A frantic bidding war, where players/agents and NFL teams must make quick, decisive decisions, begins the second the NFL draft ends. An offer from a team may last no longer than a phone call before the direction shifts.

The contract guarantees for undrafted free agents have skyrocketed in recent years. A few undrafted rookies will earn a larger guarantee than that of a player drafted in the 7th round. One limiting factor is that the amount of money available per team for signing bonuses is locked each year by a pool amount.

Teams have shifted their approach by offering large base salary (P5) guarantees to prospective players. The large guarantees are used to entice the players to sign with the team.

From the team's perspective, this can count toward a potential prepayment for a 69-man roster spot. Let’s explain.

Historical Guarantee Increases
(data sourced for 2016 through 2024)

For context, dating back to the 2016 league year, the average total guarantee per UDFA signed was $8,972. Fast forward to the 2024 league year, and that total guarantee number was $62,199. A massive 593% increase over 8 years.

The total amount of guaranteed P5 across all 32 teams has now exceeded $20 million (for the 2024 league year).

The average guaranteed P5 across all 32 teams has spiked to over $600,000. The drastic difference from 8 years prior.

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Pre-Payment Methodology

Historically, 28% of of UDFA’s make the same team’s week 1 practice squad. This number has increased since the inception of the 2020 collective bargaining agreement to over 32%. One reason for this increase is that the CBA locked in practice squad salaries in 2020. Teams no longer have the ability to offer higher salaries to entice players to sign to their practice squad.

To counter this, teams are offering larger P5 guarantees in lieu of larger salaries.

NFL teams are now viewing the large P5 guarantee package as a pre-payment for practice squad salaries. When a UDFA receives a three-year contract that includes a guaranteed salary, that guarantee has offset language attached.

Offset language essentially means if a player earns cash from another contract, any cash earned would offset what the previous contract paid out.

For example, Player A receives a three-year UDFA contract with a $10,000 signing bonus and $180,000 P5 guarantee for the 2026 league year. The player is waived at the end of training camp and re-signed to the team’s practice squad. The player’s salary for the practice squad in 2026 is $247,500. However, the team will only pay a total of $257,500 (including the aforementioned signing bonus) for the player to remain on their practice squad for 18 weeks. The player does not earn $190,000 + $247,500. The amounts paid offset each other.

In short, the guarantee attached to the original contract could be viewed as a pre-payment for the player’s practice squad salary. A similar reaction would apply if the player were waived and signed with another team’s practice squad.

With this methodology, teams are now more inclined to offer large salary guarantees up front, knowing the total cash outlay for the season is not overly affected. Teams can no longer offer higher base salaries to entice UDFA’s to their organization, and signing bonuses are limited in availability due to restrictions on the signing bonus pool.

To counter this, teams are offering large P5 guarantees to prospective UDFA’s, knowing that the guarantee could cover the player’s salary for the season while on their practice squad.

A few teams have continued to avoid this methodology because it conflicts with their contract structure and standards. Teams such as Pittsburgh, Green Bay, and Cincinnati (generally) do not provide guaranteed salaries with UDFA contracts. Below are a few examples of the high-end and low-end guarantees given during the 2024 league year for UDFA’s.

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I will explain how it all works. Let’s dig in.

If you prefer the video version of this article, check out my YouTube Channel - Cap & Trade:

If you prefer to read, follow along below.

Daniel Jones's Two-Year Contract

During the 2026 NFL offseason, the Indianapolis Colts applied the Franchise Tag to quarterback Daniel Jones as the two sides continued to work towards a long-term contract. Subsequently, on March 12th, the two sides agreed to a new two-year contract. The base value of the contract is worth $88 million with $60 million in total guarantees. The contract includes $12 million in incentives over two years, which can bring the maximum contract value to $100 million.

How the salary cap charge is calculated for Jones’s incentives caused some initial confusion. After some research, I had a good idea of why it was calculated that way, but I asked around for additional confirmation.

Daniel Jones Contract Table from

Overthecap.com

As you see here on Over The Cap dot com, Jones has a $4.5 million charge under the Other Bonus column. This is the column that we at OTC use for Likely To Be Earned incentives.

The NFL management council calculated that, for the 2026 league year, $4.5 million of the available $6 million in incentives was to be calculated as Likely To Be Earned (LTBE).

When I first reviewed the available incentives, I had trouble reconciling the $4.5 million. With my first review, I came up with a much lower LTBE amount. If you have watched my Salary Cap 101 series on Incentives, you will know that incentives are based on previous season performance. I’ll link that video in the description below. As we know, the Colts did not make the playoffs in 2025 and did not have 10 wins. Daniel Jones finished the 2025 season with 70% of the offensive snaps after missing time with an injury.

When I have questions, my first place to look for answers is the Collective Bargaining Agreement between the NFL Owners and the NFL Players Association.

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Team Incentives - Likely To Be Earned - Explained

For incentives, you will need to review Article 13 - Section 6, and then find Part C of the Incentives section. There are, what feels like, a million sub and sub-sub sections in this part of the CBA. It can be mind-numbing sometimes.

Screen Cap from the NFL/NFLPA Collective Bargaining Agreement

Subsection 17 and Subsection 26 are the two applicable sections for properly calculating Jones’s LTBE incentives.

Subsection 17 states that any incentive bonus based on the team’s ranking in its division automatically will be deemed “likely to be earned”.

Subsection 26 states that if more than eight different team performance categories are included, all but the eight lowest value amounts will be deemed “likely to be earned”.

These two subsections are important to keep in mind as we go through the incentives in this player contract. Let’s take a look at the details.

There are incentives for Jones’s playtime plus the team making the playoffs; there are incentives for Jones’s playtime + playoff team performance (i.e., winning playoff games). There are incentives for a higher playtime rate plus team performance for wins, making the playoffs, and winning the division (remember subsection 17?). The contract also includes incentives for playtime plus team regular-season wins. And there are players’ honors incentives.

Daniel Jones 2026 Incentive Package

In total, this is $6 million in incentives just for the 2026 season. Big opportunity for Jones to earn additional money, provided he is healthy, and the team plays well. With Jones as the quarterback, his performance will have a strong correlation with the team’s wins and playoff achievements.

Referencing the two subsections of the CBA mentioned earlier (subsections 17 and 26). We can identify the applicable incentives that will be applied to the $4.5 million LTBE salary cap charge.

There are 13 categories in total, with team performance attachments. As per subsection 17, we know the 75% playtime plus team wins division for $250,000 is LTBE. If we remove the lowest 8 categories, we find an additional $4.25 million in LTBE incentives, bringing the total to the aforementioned $4.5 million. Those categories are circled in red.

The Playtime & Playoff Incentive list can be confusing based on the contract language. Each part is included in the count of 13. If Jones plays 90% of the snaps plus the team makes the playoffs, that would equal $550,000. All of those categories become wrapped into the count.

Daniel Jones Incentives | Areas Classified as LTBE

Yes, it can be confusing. Sometimes, the NFL Management Council does things that we can’t truly explain. This is the management council’s world; we are just living in it.

Sometimes, to get answers to our questions, we have to dig a little deeper into the available resources. Ask around with some knowledgeable folks. The NFL salary cap world is a friendly group.

I hope this helps explain an odd situation with LTBE incentives in Daniel Jones’s contract. While this may be a rare situation, this won’t be the last time you run into this type of scenario.

-TC

Hey everyone, TC here. Thanks for returning to the Cap & Trade Newsletter. Now that NFL Free Agency has slowed down, I am back with an interesting look at NFL contract management using the Danielle Hunter contracts with the Houston Texans.

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But first, we must go back two years to March 13, 2024. Danielle Hunter’s contract with the Minnesota Vikings expired. The two sides could not reach an agreement on an extension. The two-day “legal tampering” period started on March 11, 2024. During that period, the Houston Texans reached an agreement with the star edge rusher.

Prior to that, Houston was unable to reach an agreement with their own star edge rusher, Jonathan Greenard. He would subsequently sign with the Minnesota Vikings on March 15, 2024.

Based on two years of performance, Houston came out with the better player. And I say that not to diminish Greenard’s performance in Minnesota, where he has been a fantastic addition to Brian Flores’ defense.

Performance numbers below are from Pro Football Focus.

