Daniel Jones’ Impossible Cap Math
Explaining the confusion around the $4.5 million LTBE incentive salary cap charge for the 2026 league year.
Indianapolis Colts veteran quarterback Daniel Jones has an incentive package in his contract that has caused confusion about the likely salary cap charge for the 2026 league year.
I will explain how it all works. Let’s dig in.
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If you prefer to read, follow along below.
Daniel Jones's Two-Year Contract
During the 2026 NFL offseason, the Indianapolis Colts applied the Franchise Tag to quarterback Daniel Jones as the two sides continued to work towards a long-term contract. Subsequently, on March 12th, the two sides agreed to a new two-year contract. The base value of the contract is worth $88 million with $60 million in total guarantees. The contract includes $12 million in incentives over two years, which can bring the maximum contract value to $100 million.
How the salary cap charge is calculated for Jones’s incentives caused some initial confusion. After some research, I had a good idea of why it was calculated that way, but I asked around for additional confirmation.
Daniel Jones Contract Table from
As you see here on Over The Cap dot com, Jones has a $4.5 million charge under the Other Bonus column. This is the column that we at OTC use for Likely To Be Earned incentives.
The NFL management council calculated that, for the 2026 league year, $4.5 million of the available $6 million in incentives was to be calculated as Likely To Be Earned (LTBE).
When I first reviewed the available incentives, I had trouble reconciling the $4.5 million. With my first review, I came up with a much lower LTBE amount. If you have watched my Salary Cap 101 series on Incentives, you will know that incentives are based on previous season performance. I’ll link that video in the description below. As we know, the Colts did not make the playoffs in 2025 and did not have 10 wins. Daniel Jones finished the 2025 season with 70% of the offensive snaps after missing time with an injury.
When I have questions, my first place to look for answers is the Collective Bargaining Agreement between the NFL Owners and the NFL Players Association.
Team Incentives - Likely To Be Earned - Explained
For incentives, you will need to review Article 13 - Section 6, and then find Part C of the Incentives section. There are, what feels like, a million sub and sub-sub sections in this part of the CBA. It can be mind-numbing sometimes.
Screen Cap from the NFL/NFLPA Collective Bargaining Agreement
Subsection 17 and Subsection 26 are the two applicable sections for properly calculating Jones’s LTBE incentives.
Subsection 17 states that any incentive bonus based on the team’s ranking in its division automatically will be deemed “likely to be earned”.
Subsection 26 states that if more than eight different team performance categories are included, all but the eight lowest value amounts will be deemed “likely to be earned”.
These two subsections are important to keep in mind as we go through the incentives in this player contract. Let’s take a look at the details.
There are incentives for Jones’s playtime plus the team making the playoffs; there are incentives for Jones’s playtime + playoff team performance (i.e., winning playoff games). There are incentives for a higher playtime rate plus team performance for wins, making the playoffs, and winning the division (remember subsection 17?). The contract also includes incentives for playtime plus team regular-season wins. And there are players’ honors incentives.
Daniel Jones 2026 Incentive Package
In total, this is $6 million in incentives just for the 2026 season. Big opportunity for Jones to earn additional money, provided he is healthy, and the team plays well. With Jones as the quarterback, his performance will have a strong correlation with the team’s wins and playoff achievements.
Referencing the two subsections of the CBA mentioned earlier (subsections 17 and 26). We can identify the applicable incentives that will be applied to the $4.5 million LTBE salary cap charge.
There are 13 categories in total, with team performance attachments. As per subsection 17, we know the 75% playtime plus team wins division for $250,000 is LTBE. If we remove the lowest 8 categories, we find an additional $4.25 million in LTBE incentives, bringing the total to the aforementioned $4.5 million. Those categories are circled in red.
The Playtime & Playoff Incentive list can be confusing based on the contract language. Each part is included in the count of 13. If Jones plays 90% of the snaps plus the team makes the playoffs, that would equal $550,000. All of those categories become wrapped into the count.
Daniel Jones Incentives | Areas Classified as LTBE
Yes, it can be confusing. Sometimes, the NFL Management Council does things that we can’t truly explain. This is the management council’s world; we are just living in it.
Sometimes, to get answers to our questions, we have to dig a little deeper into the available resources. Ask around with some knowledgeable folks. The NFL salary cap world is a friendly group.
I hope this helps explain an odd situation with LTBE incentives in Daniel Jones’s contract. While this may be a rare situation, this won’t be the last time you run into this type of scenario.
-TC