Contract Projection: Jonathan Greenard
Contract Projection: Jonathan Greenard
Jonathan Greenard is set to enter the free agent market as an Unrestricted Free Agent with the Houston Texans working to bring him back to pair with Will Anderson Jr.
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Officially official the NFL offseason has arrived for the Houston Texans. What better way to kick things off than by taking a look at the potential contract projection for defensive end Jonathan Greenard.
Houston Texans have multiple pending free agents for the 2024 offseason. Jonathan Greenard will garner the most interest amongst the fan base and across the league. Greenard has completed his initial 4-year rookie contract.
Greenard’s stat line for the 2023 season showcased his abilities and a glimpse into what kind of disruptor Greenard can be on the defensive line.
Greenard excelled in his transition to the “Wide 9” technique under Head Coach Demeco Ryans’ system. Greenard was able to utilize his speed and burst from the outside edge displaying various hand techniques to win match-ups against some of the best offensive tackles.
If you are a new subscriber to Cap & Trade welcome to how I complete my contract projections.
For my projections, I look at the player's statistical performance over the past two seasons and compare those numbers against comparable players. The comparable players’ statistics are generated from each respective player’s previous two seasons before signing their respective contracts.
I firmly believe the Houston Texans and the other 31 teams will not view Greenard as a top of the market type defensive end. Greenard should be viewed in the Tier 2 group of players.
Bio
Jonathan Greenard will turn age 27 in May. Drafted #90 overall by the Houston Texans in the 3rd round of the 2020 draft out of the University of Florida. Greenard is listed as 6’3 - 263 lbs with lengthy 34” arms.
As noted in the above screen capture from PlayerProfiler.com, Greenard did not display top-tier measurements coming out of college.
Injury History
Greenard has an injury history that will cause concern for multiple teams. Given this history of injuries, and not yet completed a full season, Greenard should expect his contract to reflect concessions towards injury liability for the team.
Comparable Players
The following players were selected as comparable players for this contract projection: Trey Hendrickson, Harold Landry, Alex Highsmith, Danielle Hunter, and Shaquil Barrett.
Below is a table of the overall contract metrics for the comparable players via Overthecap.
The basic metrics are self-explanatory. “% of Cap” is a measure of the contract APY as a percentage of the league's unadjusted salary for the year the contract was signed.
The above table shows the different contract metrics I reference when building a contract projection.
Comparable Player Statistics
Looking at age and playtime for the two seasons before signing their contract, we can see the injury history become very clear for Greenard. Worth noting that Greenard is two years younger than three of the comparable players (at signing) and has an opportunity to eliminate the injury history reputation.
For the above data table, I pulled data from PFF and NGS, again for the player’s two seasons before signing their respective contracts. (Tr_P_Rush = True Pass Set Pass Rush from PFF).
I included as many “rate” measurements as possible to provide an accurate representation of each player’s performance as compared to hard numbers. The rates are a percentage of dropbacks, snaps, or runs defended.
Video
I could do a whole newsletter just with video clips on Greenard, but I wanted to show three videos showcasing Greenard’s abilities.
Greenard shows a good burst with a strong hand swipe to create a clear path to the quarterback for the sack.
Greenard can keep his base low to get underneath the blocker’s pads, demonstrating that here against Jake Matthews. Greenard walks Matthews back to disrupt the run design.
Burst burst burst. Greenard showcases his quick read and speed to bring down the inside run for the run stop.
Contract Projection(s)
Now that we have the comparable players, their contract metrics, and individual player performance metrics we can start building out the contract projection for Jonathan Greenard.
When I do these projections I try to present the information in a way that teams and agents would potentially present. There are likely additional metrics available at the team or agent level, which I do not have access to, that would be relevant to the contract negotiation.
Below I have two contract proposals. Offer one is on the low end coming from the team side. Offer two is on the high end coming from the agent side. Potentially the two sides would meet somewhere in the middle on the final contract execution.
Houston's contract framework for a player in this situation is a 2 or 3 year contract length with a strong signing bonus structure and salary guarantees. This structure would fall under the “hybrid” structure model.
Offer One
The team side, Houston Texans, brings an offer to the table worth $46.5 million over 3 years with $25.5 million in total guarantees. Greenard would earn a $16.0 million signing bonus, a full salary guarantee for 2024, and a partial amount full guarantee in 2025 at signing totaling $21.5 million. An additional $2.25 million is available in performance incentives for sacks. The average annual value on the (base value) contract is $15.5 million. The contract is 6.4% of the projected league salary cap.
Offer Two
The agent contract offer on behalf of Jonathan Greenard comes in at $54.75 million over 3 years with $36.5 million in total guarantees. Greenard would earn a $20.0 million signing bonus, a full salary guarantee in 2024, and a partial guarantee in 2025 with the remaining amount vesting twelve months after signing. The agent offers a concession with larger per-game roster bonuses. The same $2.25 million in performance incentives are also available. The contract is 7.5% of the projected league salary cap.
Summary
Jonathan Greenard is set to earn a life-changing contract within the next 45 days. I do believe teams will view Greenard as more of a 1B or tier two edge defender as opposed to a game-breaking player like Maxx Crosby or Montez Sweat.
The franchise tag is an unlikely situation for the Houston Texans. The franchise tag is set to be worth ~$23.3 million. Using the franchise tag would quickly alter the baseline for Greenard’s agent to a two-year value of $51 million, which equals the value of two franchise tags.
I will say, personally as a fan, it is difficult to write this up with an unexpectedly low value for Greenard. This time of the year I try to take off the Houston Texans hat and go Rob Lowe style with the NFL hat in an attempt to remove bias.
The Houston fan base, for the most part, appears to want Greenard back on the roster to pair with Will Anderson Jr. for the next few seasons.
Head coach Demeco Ryans was very clear in his end of season press conference. Ryans is expecting a heavy investment in the defensive line, both in free agency and the draft, to build a formidable 4 man front.
Re-signing Greenard would be a big step towards Ryans’ request for a big time front 4 defensive line.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. Should the Texans re-sign Jonathan Greenard?
P.S.
I wanted to give a huge shout-out to the University of Houston Law Center for their victory at the Tulane University Pro Football Contract Negotiation Competition. The team was led by Mike Meltser (former 610 radio host, and current Sirius XM radio host) overcoming over 40 teams over a two-day competition culminating in Houston’s First Place finish.
-TC