First Contract

Hunter’s first contract with Houston was a 2-year agreement worth $49.0 million. The contract included $48.0 million fully guaranteed. The contract was essentially fully guaranteed, except for the $500,000 per year per-game active roster bonuses. At the time, this placed Hunter inside the Top 7 among edge rushers based on the (APY) Average Per Year metric. Hunter’s APY was $24.5 million. The contract was also valued at 9.6% of the salary cap.

Hunter’s first season with Head Coach Demeco Ryans did not disappoint. Hunter finished the season with 74 quarterback pressures, including 12 sacks. The success of the Houston defense relied heavily on the premier edge duo of Danielle Hunter and second-year edge Will Anderson Jr. Hunter was voted to the Pro Bowl and received votes towards the Associated Press Defensive Player of the Year award.

Second Contract

Twelve months and 6 days later, Houston and Hunter would reach a new agreement on a 2-year contract extension. The new money on the extension was $55.1 million, of which $54.1 million was fully guaranteed. The contract mirrored the structure of the previous two-year agreement, including three void years for salary-cap purposes.

The new money guarantee was valued at $34.6 million. The contract APY percentage of the salary cap increased to 12.8%.

Hunter’s second season under Demeco Ryans was a huge improvement over the strong 2024 performance. Hunter generated 92 quarterback pressures, including 19 sacks. Hunter was named to the Associated Press defensive second-team All-Pro.

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Third Contract

A mere 356 days passed before the Houston Texans and veteran Danielle Hunter reached another contract extension agreement. A one-year, $40.1 million (new money) extension was completed. $39.6 million of the contract, through the 2027 season, is fully guaranteed.

The new money guarantee was valued at $17.0 million. The contract APY percentage increased again, to 13.3%. Based on the APY metric, Hunter is currently the fourth-highest-paid edge rusher.

Contract Management

Hunter’s agency, Klutch Sports, is one of the top-tier agencies. Hunter is repped by Zeke Sandhu of Klutch Sports.

To be clear, to maintain contract extensions with rolling guarantees, the player has to perform at a high level on the field. Hunter seems to love playing for the Houston Texans and is a resident of the area.

Above, I used the term “rolling guarantees”. That term can be used in various contexts, but for this analysis, I am referring to contract extensions that include new guaranteed money.

Klutch Sports identified Houston’s contract management style to align with this continuous rolling guarantee structure while maintaining flexibility for their client. Hunter’s contracts have provided him with maximum cash earnings across multiple years.

Traditionally, NFL teams prefer to execute lengthier contracts. This provides the team side with affordable terms in years 3/4/5, along with some control over the player’s status and availability to the rest of the league.

Nick Caserio, Executive Vice President and General Manager, has executed short-term contracts for both incoming free agents and in-house talent. All of Caserio’s free agent contracts have remained at two years or less in length. Contract extensions have not exceeded three years in length (new years). This is done to provide roster flexibility and to keep players’ drive towards new contract rewards.

Currently, Hunter has four years’ worth of contract years totaling $144.2 million ($36.05 million APY). Of that total amount, $141.7 million was guaranteed.

Between March 2025 and March 2026, Hunter amassed $51.6 million in new guarantees and $99.6 million in new guarantees after the initial two-year agreement.

Maintaining a short-term contract structure, along with top-tier on-field performance, provided Hunter and his agency an avenue for the continuous extension of rolling guarantees. Having an agent who can identify a team’s contract structure and build a contract plan around it to benefit the player is critical to maximizing cash earnings.

Danielle Hunter executed on the field. Zeke Sandhu and company executed off the field. A perfect tandem.

-TC

Hey everyone, TC here. Happy to have you here as I prepare for the NFL free agency rush coming down the pipeline in 5 days.

A large chunk of business is completed during the week of the NFL combine. Illegal…legal…nobody cares. The NFL creates so many story lines this week.

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Franchise Tags:

Kyle Pitts (TE) - $15.045 million. The Atlanta Falcons have a new head coach in Kevin Stefanski. Bringing his west-coast system to the NFC South, a system that could generate a big performance year for Kyle Pitts. The two sides have until July 15th to complete a contract beyond the tender. Newly minted General Manager Ian Cunningham could opt to wait on a new contract and use the franchise tag as the audition for Pitts. The top of the tight end market is currently set at $19.1 million APY with George Kittle.

George Pickens (WR) - $27.298 million. The Dallas Cowboys applied the franchise tag early in the designation period. The two sides are not quite at the same valuation. Pickens would easily eclipse the $30 million APY market on the open market. I expect a long-term contract to be completed near the July 15th deadline. Similar to the timeline of Dallas and Dez Bryant in 2015.

Breece Hall (RB) - $14.293 million. The two sides (NY and Klutch Sports) were close on executing a long-term contract, but ultimately ran out of time. The franchise tag designation was applied by the team to buy another 4 months of negotiating time. I don’t expect this negotiation to drag out until July. A new contract with an APY in excess of $15 million could be completed quickly. Additional insight from Connor Hughes on X on why New York opted for the franchise tag over the transition tag.

Daniel Jones (QB) - $37.833 million (Transition). The Indianapolis Colts were trying to complete contract extensions with both quarterback Daniel Jones and wide receiver Alec Pierce. The team could use only one tag, and ultimately decided to use the transition tag with Daniel Jones. Jones will be able to negotiate with other teams, and Indianapolis will have the right to match any offer. If the team does not match, Jones will depart without draft compensation. I doubt any team will submit an offer sheet, knowing Indianapolis will match it. Why do all the negotiating for Indianapolis? Alec Pierce is the big winner here.

Kenneth Walker (RB) - No Tag. Seattle, following their usual roster-building style, will not use a franchise tag on the reigning Super Bowl MVP. Walker’s market should be robust and will provide a critical baseline for Breece Hall’s camp. Watch out for the NFC East to compete for Walker’s services in 2026.

Trey Henderickson (Edge) - No Tag. For the better part of a month, the consensus around the league was that Cincinnati would use a franchise tag placeholder for Hendrickson to secure a trade that would return significant draft assets. If you know me well, I believe that is against the spirit of the CBA, but this has been done in the past. Cincinnati opted to forgo the tag. Hendrickson will see the open market with the potential to score one more big payday. This was a surprise to say the least.

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New Contracts:

Javonte Williams (RB) - 3 years/$24.0 million/$16.0 million guaranteed. This contract set a clear barometer for the floor for the lower 1st/2nd tier runningback free agent group. The value is appropriate, the structure follows the Dallas methodology, and Williams secured $16 million guaranteed at signing. What surprised most was Dallas getting this deal done now. Dallas, historically, has dragged out contract negotiations well beyond what is expected. This signing was a welcome surprise for all sides.

Tytus Howard (OL) - 3 years/$63.0 million/$?? million guaranteed. The details are scant with the Howard extension in Cleveland. This came on the heels of being traded from the Houston Texans to the Cleveland Browns (more on this below). Cleveland clearly values Howard as an offensive tackle.

Trades:

David Montgomery (RB) - The Houston Texans sent draft pick 4.128, a 2027 7th round pick, and fourth-year offensive lineman Juice Scruggs to the Detroit Lions for veteran runningback David Montgomery. The bruiser back has two years remaining on his current contract, valued at $15.0 million, with $6.0 million due in 2026. It remains to be seen if Houston will complete a contract renegotiation with Montgomery (similar to Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon). Houston likely got a taste of the asking price for Kenneth Walker and Travis Etienne, prompting a shift in focus to David Montgomery, who reportedly was ready to depart Detroit.

Tytus Howard (OL) - The Houston Texans traded Howard to the Cleveland Browns for 5.140. Howard and Cleveland negotiated a contract extension simultaneously with the trade. From Houston’s perspective, this is clear evidence that the team did not share the same valuation for Howard. Houston did not want to complete another restructure, pushing more money forward (giving Howard even more leverage in 2027). An extension was the path forward for Houston. However, with the two sides not close on the valuation, Houston pivoted to the trade with Cleveland.

Fun Stuff:

Mack Hollins (WR) - The New England Patriots rewarded veteran wide receiver with a $400,000 signing bonus to cover a missed performance incentive in the regular season. Hollins missed game time due to a non-injury-related illness. Rarely will teams offer this type of gesture.

