldn't this have happened in the offseason? You're Substack's resident cap expert Troy. You're the perfect man to ask. Why did Atlanta feel the need to make this move so immediately? Is there any reason based on the numbers behind the scenes to make this move right now? There certainly isn't any football reason for it.
This team still requires just one Washington loss to get right back in the playoff fight, and Washington has a game remaining against Philadelphia. That's what makes this move feel so disingenuous. It's not very hard to read this move as an attempt to miss the playoffs by deliberately making the offence worse, because if Michael Penix is as good as Kirk Cousins right now (specifically, as good as Kirk's 49% personal success rate, which is a stat I like because it ignores Kirk's horrendous turnover luck recently, which will turn around if given long enough to even out), he is one of the best rookie QBs in the history of the league.
If that's the case, why wasn't he starting to begin with, and if it isn't, why are we deliberately making the team worse for no reason? That's why I posed the question I asked you above. Why does this have to happen right now? If this is a decision for 2025, make it in 2025. There is no correlation between QBs playing in their rookie season and their future performance level. None whatsoever, so the Falcons don't need to 'learn what they have' in Michael Penix. They do not need to get him any in-game experience. None of these nebulous concepts have any impact on future winning. They are all just excuses for losing, and always have been.
The only acceptable motivation for making this decision is a marked in-season improvement from Michael, because Kirk has been playing very well, only bedeviled by unreasonably poor turnover rates that will not continue. I suppose this stark improvement out of the rookie is possible, but if that's the truth why haven't we been hearing about it? Players tend to talk about this kind of thing, but I know I for one haven't heard anything about it.
How good does one have to be to maintain a starting job in today's NFL? Kirk's season long stats are the definition of league average, and that's with the horrendous turnover luck. Taking all factors into account, Kirk has probably been around the 12th best QB this season, and even that is not good enough. Even if we close our eyes, merely look at the season long numbers, and pretend he's league average, how does that justify rolling the dice with rookie Michael Penix to try to get the team into the playoffs in the last three games?
I just don't see it Troy. I agree with your fundamental stance that we must value process over results, but even with that I'm not sure how this move happening right now can possibly be construed as a good thing. I'm not taking my vitriol out on you or your piece. It was a very good breakdown of the contract situations, and future steps. Quality as always. I'm just angry at Atlanta for messing it up like they always do.
Although, I'm not sure the meaning of your final paragraph. Kirk's performance was unexpected? I thought Kirk being the 12th best QB in the league was something of a yearly ritual for us all. Did you expect him to be worse or better?
P.S. Is there any way possible to get Kirk Cousins to Houston? That team with a real QB is a Super Bowl contender, and I'll take anything to end the KC-BUF-BAL hegemony, even a successful division rival.