30 Under the Radar NFL Free Agents
The big names are always popular. What about the forgotten next tier?
Hey everyone, TC here,
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Finding value in the world of NFL free agency is one of the most difficult tasks for team front offices. Teams are paying market value (sometimes more) for a player that was allowed to hit the open market. The notion of signing another Johnathan Joseph is a low-percentage outcome.
Nick Caserio has shown a propensity to find value in the world from free agency. No GM can always hit with their free agency class, Caserio has had plenty of misses along the way.
The 2024 free-agent class is a significantly stronger group than the past two classes. There is a large group of well-known player names potentially hitting the market. Houston could easily sign one or two of that type of player.
Houston has a swath of roster spots to fill, a portion of that will come from re-signing pending free agents and fresh players from free agency. Many of those players will come from the tier two and lower (second wave…whatever term you want to use) of free agency.
For years I’ve shouted from the rooftops that NFL teams will find the most surplus value in two areas: 1) 2nd & 3rd rounds of the draft and 2) 2nd & 3rd waves of free agency.
Sure, a big splash in free agency is exciting for the fan base. The likelihood of that player meeting or exceeding that top-tier free-agent contract is low, much lower than fans would realize.
In this week’s newsletter, I wanted to look at 30 players that may not garner as much attention from the media…but should.
Each player listed will have their OTC Valuation for the 2023 season included. It is worth noting the OTC Valuation is merely a measurement displayed in APY value and is not designed to represent market value or align with a potential player contract value. In short, the number next to the player does not mean that is the contract value they should receive.
Running Back
To go with a Tier 2 type free agent running back often means trying to find two complimentary running backs to form a committee of sorts. The committee has both an appeal and a negative. Fresh legs and finding the “hot hand” are positives to the approach. On the other hand, the committee approach can lead to scheme and play calling specific based on which player lines up in the backfield.
D’Andre Swift ($5,730,000)
Zack Moss ($4,038,000)
A.J. Dillon ($3,925,000)
Antonio Gibson ($2,681,000)
Tight End
Of all the position groups in free agency, the tight-end group is the most limited in finding value. Dalton Schultz will be the headliner of the group next month in March if Houston opts to not re-sign him. The two names that jump out at me for value are:
Noah Fant ($5,406,000)
Adam Trautman ($4,692,000)
Wide Receiver
NFL teams have continually invested heavily in the wide receiver position both in veterans (via extensions) and through the draft. Teams can find surplus value in a WR3 through free agency. The following players provided value in 2023 and should be able to replicate that in 2024 if signed to the system matching their talents.
Josh Reynolds ($9,245,000)
K.J. Osborn ($6,239,000)
D.J. Chark ($6,084,000)
Darnell Mooney ($4,997,000)
Curtis Samuel ($4,486,000)
Defensive Line - Interior
The free agent class in this position is primed to see a large amount of money made. A few of the top-tier players could see the franchise tag. Once you get past the top-tier players here are a few names to keep an eye out for. Finding a quality interior defender under $10 million APY can generate surplus value
Denico Autry ($11,064,000)
DJ Reader ($7,011,000)
Justin Jones ($6,523,000)
Grover Stewart ($3,652,000 - Suspension drove down his valuation)
Defensive Line - Edge
The tier 2 edge group is light this year once you get past the top seven players. The position group is top-heavy with a strong drop-off to the next group. There is potential here to find a scheme fit player at pennies on the dollar. The edge position has a history of coming at a premium price, but this group may prove that to be wrong.
Michael Hoecht ($10,759,000)
Mike Danna ($10,247,000)
DJ Wonnum ($9,857,000)
Bryce Huff ($9,565,000 - expected to sign with Washington)
Za’Darius Smith ($9,232,000)
Linebacker
The linebacker free agent class of 2022 had a huge return on value surplus for the 2023 season. Next week’s newsletter will dive heavily into that subject. Teams will be searching again for that type of return within the linebacker ranks.
Azeez Al-Shaair ($12,550,000)
Nicholas Morrow ($6,879,000)
Kenneth Murray ($4,997,000)
Jordyn Brooks ($4,694,000)
Cornerback
The free agent group at cornerback in whole is easily the weakest group. Teams may be looking at the trade market to find value at the position onto of the draft.
Stephon Gilmore ($7,632,000)
Ahkello Witherspoon ($6,343,000)
Safety
The safety position is an area where teams can find some positive value at a low cost in free agency this year. The safety position is the group I expect the bring the most value surplus on investment for the 2024 season. Below are some Tier 2 players to look for.
Geno Stone ($11,841,000)
Jordan Fuller ($7,232,000)
Jordan Whitehead ($6,354,000)
Kyle Dugger ($5,625,000)
Kamren Curl ($5,090,000)
Summary
There is always value to be made in the second and third waves of free agency. Teams can make free agency splashes but rarely do those deals work out from a return on investment perspective. The variance with second and third wave players is much lower.
Will your team make a big splash? Do any specific players have our attention for your team? Let me know in the comments below.
-TC
P.S.
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