Jimmie Ward (DB) - Ward missed the entirety of the 2025 season due to injury (and legal issues), and was placed on Reserve/Physically Unable to Perform. As per the CBA, Ward’s contract was set to toll forward to the 2026 season with the same terms. This included a $2.0 million salary guarantee. On March 2, 2026, the team released Ward. This immediately caused confusion regarding the salary guarantee. While I have been unable to obtain a definitive answer, this appears to be a matter of effective tolling timing. My suspicion is that the tolling effective date starts on the new league year, March 11th.

Restructures:

Spencer Brown (OL) - The Buffalo Bills and Spencer Brown completed a contract restructure. This included converting $13.025 million of salary and roster bonus money into a signing bonus. The restructure included an additional void year for salary cap purposes. This created $10.42 million in 2026 cap savings, pushing that money forward into future years.

Expect a bevy of contract restructures and renegotiations this week as teams work to either get cap compliant or create space for free agency spending.

Releases:

Jawaan Taylor (OL) - The Kansas City Chiefs informed Jawaan Taylor of his pending release. The transaction has not been made official as of yet. This release will save $20.0 million in cash and the same against the 2026 salary cap.

Marshon Lattimore (DB) - The Washington Commanders informed Lattimore of his pending release. The transaction has not been made official as of yet. Two years after sending multiple draft picks to New Orleans, Washington now moves on, creating $18.5 million in cap savings with $18.5 million in cash.

Tyler Biadasz (OL) - In a surprising move, Washington released veteran center Tyler Biadasz on March 3, 2026. This comes two years after signing Biadasz to a 3-year $30 million contract during the 2024 free agency period. The transaction created a minimal $2.1 million in cap savings and $8.3 million in cash savings. Biadasz will quickly find work, with an already scheduled visit with the Chicago Bears after the surprise retirement news of Drew Dalman.

Be sure you are subscribed to follow along. I will continue to bring you all the free agency news in the coming weeks.

-TC

-TC

Hey everyone, TC here. Thank you for your continued support with the Cap & Trade Newsletter. With the team winning the Super Bowl, we are now officially in the NFL offseason.

The Cleveland Browns have three veteran player contracts structured to facilitate Post-June 1 designation releases. The problem is that an NFL team can use only two designations in a league year.

The team inserted “poison pill” type salary vesting schedules into the player contracts to ensure a release is completed by a specific date. You could view this as similar to a contract void date. Both the team and the player have a specific deadline date known.

To be clear, I am using the term “poison pill” to give the team a clear date to force a contract decision. Not to be confused with the old-fashioned “poison pill” used in NFL contracts to keep another team from matching the terms.

The team has work to complete to be salary cap compliant by the start of the new league year on March 11, 2026. Overthecap currently projects the Browns to have $3.21 million in available cap space for the 2026 season.

The team will complete restructures with Deshaun Watson and Denzel Ward to create over $48 million in new cap space. This will give the league’s heaviest cash-spending organization plenty of salary-cap operating space to do virtually whatever they choose in roster building.

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Wyatt Teller (OL)

Wyatt Teller ended the 2025 season on Reserve/Injured after a calf injury. Prior to the injury, Teller was in a playtime rotation within the interior offensive line group while working through the injury before ultimately landing on reserve. Teller, who turned 31 in November, has seen his performance trend downward over the 2024 and 2025 seasons.

In the salary cap table above, Teller is listed with void years in 2026 through 2029. This was done to ensure Teller would be listed as a free agent for 2026. The contract, technically, does not have a scheduled contract void until mid-February in 2029.

The two sides completed a contract renegotiation on August 27, 2025, to structure the contract for a 2026 release with a Post-June 1 designation.

Teller’s base (P5) salaries are as follows:
2026 - $2.1 million (non-GTD)
2027 - $1.345 million (non-GTD)
2028 - $99.0 million (vesting GTD)
2029 - $1.435 million (non-GTD)

A “poison pill” type of vesting guarantee was inserted into the contract. If Teller is on the 90-man roster on the 3rd day of the 2026 league year (March 13th at 4 pm EST), then Teller’s $99.0 million salary in 2028 would become fully guaranteed.

Obviously, the Browns did not intend to allow Teller’s 2028 $99 million salary to become fully guaranteed. The team will need to release Teller by March 13th to avoid the vesting.

Two Options:

The team could use the Post-June 1 designation to divert $11.11 million forward to the 2027 league year, leaving $10.39 million on the 2026 salary cap until June 2nd, when the player cap charge would be lowered to $8.29 million.

If the team does not use the Post-June 1 designation, the Browns would incur a $19.40 million dead money charge at the time of release.

Jack Conklin (OL)

On March 12, 2025, the Browns and Conklin completed a contract renegotiation that added a 2029 void year, along with similar “poison pill” vesting guarantees for future salaries, similar to those in the Wyatt Teller contract.

Conklin’s base (P5) salaries are as follows:
2026 - $1.3 million (non-GTD)
2027 - $1.345 million (non-GTD)
2028 - $75.0 million (vesting GTD)
2029 - $1.435 million (non-GTD)

The contract language follows the same timeline as Teller, with vesting for the $75 million salary set for March 13, 2026. The team will have the same two options for Conklin:

Release Conklin between March 11th and March 13th with a Post-June 1 designation. This will set the team's initial salary cap hold at $5.561 million until June 2nd, when the dead money charge will be reduced to $4.261 million. This would push $8.151 million forward to the 2027 league year as salary cap dead money.

Release Conklin without the designation and incur a $12.412 million dead money for the 2026 league year, and $0 in 2027.

Given Conklin’s age and injury history, a player release will be the path forward for both sides.

David Njoku (TE)

David Njoku and the Browns completed a contract renegotiation on October 15, 2026, when the contract was structured just like Wyatt Teller's and Jack Conklin’s.

Njoku’s base (P5) salaries are as follows:
2026 - $1.3 million (non-GTD)
2027 - $1.345 million (non-GTD)
2028 - $75.0 million (vesting GTD)
2029 - $1.435 million (non-GTD)

Njoku’s 2028 salary is scheduled to vest to a full guarantee on March 13, 2026. With Njoku as a more viable free agent, the two sides could work towards a contract extension to keep Njoku in Cleveland for the future.

If the two sides are unable to come to an agreement, the Browns will need to release Njoku before the March 13th 4 pm EST deadline to avoid the $75 million guarantee.

If released with the Post-June 1 designation, the Browns will carry a $10.83 million salary cap charge until June 2nd, when it will be lowered to $9.53 million as dead money. This will push the remaining $7.24 million forward to the 2027 league year as dead money.

If the team opts against the designation, a release would result in the Browns incurring a $24.33 million dead-money charge for the 2026 league year salary cap.

Post-June 1 Salary Cap Treatment Explained

For additional information and context on Post-June 1 salary cap treatment, check out this episode of my NFL Salary Cap Explained series.

Flexibility

The Browns’ use of this structure gives the team salary-cap flexibility. Instead of relying on contract void dates in the offseason, the team can now decide where to deploy the Post-June 1 designation and where they can work towards a contract extension.

If all three players are released, the logical path would be to use the Post-June 1 designation for Wyatt Teller and David Njoku and complete a standard release for Jack Conklin.

Thanks for reading!

-TC

One of the biggest questions heading into the offseason for the Atlanta Falcons was how to manage the roster situation with veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins. Should the team pursue a path to move on from Cousins, or keep Cousins on the roster for the 2026 season? The two sides had to work quickly to facilitate the outcome that was ultimately achieved.

Today, I will explain how the two sides negotiated an outcome to facilitate Kirk Cousins’ release on March 11, 2026. I will also include how the contract was modified and what the salary cap consequences are for the Atlanta Falcons.

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Previous Contract

On March 14, 2024, the Atlanta Falcons and unrestricted free-agent veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins completed a 4-year contract worth $180.0 million covering the 2024 through 2027 NFL seasons. The contract included $90 million fully guaranteed with an additional $10 million in injury protection. Cousins also received a no-trade clause.

Despite drafting Michael Penix in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft, Cousins was the starting quarterback for the team. The roles would eventually exchange places for the 2025 NFL season.

The contract did include an early vesting trigger for full guarantee protection on Cousins’s 2026 roster bonus, worth $10 million. This bonus had injury protection only at signing, and vested to a full guarantee protection on March 16, 2025.

Below is the salary cap table breakdown for the Kirk Cousins contract with the Atlanta Falcons (guaranteed salaries highlighted):

Absent any contract modification, the team would have to take on $35 million in dead money charges for the 2026 league year if the team were to release Cousins during the 2026 NFL offseason. A Post-June 1 designation would create $22.5 million in salary cap savings; however, the team would have to carry Cousins’s $57.5 million player cap charge until June 1st.

