Draft Week!!
Draft Week!!
The week of lies, smoke, mirrors, and everything in between.
Finally! Draft week is here! The week Houston Texans’ fans have been patiently waiting for. Waiting for 15 months since the trade request was made by a former quarterback whom we shall not name.
Houston fans have not witnessed a 1st round draft selection since 2019 and only twice in the past four drafts. Nick Caserio and company have a wealth of assets for the 2022 NFL Draft.
Picks: 3, 13, 37, 68, 80, 107, 108, 170, 205, 207
As expected with Caserio, the chances of those being the actual draft slots is near 0%. Caserio will likely move around in the draft multiple times both up and down.
I am setting the over/under on draft trades at 2.5.
Note: Houston and New England executed a day 3 pick swap as I was writing this.
Draft Pick Trades
Caserio has already completed a draft week trade, trading picks 183 and 245 to New England in exchange for pick 170. This is likely the result of positioning that Caserio mentioned on the morning show Payne & Pendergast. Prior to this trade Houston would have a long wait from pick 108 to pick 183 while missing the entire 5th round through the process.
Adding the 5th rounder puts Houston in a good spot for a tight end, or adds more fuel for trading during the draft.
Who won the trade? That is a very subjective question and difficult to answer.
I currently have eight draft value trade charts for reference. The two I primarily reference is the Jimmy Johnson (JJ) chart and Jason Fitzgerald-Brad Spielberger (JF-BS) chart. The JJ chart is considered to be antiquated but this chart is the common language spoken between teams when executing draft pick trades. The JF-BS chart is an effort created as a result of extensive research on return value from draft picks. Jason & Brad published a book on the topic titled The Drafting Stage.
The JJ chart has a steeper decline in value outside of the Top 7 into the Top 100 as compared the JF-BS chart. Below is a chart showing the difference in decline in value between the two systems.
One chart is not better than the other, but these are the two I reference for consistency. Majority of NFL organizations utilize their own custom point system to value trades.
As noted in the first chart comparing the New England & Houston trade of late round swaps. One chart says Houston gained more value and the other has New England with more value. Best to wait and see how those picks are utilized and performance outcomes of the players selected to determine who won the trade.
Regardless of where a trade occurs in the draft, there is generally a premium attached to trading up. According to the JF-BS system, this was a small premium equal to less than the value of a late 7th round pick.
Potential Round 1 Trades
Moving out of the #3 draft slot appears to be unlikely at this point based on commentary by Nick Caserio and reports around the league. Moving out of the #13 slot appears to be a more likely scenario for Caserio. Let’s take a look at some options.
as I dawn my faux GM hat…
Scenario #1
Pittsburgh Steelers sees Malik Willis still on the board with Houston on the clock at pick #13. New Orleans is eyeing Willis with their pick at #16. Kevin Colbert’s parting gift, as he heads to retirement, is to trade up with Houston to pick #13.
Houston sends #13 & #170 (recently received from New England) for picks #20 and #52.
The net value gained on this trade is equal to 383 points or pick #175 (upper 5th round selection). This would give Houston 8 picks in the Top 108 slots.
Scenario #2
Arizona Cardinals see OT Charles Cross sliding down the board with Houston on the clock with pick #13. Arizona knows New Orleans is looking for their Terron Armstead replacement at tackle. Arizona doesn’t want to take a chance with Baltimore being sneaky at pick #14.
Steve Keim makes the call to Caserio offering picks #23 and #55 for pick #13 and asks for a day 3 toss in.
Sticking with the same theme here. Houston receives a net value of 382 points or pick #175. Houston slides back a bit further to slot #23 but continues gaining value with the additional 2nd round selection.
Scenario #3
The always aggressive Kansas City is lurking for a top tier wide receiver with their eyes on Garrett Wilson out of Ohio State. Brett Veach knows this will take a massive package to leap from the 29th slot up to the 13th slot to get his wide receiver.
Veach makes an offer Caserio can’t refuse with a massive package of picks #29, #94, and their 2023 1st round pick.
Houston gains a huge net value of 1,536 points or pick #17 overall. This is a bit of an oversell with Kansas City. Big moves call for big offers right?
These are just examples of what could happen.
What Will Happen at Pick #3?
Houston has been playing a fantastic game of smoke and mirrors with the media the past week. Just in the past 48 hours I’ve seen reports that Houston is set on Ikem Ekonu, Evan Neal, Ahmad Gardener, and Derek Stingley. Basically the top candidates outside of Travon Walker and Aiden Hutchinson.
Nobody, outside of the Houston organization, knows which direction Caserio will go with their #3 draft selection.
Your guess is as good as mine as to what Nick Caserio will go with the #3 selection. Honestly, due to the large number of needs for this roster, any of the top rated players will go towards fulfilling one of those roster needs.
If I had to power rank them, I would slot them as such:
Derek Stingley
Ikem Ekonu
Ahmad Gardener
Travon Walker
Evan Neal
Stingley and Ekonu are more like 1a and 1b for me based on reports and team needs. Ekonu is the safer choice and would slide in at left guard to start, and eventually move over to left tackle in 2023. Stingley offers the higher ceiling but with some caution flags to go along with him.
Unlikely that Hutchinson gets past Detroit at #2. If that were to happen I don’t see Houston passing on him.
If Caserio stays at pick #13 he should have a good choice of edge rusher, interior defensive lineman, and wide receiver.
Hope everyone has fun this week! Enjoy it! Embrace it! Start of the real rebuild starts Thursday night.
-TC