10 Questions for the Houston Texans Heading Into the 2026 Offseason
A difficult offseason lies ahead for the Houston Texans organization.
After another disappointing loss in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, the Houston Texans face a difficult set of questions about their 90-man roster for the 2026 league year.
Hey everyone, TC here. Welcome back to the Cap & Trade Newsletter. The NFL offseason is nearly upon us, and it is already here for the Houston Texans. In today’s newsletter, I will cover areas of concern for the Houston Texans’ roster for the 2026 league year.
General Manager Nick Caserio and Head Coach Demeco Ryans will have some difficult decisions to make. For the first time in the Caserio era, the team will head into the offseason in a difficult salary cap position.
Yes… that is a negative number for effective cap space. Don’t fret, Houston fans: there’s salary-cap flexibility on the roster. The team will need to review available restructures, renegotiations, and extensions to secure the cap dollars needed to fill out a competitive roster for the 2026 season.
For the 2026 league year, I am currently using a league salary cap of $300.0 million. This will be updated as more information becomes available in late February. I am projecting the team to rollover $4,000,082 from 2025 to 2026 and a positive annual adjustment of $4,966,659. This creates an adjusted team salary cap of $308,966,741. Official rollover and adjustment amounts will be known in the coming weeks, leading up to March 11, 2026.
Before any of that can happen, the team will need to find solutions to the following questions/tasks (not in any particular order). Here are 10 questions/issues the team has to answer to create a path towards a successful offseason.
Will Anderson Jr. will become the highest-paid defensive player in the league at some point this offseason. The team moved quickly with Derek Stingley last year. The numbers are easy. Figuring out the structure is the main task on this massive extension. Will Nick Caserio stick to the usual 3-year template? Or will he deploy a new contract structure that utilizes void years and/or option years?
What to do with Joe Mixon for 2026? All current signs point towards a release in the coming weeks. The team opted to pay Mixon his full $7.0 million base salary for the 2025 season, despite having no obligation while he remained on Reserve/Non-Football Injury. A release would generate $7.12m in cap savings and save $8.5 million in cash.
What to do with Jimmie Ward for 2026? Ward finished the season on Reserve/Physically Unable to Perform. This will cause his contract to toll forward to the 2026 league year. Ward’s $2.0 million salary protection will also move forward with the contract. The cap savings are a net zero outcome on a release, while saving $1.25 million in cash.
How to manage Tytus Howard’s salary cap figure for 2026? After completing contract restructures in 2024 and 2025, Howard’s salary cap charge for 2026 is at an untenable $27.91 million. The options are: complete another restructure, complete a contract extension or renegotiation, or release Howard outright. Howard has emerged as a leader in the offensive line room. While subject to multiple position changes during the season, Howard is a critical piece to the offensive line. An extension or renegotiation would make the most sense here; both would generate substantial salary cap savings.
Determine how to manage the interior defensive line position group. The team was proactive in extending standout defensive tackle Tommy Togiai. Now the team has decisions to make with defensive tackles Sheldon Rankins, Denico Autry, and Tim Settle. All three players are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents on March 11, 2026. Re-signing more than one player seems unlikely. I would place Rankins as the leader in the clubhouse for returning for the 2026 season on a new contract.
The roster is flush with restructuring candidates that will generate substantial cap savings in 2026 while pushing more cap dollars into the future. Houston has upwards of $40 million in available cap savings with contract restructures with defensive end Danielle Hunter, wide receiver Nico Collins, cornerback Derek Stingley, and defensive back Jalen Pitre. How much will Caserio dip into the restructure jar, which he has consistently used in the past, remains to be seen.
Additional restructure candidates could include linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair and tight end Dalton Schultz. However, both players are in the final year of their respective contracts and could be seeking contract extensions, including new bonuses, instead of a basic restructure.
Determine the market valuation for offensive guard Ed Ingram and decide if Ingram should be re-signed for the future or not. Ingram found success in Houston, working in a power/gap type scheme under offensive line coach Cole Popovich. Houston will need to consider the scheme nature of Ingram’s success within the market valuation.
Continuing with the offensive line, could the team look at bringing back veteran offensive tackle Trent Brown? Brown is 32 years old and played just 7 games in 2025. The run offensive line performed above average when Brown was in at right tackle. The cost to re-sign should be relatively low given Brown’s age and injury history.
Last but not least, quarterback C.J. Stroud. Barring some sort of below top-of-market contract, Houston should consider sitting tight on any contract extension with Stroud. The team will likely exercise the 5th-year option for Stroud (worth $26.53 million) and reconvene after the 2026 season. Currently, there is zero doubt in my mind that Stroud is QB1 in Houston for the 2026 season. However, the team needs to find new ways to challenge Stroud in 2026. Perhaps a new quarterback coach and even a new veteran offensive coordinator could bring Stroud back to the fold with a stronger coaching approach. Stroud needs emotional management to rein him in. His highs are too high, and his lows are too low. The two sides now have 2 years (worth $32.22 million) to determine a direction for the offense. Stroud will need a successful 2026 to prove he deserves a top-tier quarterback contract.
These are the first set of questions the Houston Texans will need to answer heading into free agency, which opens March 11, 2026. This is just one piece of the offseason puzzle. Other items on the checklist include determining the true needs of the roster and developing the 2026 cash budget.
I will have continuous offseason content not only for the Houston Texans but for the league-wide here on Cap & Trade and over on the Cap & Trade YouTube Channel. Follow along for what is to be another interesting offseason for the Houston Texans and across the league.
-TC
Excellent work as usual! I agree that Texans should wait on CJ's extension.