This would be very prohibitive for the team, limiting their roster-building resources given the large player cap on their salary cap.

Contract Solution

Prior to the end of the 2025 regular season, the two sides negotiated a revised 3-year contract that would set up both sides for a player release in March 2026. This renegotiated contract would create immediate cap savings for the team and preserve all scheduled guaranteed cash for Cousins.

The new contract lowered Cousins’s base salary (P5) from $35.0 million down to $2.1 million. Cousins’s $10.0 million roster bonus for 2026 remained in place as the bonus has full protection from release.

The vesting schedule was rewritten upon implementation of the new contract, providing full guarantee protection for the $10.0 million bonus with a vesting date of January 6, 2026. This date is three days after the contract execution. This date was used to prevent the roster bonus from being treated as “other amounts treated as a signing bonus,” or also known as “OATSB”. This essentially prevents the roster bonus amount from being prorated like a signing bonus.

Cousins’s base salary in 2027 was increased from $35.0 million to $67.9 million. This was done to keep the total contract value the same as in the previous contract, in accordance with the contract renegotiation rules in the NFL/NFLPA Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Reference: Article 13 - Section 8 - Renegotiations and Extensions

This contract structure now sets up the team to use a Post-June-1 designation when the Kirk Cousins release is processed. The release must be completed between March 11th and March 13th. The contract includes a vesting date of March 13th, which would make the $67.9 million salary in 2027 fully guaranteed.

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Post-June 1 Designation

Post-June 1 Designation releases cannot be used until the start of the new league year, March 11th, for the 2026 league year. Teams are limited to the use of this designation twice in one year.

One critical piece of this renegotiation is that a team cannot use the Post-June 1 designation for a player whose contract was renegotiated after the end of the regular season of the prior league year. In short, the Post-June 1 designation would not have been available to the team had this contract been renegotiated in the offseason. This is why the renegotiation was completed on January 3rd, 2026, prior to the end of the regular season.

Reference: Article 13 - Section 6 (b)(ii)(1) - Valuation of Player Contracts

The amounts highlighted in green are the dead money amounts for the Atlanta Falcons. The team will carry Cousins’s salary cap number, $24.6 million, until June 2nd. On June 2nd, the team will incur a dead-money charge of $22.5 million for the 2026 league year. The remaining $12.5 million (from the signing bonus pro-ratio) will be dead money on the Falcons’ salary cap for the 2027 league year.

Kirk Cousins will still earn his guaranteed $10 million roster bonus. The roster bonus is subject to offsets under the contract language, meaning the amount owed by the Falcons will be reduced by any money Cousins earned by playing with another team in 2026.

If you want to learn more about Post-June 1 salary cap treatment, please consider watching Episode 9 of my NFL Salary Cap Explained series:

Closing Remarks

This is a textbook example of proactive cap management under the CBA, exactly the type of mechanism teams must master in today’s NFL.

This is a clean, simple method to achieve maximum savings for the team while facilitating a Post-June 1 Designation release. The team’s intentions were made clear to the player and agent, which also helped co-op this contract adjustment. Attention to the CBA rules, pro-active action, and clear communications were all on display in this renegotiation.

The NFL offseason is almost upon us. What parts are you most excited about relating to your favorite team? Let me know in the comment section below.

Hey everyone, TC here. Welcome back to the Cap & Trade Newsletter. The NFL offseason is nearly upon us, and it is already here for the Houston Texans. In today’s newsletter, I will cover areas of concern for the Houston Texans’ roster for the 2026 league year.

General Manager Nick Caserio and Head Coach Demeco Ryans will have some difficult decisions to make. For the first time in the Caserio era, the team will head into the offseason in a difficult salary cap position.

Yes… that is a negative number for effective cap space. Don’t fret, Houston fans: there’s salary-cap flexibility on the roster. The team will need to review available restructures, renegotiations, and extensions to secure the cap dollars needed to fill out a competitive roster for the 2026 season.

For the 2026 league year, I am currently using a league salary cap of $300.0 million. This will be updated as more information becomes available in late February. I am projecting the team to rollover $4,000,082 from 2025 to 2026 and a positive annual adjustment of $4,966,659. This creates an adjusted team salary cap of $308,966,741. Official rollover and adjustment amounts will be known in the coming weeks, leading up to March 11, 2026.

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Before any of that can happen, the team will need to find solutions to the following questions/tasks (not in any particular order). Here are 10 questions/issues the team has to answer to create a path towards a successful offseason.

1. Will Anderson Jr. will become the highest-paid defensive player in the league at some point this offseason. The team moved quickly with Derek Stingley last year. The numbers are easy. Figuring out the structure is the main task on this massive extension. Will Nick Caserio stick to the usual 3-year template? Or will he deploy a new contract structure that utilizes void years and/or option years?

2. What to do with Joe Mixon for 2026? All current signs point towards a release in the coming weeks. The team opted to pay Mixon his full $7.0 million base salary for the 2025 season, despite having no obligation while he remained on Reserve/Non-Football Injury. A release would generate $7.12m in cap savings and save $8.5 million in cash.

3. What to do with Jimmie Ward for 2026? Ward finished the season on Reserve/Physically Unable to Perform. This will cause his contract to toll forward to the 2026 league year. Ward’s $2.0 million salary protection will also move forward with the contract. The cap savings are a net zero outcome on a release, while saving $1.25 million in cash.

4. How to manage Tytus Howard’s salary cap figure for 2026? After completing contract restructures in 2024 and 2025, Howard’s salary cap charge for 2026 is at an untenable $27.91 million. The options are: complete another restructure, complete a contract extension or renegotiation, or release Howard outright. Howard has emerged as a leader in the offensive line room. While subject to multiple position changes during the season, Howard is a critical piece to the offensive line. An extension or renegotiation would make the most sense here; both would generate substantial salary cap savings.

5. Determine how to manage the interior defensive line position group. The team was proactive in extending standout defensive tackle Tommy Togiai. Now the team has decisions to make with defensive tackles Sheldon Rankins, Denico Autry, and Tim Settle. All three players are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents on March 11, 2026. Re-signing more than one player seems unlikely. I would place Rankins as the leader in the clubhouse for returning for the 2026 season on a new contract.

6. The roster is flush with restructuring candidates that will generate substantial cap savings in 2026 while pushing more cap dollars into the future. Houston has upwards of $40 million in available cap savings with contract restructures with defensive end Danielle Hunter, wide receiver Nico Collins, cornerback Derek Stingley, and defensive back Jalen Pitre. How much will Caserio dip into the restructure jar, which he has consistently used in the past, remains to be seen.

7. Additional restructure candidates could include linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair and tight end Dalton Schultz. However, both players are in the final year of their respective contracts and could be seeking contract extensions, including new bonuses, instead of a basic restructure.

8. Determine the market valuation for offensive guard Ed Ingram and decide if Ingram should be re-signed for the future or not. Ingram found success in Houston, working in a power/gap type scheme under offensive line coach Cole Popovich. Houston will need to consider the scheme nature of Ingram’s success within the market valuation.

9. Continuing with the offensive line, could the team look at bringing back veteran offensive tackle Trent Brown? Brown is 32 years old and played just 7 games in 2025. The run offensive line performed above average when Brown was in at right tackle. The cost to re-sign should be relatively low given Brown’s age and injury history.

10. Last but not least, quarterback C.J. Stroud. Barring some sort of below top-of-market contract, Houston should consider sitting tight on any contract extension with Stroud. The team will likely exercise the 5th-year option for Stroud (worth $26.53 million) and reconvene after the 2026 season. Currently, there is zero doubt in my mind that Stroud is QB1 in Houston for the 2026 season. However, the team needs to find new ways to challenge Stroud in 2026. Perhaps a new quarterback coach and even a new veteran offensive coordinator could bring Stroud back to the fold with a stronger coaching approach. Stroud needs emotional management to rein him in. His highs are too high, and his lows are too low. The two sides now have 2 years (worth $32.22 million) to determine a direction for the offense. Stroud will need a successful 2026 to prove he deserves a top-tier quarterback contract.

These are the first set of questions the Houston Texans will need to answer heading into free agency, which opens March 11, 2026. This is just one piece of the offseason puzzle. Other items on the checklist include determining the true needs of the roster and developing the 2026 cash budget.

I will have continuous offseason content not only for the Houston Texans but for the league-wide here on Cap & Trade and over on the Cap & Trade YouTube Channel. Follow along for what is to be another interesting offseason for the Houston Texans and across the league.

-TC

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• New Money APY

• Paper Value APY

• APY as a Percentage of the Salary Cap

• Guarantee Structure

• Cash Flows

All very important, in their own way, that will help you determine how strong an NFL player's contract is.

Thanks for watching!

-TC

In today’s Cap & Trade Newsletter, I break down the events surrounding this complicated transaction. If you are new here, do not forget to click on the red button below to get your free subscription to this newsletter. If you enjoy my work, you can upgrade to a paid version to help support my work in the future.

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Before I get into what happened between the Saints, Cooks, and the NFL management council, we need to cover the original contract details.

On March 24, 2025, the 31-year-old wide receiver Brandin Cooks agreed with the New Orleans Saints on a two-year contract worth $13.0 million with $7.75 million fully guaranteed. The contract included an additional $5.0 million available through performance and playtime incentives for Cooks.

The guarantees included a $4.8 million signing bonus, a full guaranteed salary in 2025, and a partial guaranteed salary in 2026. The pieces add up to the $7.75 million full guarantee.

Fast forward to October 26, 2025, when multiple reports surfaced that the New Orleans were attempting to trade Brandin Cooks in the days leading up to the trade deadline.

The Saints ultimately were unable to find a trade partner. An offline theory was simultaneously circulating that Cooks was hoping to be traded to a playoff contender. This demand would have weakened the Saints’ negotiating position, despite the team’s already limited leverage.

On November 19, 2025, the two sides (Cooks and the Saints) reportedly agreed to part ways.

The context in Ian’s post of “The two sides agreed on this…” essentially confirmed that a new contract was agreed upon.

For my work, the details of revised contracts generally follow 3-4 days after the transaction has been completed.

Salary Cap Ramifications

If the two sides had not agreed to a contract revision, below is a breakdown of the dead money charges for the Saints:

The areas in yellow are the amounts that would apply as dead money for the 2025 league year, and the blue amounts would apply as dead money for the 2026 league year. Reminder: even though we are past June 1 in the league year, future guaranteed salaries accelerate into the current league year.

The Saints’ releasing Cooks would have caused an adverse salary cap effect for the 2025 league year. Increasing Cooks’ salary cap charge from $3,154,118 to $4,844,118.

The Saints were equipped to handle this, but such a consequence was not something the team planned for. Khai Harley is one of my favorite salary-cap gurus among the 32 NFL teams. If there was anyone who could find a path out of this…it was Khai.

Revised Contract Agreement

To facilitate Cooks’s release, the two sides agreed to a revised contract. The new contract adjusted the 2026 salary guarantee by creating a new vesting date.

Instead of a $1.69 million guarantee in 2026, the amount was increased to $5.94 million. However, the full guarantee protection was removed, and the team installed a vesting date of November 21. For context, this contract was signed and submitted to the league on November 19, 2025.

This revised contract would lower the Saints’ dead money charge for 2025, while placing the guarantee burden on another team should another team choose to claim Cooks on waivers. The dead money issue would allow New Orleans to avoid any acceleration of the 2026 guaranteed salary, resulting in a zero-sum $3.154 million dead-money charge for 2025. The net cost would only be the replacement player cost.

If Cooks were released on November 20, the claiming window would be November 21. One problem: the transaction was not on the league wire for November 20, 2025.

NFL Management Council Steps In

The league contract team reviewed this contract and determined it was not acceptable. The revised vesting date was classified as a “poison pill”. An effort by the two sides to avoid a potential claim during waivers, allowing Cooks a clean path towards street free agency.

Since the league calendar has passed the trade deadline, ALL PLAYERS are subject to waivers, not just non-vested players. Meaning, one of the 31 other NFL teams could claim the Cooks’ contract.

The Saints injected a 48-hour vesting date on $5.94 million 2026 guarantee, meaning any team that were to claim Cooks on waivers would inherit this large guarantee. For a player who just turned 32, it is unlikely any team would be willing to accept such a guarantee. A clean path to free agency is precisely what the two sides wanted.

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Ultimately, the two sides would have to renegotiate back to the original contract terms (at the league office's direction) and proceed with the player's release. On November 22, 2025, Cooks was officially released by the New Orleans Saints. Cooks was subject to waivers and then cleared waivers on November 23, 2025.

This was a clever attempt by the New Orleans Saints. The team has a history of attempting to use every available path provided by the Collective Bargaining Agreement. The league office disagreed with the revised contract and shut down any attempts to shift a guarantee forward for the purpose of avoiding waiver claims.

Thanks for reading and your continued support!

-TC

Here are ten players who are on pace to create a market for a valuable contract in 2026. These players are currently “out-performing” their present contract values.

Hey everyone, TC here. Thanks for being here. I really appreciate your continued support.

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Daniel Jones - QB - Indianapolis Colts

The Indianapolis Colts appear to be all-in on quarterback Daniel Jones. After General Manager Chris Ballard traded away two future first-round picks for defensive back Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, this shifted the leverage back to Jones’s side.

Through 10 weeks of the 2025 season, Jones continues to operate as a Top-10 quarterback, referencing Ben Baldwin’s EPA+CPOE composite data.

The quarterback market (below the top tier) has recently redeveloped, providing both Jones and the Indianapolis Colts with solid information to work from. Comparable contracts:

• Geno Smith (2025) - $37.5 million APY / $66.5 million guaranteed

• Sam Darnold (2025) - $33.5 million APY / $55.0 million guaranteed

• Baker Mayfield (2024) - $33.3 million APY / $50.0 million guaranteed

George Pickens - WR - Dallas Cowboys

George Pickens is having a revival year in Dallas, working with quarterback Dak Prescott. Through 9 games, Pickens has 764 yards receiving (4th highest) on 49 receptions with six receiving touchdowns. Pickens has become Prescott’s go-to receiver.

Referencing the visual above, Pickens has the highest percentage of scoring a touchdown or obtaining a first down per play, among wide receivers with 40 or more targets. Pickens is playing on the Level 2 Proven Performance Escalator, worth $3.656 million after being traded to the Cowboys. Pickens will turn 25 in March 2026.

I would expect Dallas to strongly consider using the franchise tag on Pickens in 2026, which is worth an estimated $28.046 million. Comparable contracts:

• Tee Higgins (2025) - $28.75 million APY / $40.9 million guaranteed

• Jaylen Waddle (2024) - $28.25 million APY / $76.0 million guaranteed

• Jameson Williams (2025) - $26.66 million APY / $66.13 million guaranteed

• DeVonta Smith (2024) - $25.0 million APY / $69.99 million guaranteed

A decision by the Cowboys’ front office will need to be made by March 3, 2026, which is the franchise tag deadline for the 2026 league year.

Josh Jobe - CB - Seattle Seahawks

From undrafted in 2022 with the Eagles to starting cornerback in 2025 with the Seahawks, Josh Jobe’s career path has turned quickly under second-year head coach Mike McDonald.

Jobe has one interception so far this year, allowing just a 67.6 passer rating when targeted. Jobe really excels in the run defense and has been used as a blitzing defensive back recently.

Josh Jobe is currently playing on a one-year contract worth $2.0 million with an additional $500,000 available through playtime incentives, which he is on pace to earn.

Jobe’s performance does not place him among the top-tier cornerbacks, and his undrafted status will hamper his market a bit. Teams will need to determine whether his performance is heavily scheme-specific. Jobe’s market could have a wide variance. Comparable contracts:

• D.J. Reed (2025) - $16.0 million APY / $32.0 million guaranteed

• Zyon McCollum (2025) - $16.0 million APY / $35.41 million guaranteed

• Marcus Jones (2025) - $12.0 million APY / $22.0 million guaranteed

• Taron Johnson (2024) - $10.25 million APY / $19.0 million guaranteed

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Jaylen Watson - CB - Kansas City Chiefs

The former 7th-round draft pick out of Washington State has done what every team asks of its players…progressively improve every year. Watson, who just turned 27, has developed into a quality and dependable cornerback with the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs could have a hampered salary cap situation in 2026. The team is under pressure to sign star cornerback Trent McDuffie. This, along with other factors, could create an easy path to free agency for Watson. Cornerback is a premier position with a premier market.

Watson has allowed a low 15.4 snaps per reception allowed, ranked 11th among qualifying cornerbacks. He eliminates routes with a 5th-best 9.6 snaps per target allowed. If Watson can finish the 2025 season strong with Kansas City, he should see a strong market. Comparable contracts:

• L’Jarius Sneed (2024) - $19.1 million APY / $55.0 million guaranteed

• Paulson Adebo (2025) - $18.0 million APY / $38.5 million guaranteed

• Byron Murphy (2025) - $18.0 million APY / $34.78 million guaranteed

• Christian Benford (2025) - $17.25 million APY / $40.8 million guaranteed

Jamel Dean - CB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

At the end of training camp, Jamel Dean agreed to a massive pay cut with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Dean was scheduled to earn $13.0 million for the 2025 league year, but decided to slash that to a $5.0 million base with an additional $2.0 million available through performance incentives.

Dean has since put together an exceptional season through 10 weeks. Accumulating three interceptions (currently tied for the lead amongst cornerbacks) and one defensive touchdown. Dean has been a shutdown cornerback, allowing a league-leading 29.7 QB rating when targeted.

The concern for some teams is Dean’s age, turning 29 in October. Additionally, in Tampa Bay’s system, Dean works primarily on one side of the field. Below is a heatmap from TruMedia showing Dean’s defensive alignment.

Historically, Dean has been a solid performer at cornerback since his rookie season in 2019. How Dean fits schematically in other systems will be the central question in March 2026. Comparable contracts:

• Charvarius Ward (2025) - $18.0 million APY / $34.98 million guaranteed

• Carlton Davis (2025) - $18.0 million APY / $34.5 million guaranteed

• L’Jarius Sneed (2024) - $19.1 million APY / $55.0 million guaranteed

Devin Lloyd - LB - Jacksonville Jaguars

Devin Lloyd is currently playing on the final year of his 4-year rookie contract. The Jacksonville Jaguars declined Lloyd’s 5th year option. The decision was questionable at the time and is starting to look better for Lloyd instead of the Jaguars. The 5th-year option was projected to be approximately $14.8 million for the 2026 season.

Lloyd has become a multi-tool linebacker, recording 14 quarterback pressures and four interceptions. One area of concern for teams will be Lloyd’s missed-tackle rate, currently 18.2%, which ranks in the top 10 among qualifying linebackers. The off-ball linebacker market is highly variable, making it difficult to narrow down a comparable group. Robert Spillane’s ($11.0 m APY) free agent valuation in 2025 will help vault Lloyd upward. I am inclined to believe Lloyd’s valuation will come in at the lower end of the below compareables. Comparable contracts:

• Dre Greenlaw (2025) - $10.5 million APY / $13.5 million guaranteed

• Azeez Al-Shaair (2024) - $11.33 million APY / $21.5 million guaranteed

• Patrick Queen (2024) - $13.66 million APY / $20.51 million guaranteed

Ed Ingram - G - Houston Texans

The Houston Texans acquired Ed Ingram via trade from the Minnesota Vikings in the 2025 offseason. Ingram was not finding success in Minnesota's zone-type scheme. Ingram has quickly found a successful home in Houston, working within Nick Caley’s power gap scheme.

Through 10 weeks, Ingram has posted a 98.0 pass block efficiency rating (per PFF) along with Top 10 (among guards) run blocking characteristics. In the video below, Ingram is at the RG spot, working a double-team while working for extra work.

By all reports, Houston has been pleased with Ingram’s work during the 2025 season. I expect Houston to work hard to retain Ingram on a longer-term contract in the offseason. Houston will face competition for Ingram’s services amid a shortage of available offensive linemen in free agency. The offensive line signings during the 2025 offseason will help bolster Ingram’s market value. Comparable contracts:

• Jonah Jackson (2025) - $14.83 million APY / $24.5 million guaranteed

• Will Fries (2025) - $17.54 million APY / $34.0 million guaranteed

• Aaron Banks (2025) - $19.25 million APY / $19.25 million guaranteed (GB special)

I wrote about Ed Ingram in October 2025, which will provide more detail and context for Houston’s upcoming decision:

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Romeo Doubs - WR - Green Bay Packers

The 4th-round pick out of Nevada has the prototypical wide receiver build and the talent to back it up. Doubs has become the WR 1 in Green Bay in his 4th year in the league. Doubs primarily works on the boundary, but 17% of his routes come from the slot. Doubs’s QB rating when targeted is 103.7. As a receiver, Doubs has a 12.2% success rate when given the ball, ranking him in the Top 20 among qualified wide receivers.

Green Bay has a history of letting wide receivers walk in free agency, then circling back to the draft early on day 2 to replenish the position group. Comparable contracts:

• Michael Pittman (2024) - $23.33 million APY / $41.0 million guaranteed

• Nico Collins (2024) - $24.25 million APY / $32.17 million guaranteed

• DeVonta Smith (2025) - $25.0 million APY / $33.99 million guaranteed

Quentin Lake - S - Los Angeles Rams

Quentin Lake was drafted in the 6th round by the Los Angeles Rams and started on the special teams group. By the 2024 season, Lake was a full-time starting safety for the Rams. Lake does not come off the field, currently with 100% snap coverage through 10 weeks of the 2025 season. Lake has size (6’1 - 196lb) with 4.59 coverage speed.

For the 2025 season, the Rams have placed Lake into the slot cornerback role with the ability to shift to safety when three linebackers are on the field. Lake has 10 passes defended through 10 weeks to go along with his seven quarterback pressures.

Los Angeles will be hard-pressed to retain Lake. What position group the rest of the league views Lake to play in will be the question. Comparable contracts are complex due to the variability in positions. Lake could have a surprisingly strong market. Comparable contracts:

• Jalen Pitre (2025) - $13.0 million APY / $20.66 million guaranteed

• Cam Bynum (2025) - $15.0 million APY / $26.0 million guaranteed

• Jevon Hollard (2025) - $15.1 million APY / $27.4 million guaranteed

• Trevon Moehrig (2025) - $17.0 million APY / $34.5 million guaranteed

Tyler Linderbaum - C - Baltimore Ravens

Last but not least, a player that will likely reset the Center market in 2026. Tyler Linderbaum was the 25th overall draft pick in the 2022 NFL draft by the Baltimore Ravens. Two Pro Bowls later, the Ravens declined Linderbaum’s 5th year option. The option number was slated to be worth $23.4 million, fully guaranteed.

The $23.4 million salary number is well above the highest-paid center contract in terms of APY, held by Creed Humphrey at $18.0 million. Baltimore did not want to allow the option amount to set the floor for the APY in a new contract extension.

Baltimore will try to re-sign Linderbaum, despite zero success thus far, with the typical Baltimore model. This model will have a slightly lower overall APY but will include a very strong y1 and y2 cash flow to the player.

Linderbaum will have a robust market in the 2026 offseason. Baltimore could look to work a “tag and trade” to recoup immediate draft capital instead of waiting for a 2027 compensatory reward. Contract comparables:

None - Expect a market reset, in excess of $21 million APY and $40 million guaranteed.

Thanks for reading! I look forward to seeing you next time.

-TC

The 2025 NFL trade deadline came and went with a massive set of fireworks.

Historically, the NFL trade deadline has been quiet, with just a few moves that amount to little fanfare. Over the past few years, with the injection of younger, more open-minded general managers at the helm, the league has seen a substantial increase not only in the number of trades but also in their severity.

In today’s Cap & Trade Newsletter, I will cover the past week’s worth of NFL player trades, the compensation exchanged, and quick thoughts.

October 27, 2025

The Los Angeles Rams acquire defensive back Roger McCreary from the Tennessee Titans on a day-three pick swap.

Los Angeles received: 2026 6th Round Conditional (Los Angeles owned) & Roger McCreary.

Tennessee received: 2026 5th Round Conditional (Tennessee owned).

McCreary, a former 2nd round draft pick, has not quite lived up to his potential in the league. The move to the Los Angeles Rams should provide McCreary a solid environment to find his way before becoming an unrestricted free agent in March of 2026.

October 29, 2025

The San Francisco 49ers acquire edge rusher Keion White from the New England Patriots on a day-three pick swap.

San Francisco received: 2026 7th Round Conditional (New England) & Keion White.

New England received: 2026 6th Round Conditional (Minnesota).

Keion White, a former 2nd round draft pick, saw his playing time drop dramatically (to 28%) under head coach Mike Vrabel. All the signs pointed to White needing a new landing spot. San Francisco brings in White, who is on a rookie contract, through the 2026 season.

October 30, 2025

The Pittsburgh Steelers acquire defensive back Kyle Dugger from the New England Patriots on a day-three pick swap.

Pittsburgh received: 2026 7th Round Conditional (New Orleans) & Kyle Dugger.

New England received: 2026 6th Round (Pittsburgh).

Dugger is in the second year of his four-year $58 million contract. Things turned sour quickly over the summer between Dugger and the New England organization. The team would encounter difficulty moving Dugger due to the nature of the contract that included a fully guaranteed $9.75 million salary for the 2025 season. To facilitate the trade, New England completed a $4.77 million salary-to-signing bonus conversion. New England paid $9.76 million, leaving Pittsburgh with a minimum salary outlay of $650,000 for the final 9 weeks of the season. Dugger also agreed to void out the 2026 and 2027 contract years, making him an unrestricted free agent in March 2026.

The Philadelphia Eagles and New York Jets completed a player for player trade that included a day-three pick swap.

Philadelphia received: 2027 7th Round Conditional (Minnesota) & defensive back Michael Carter II.

New York received: 2027 6th Round Conditional (Philadelphia) & wide receiver John Metchie.

The trade equates to both sides acquiring player depth for roster purposes. This is the second time John Metchie has been traded in 2025.

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November 3, 2025

The Philadelphia Eagles acquire defensive back Jaire Alexander and a future day 3 pick from the Baltimore Ravens for a day three pick.

Philadelphia received: 2027 7th Round (Baltimore) & defensive back Jaire Alexander.

Baltimore received: 2026 6th Round (Philadelphia).

Philadelphia continued to backfill its secondary depth with the acquisition of the former first-round pick Jaire Alexander. This marks the second time Alexander has been traded in 2025.

November 4, 2025 - Trade Deadline

What will be known as one of the most explosive trade deadline days in NFL history was filled with nine trades.

The Baltimore Ravens acquire defensive tackle Dre’Mont Jones from the Tennessee Titans for a conditional early day 3 pick.

Baltimore received: Defensive tackle Dre’Mont Jones.

Tennessee received: 2026 5th Conditional (New York Jets).

The trade condition was leaked by Albert Breer, who noted that the draft compensation would increase to a 4th-round pick if Jones recorded two sacks and the Baltimore Ravens made the playoffs. Baltimore’s struggling defense brings in much-needed veteran talent along the front line. Jones already has 4.5 sacks on the season. Tennessee sheds some cash while acquiring draft capital to continue its rebuild.

The Dallas Cowboys acquire linebacker Logan Wilson from the Cincinnati Bengals.

Dallas received: Linebacker Logan Wilson.

Cincinnati received: 2026 7th Round (New York Giants).

Logan Wilson has seen his starting position disappear as he works under a new defensive scheme. Cincinnati will shed $2.7 million in cash for the 2025 season, and the 2026 and 2027 contract years by sending Wilson to Dallas.

The Philadelphia Eagles acquire edge rusher Jaelan Phillips from the Miami Dolphins for a day two draft pick.

Philadelphia received: edge rusher Jaelen Phillips.

Miami received: 2026 3rd Round (Philadelphia).

To facilitate the trade, Miami took on an additional $5.12 million in salary for the 2025 season, leaving the Eagles with a low $1.5 million salary responsibility. Miami was willing to take on the additional salary to increase the draft compensation to a 3rd round pick. The Eagles get an exceptional pass rusher despite Phillips’s injury history.

The Jacksonville Jaguars acquire veteran wide receiver Jakoki Meyers from the Las Vegas Raiders for two day-three picks.

Jacksonville received: Jakoki Meyers.

Las Vegas received: 2026 4th Round Conditional (Jacksonville) & 2026 6th Round (New York Jets).

Jacksonville recently lost its first-round draft pick, Travis Hunter, to injury and was looking to backfill the receiver room. Jakobi Meyers had previously requested a trade out of Las Vegas. This created a natural match for the two sides to complete the trade. Meyers is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in March 2026.

The Seattle Seahawks acquire speedy wide receiver Rashid Shaheed from the New Orleans Saints for two early day-three picks.

Seattle received: Wide receiver Rashid Shaheed.

New Orleans received: 2026 4th Round (Seattle) & 2026 5th Round (Seattle).

Seattle had their eyes on Jaylin Waddle out of Miami, but did not come to an agreement and then shifted their sights to Shaheed. New Orleans is working their way out of salary cap purgatory. With just one win on the season, they opted to move Shaheed.

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The Indianapolis Colts acquire star defensive back Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner from the New York Jets.

Indianapolis received: Defensive backAhmad “Sauce” Gardner.

New York received: 2026 1st Round (New York), 2027 1st Round (New York), and Wide receiver Adonai Mitchell.

The biggest trade deadline deals in the history of the NFL. Chris Ballard, GM of the Indianapolis Colts, riding the high wave of his 7-2 Colts, fortified the secondary with the acquisition of Gardner. The compensation is very high and could be considered an overpayment. Once you factor in that the contract was already in place with the Jets and that the Jets having already paid Gardner’s signing bonus, this gives the Colts a favorable contract. Additionally, the contract includes two options that will provide Ballard with maximum flexibility in salary cap management in future years.

The Chicago Bears acquire edge rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka from the Cleveland Browns for a late day-three pick swap.

Chicago received: 2026 7th Round (Philadelphia) & edge rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka.

Cleveland received: 2026 6th Round (Chicago).

The Dallas Cowboys complete a second trade on a blockbuster move to acquire former All-Pro defensive tackle Quinnen Williams from the New York Jets.

Dallas received: Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams.

New York received: Defensive tackle Mazi Smith, 2026 2nd Round, and 2027 1st Round (Conditional).

Dallas continues their defensive makeover after trading away Micah Parsons earlier in the trading period. The Jets continue their asset sale to acquire additional draft-pick firepower to fuel their 2026 rebuild. The 2027 1st round conditional pick will be either the Cowboys’ or Green Bay Packers’ draft pick, whichever has more value. The trade will shift contract leverage in Quinnen Williams’ favor. I would expect Williams to seek out a new contract in 2026.

The Los Angeles Chargers acquire offensive tackle Trevor Penning from the New Orleans Saints.

Los Angeles received: Offensive Tackle Trevor Penning.

New Orleans received: 2027 6th Round (Los Angeles).

Los Angeles has endured an endless cycle of injuries on its offensive line. Bringing in Penning will alleviate some of the depth issues to give Justin Herbert the protection needed. Penning, a former 1st round pick, is in the final year of his rookie contract and is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in March 2026.

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League Trade History

In the 2025 league year, the 32 NFL teams completed 97 trades from March 13th to November 4th. This includes draft pick trades and player trades.

Past League Trade History:

2025 - 97 trades

2024 - 86 trades

2023 - 91 trades

2022 - 94 trades

2021 - 92 trades

Here’s to an awesome NFL trade deadline and to more just like this in the future.

Thanks for reading,

-TC

Welcome to another edition of the Cap & Trade Newsletter. Thanks for being here!

As the NFL season reaches the mid-point of the regular season, I want to look at the best and worst free agent signings based on the first half of the season performance.

For this exercise, I queried data from Overthecap.com for two values: contract value in terms of Average Per Year (APY) and Player Valuation. If you are unfamiliar with the OTC Player Valuation tool, you can read about it here. The valuation amount is expressed in APY, which makes for an easy delta comparison.

I compared the delta between the player APY and the Player Valuation to calculate the “value” in terms of APY, generated by each player’s performance (as measured by the Valuation), both positive and negative.

Notes:

1. A player with a negative delta does not necessarily mean that the player is not performing well for the season. This is only a singular data point compared to the player’s contract value.

2. I filtered out players to pull only free agents who signed with a new team during the offseason (March through June).

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Positive Free Agent Value

Quarterback - Daniel Jones - Indianapolis

Contract APY $14.0m / Valuation $40.19m / Surplus Value $26.19m

Daniel Jones signed a one-year contract with the Indianapolis Colts after finishing the 2024 season with the Minnesota Vikings. Jones targeted situations with the best path to playing time. Signing with Indianapolis was an excellent decision after third-year player Anthony Richardson was injured during training camp, ultimately losing the starting job to Jones.

Jones has thrived in Head Coach (and play caller) Shane Steichen’s system with the Colts, becoming one of the most efficient offenses in the league. Jones is second among quarterbacks in total EPA gained (62.9) on dropbacks this season.

The Colts lead the league with 33.1 points scored per game, and are the highest-ranked based on EPA/Play1.

This has been a home run signing by General Manager Chris Ballard, and a potential job-saving move.

Defensive Back - Isaiah Rodgers - Minnesota

Contract APY $5.52m / Valuation $26.28m / Surplus Value $20.76m

Isaiah Rodgers signed a two-year contract with the Minnesota Vikings. Prior to the 2025 season, Rodgers was a spot starter/playing time as a defensive back with the Philadelphia Eagles, earning considerable praise for his work in Vic Fangio’s system despite playing only 31% of the defensive snaps.

Rodgers quickly made a name for himself in Minnesota, earning a perfect PFF player grade in week 3 against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Rodgers has excelled in coverage, boasting a QB Rating of 79.6 (when targeted), a 7.2% CPOE2, and generating a total EPA of -11.8 in coverage. Rodgers has also accumulated 7 Run Stops3.

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Defensive Back - Jourdan Lewis - Jacksonville

Contract APY $10.0m / Valuation $25.67m / Surplus Value $15.67m

After 8 seasons in Dallas, Jourdan Lewis found a new home with the Jacksonville Jaguars, signing a 3-year contract worth $30.0m ($10.0m APY). Lewis has worked primarily as a slot defender, one of the most challenging positions on the defensive side of the field.

In coverage, Lewis has allowed just 8.6 receptions per coverage snap (11th best as a slot defender) while remaining busy in run defense with a 4.1 run stop percentage (7th best among CBs).

Edge - Harold Landry - New England

Contract APY $14.50m / Valuation $28.38m / Surplus Value $13.88m

Harold Landry signed a 3-year contract worth $43.5m ($14.5m APY) with the New England Patriots during the offseason. By market standards, that is the 25th-highest-paid edge rusher contract.

Under veteran head coach Mike Vrabel (who helped draft Landry in Tennessee), Landry has outplayed his contract value. Landry has already amassed five quarterback sacks with an overall 11.2% pressure rate.

In the run game, Landry sets a hard edge for his linebackers to execute the run stops. New England has the 4th-best run defense (in terms of EPA allowed) in the league.

Linebacker - Nate Landman - Los Angeles Rams

Contract APY $1.10m / Valuation $11.76m / Surplus Value $10.66m

Landman is a classic Les Snead signing. Landman spent his first three seasons in Atlanta earning his way onto the roster as an undrafted free agent in 2022. Atlanta opted not to tender him as a restricted free agent. The market was not kind to Landman, who signed a one-year contract for the minimum salary level, including a small $75,000 guarantee.

Landman flashed in training camp and was voted as a team captain by his playing peers at the start of the season. Landman wears the green dot on the defensive side of the field in Los Angeles.

Sean McVay on Landman as a captain and owner of the green dot:

“I think it says a lot about him,” he said. “I think he has really high emotional intelligence in terms of coming in, to be able to ask questions, to really be able to get familiar with his teammates and then being able to pick and choose his spots to be able to lead. I think that position in general, similar to the quarterback and the center position on offense, requires a level of communication. He’s wearing the green dot for us.

Landman excels in run game defense with flawless execution, ranking as one of the most technical tacklers in the league (4th best, with a 3.1% missed tackle rate) and accumulating -13.0 total EPA in run defense. Landman can hold his own in coverage, holding a -2.7% CPOE when targeted.

Landman is positioning himself for a lucrative contract in 2026.

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Negative Free Agent Value

Offensive Guard - Aaron Banks - Green Bay

Contract APY $19.25m / Valuation $0.65m / Negative Value ($18.60)m

During the peak of free agency, Aaron Banks signed a 4-year $77.0m contract with the Green Bay Packers. It is worth noting that the contract is a typical Green Bay structure with no guarantees beyond the first year of the contract.

Up to this point, Banks’s performance has not met the expected outcome. In 4 games of work, Banks has yielded 6 quarterback pressures, including 1 sack. Green Bay’s rushing performance, when filtered down to rushes to the “inside left”, has the team ranked 22nd with 3.4 yards per carry.

It is worth noting that Banks is dealing with a lingering back issue. From head coach Matt LaFleur:

“I think backs are always one of those things that are always a problem if they flare up on you. You never quite know. But I feel pretty good about where we are with those guys right now. Both those guys looked great yesterday.”

Green Bay will expect a performance increase for the second half of the season.

Offensive Tackle - Dan Moore - Tennessee

Contract APY $20.50m / Valuation $7.32m / Negative Value ($13.18)m

The contract signed between the Tennessee Titans and veteran tackle Dan Moore was one of the more surprising contracts of the offseason, particularly in terms of its value. Moore signed a 4-year contract worth $82.0 million with $50.0 million in guarantees.

Moore has played 100% of the snaps through 7 games in the 2025 season. However, Moore has allowed 36 quarterback pressures, including 7 sacks. Rookie quarterback Cam Ward is not helping the blocking situation. The team continues to leave Moore on an island with no help from tight ends or runningbacks.

Hopefully, the team will see improvement from Moore as the season progresses, but based on Moore’s previous seasons with Pittsburgh, I would not expect a significant change. The Titans are tied to the Moore contract through the 2026 season at a minimum (absent a trade).

Defensive Line - Tershawn Wharton - Carolina

Contract APY $15.02m / Valuation $2.17m / Negative Value ($12.85)m

Tershawn Wharton signed a 3-year contract worth $45.05 million with the Carolina Panthers during the offseason. Wharton’s previous two years with the Kansas City Chiefs were productive, with 52 quarterback pressures, including 9 sacks.

Through 7 games in Carolina, Wharton has been inactive for 4 of those games. Wharton’s pressure and sack rates have dropped dramatically compared to his previous seasons.

Wharton has shown flashes in the 3 games he’s played. The team has had high expectations for Wharton, and those opinions have not changed.

Head coach Dave Canales during training camp:

“I think one of the great things I love about Turk so far, what I’ve seen is he’s got constant feedback,” noted coach Dave Canales. “He’s talking to the guys that are out there when he’s not out there. When he does go, he jogs off, and he’s sharing something with coach (Todd) Wash. That kind of focus and intentionality, the guy’s been to four Super Bowls, won two. There’s a reason that that culture, he’s bringing that part of it to our team by just showing guys that all these walkthrough reps matter.”

Defensive Line - Grady Jarrett - Chicago

Contract APY $14.25m / Valuation $1.45m / Negative Value ($12.80)m

Grady Jarrett signed a 3-year contract worth $42.75 million with the Chicago Bears quickly after his release from the Atlanta Falcons. The deal came together a couple of days after his release. The inclusion of $27.25 million in total guarantees was larger than expected for the 32-year-old veteran.

Jarrett’s 2024 season was an early indicator of the performance decline that was likely to come in the 2025 season. Jarrett’s run stop performance has dropped from 5.6% to 2.7%, and his pass rush is non-existent with zero sacks and just 3 quarterback pressures.

Chicago will likely have to move Jarrett into a depth role at some point in 2026, despite his $13.0 million guaranteed salary.

Safety - Trevon Meohrig - Carolina

Contract APY $17.00m / Valuation $4.78m / Negative Value ($12.22)m

Trevon Meohrig’s name flew up the free agent leaderboards quickly in February and March after 4 quiet yet productive seasons in Las Vegas. Moehrig signed a 3-year contract worth $51.0 million with the Carolina Panthers. Many across the league felt this was an overpay.

Moehrig’s coverage performance has dropped with his new role in Carolina. When targeted in coverage, his CPOE has vaulted to 6.1% compared to -4.4% and -11.1% in the previous two seasons. One of the most significant indicators is NGS’s Hawk Rate4 with Moehrig’s Hawk Rate at 0.0% through 7 weeks of the season. In his previous two seasons, his Hawk Rate was 19.2% and 22.9%. Moehrig’s run defense has also suffered with a career-high run missed tackle rate of 17.4%.

Free agency is always a tricky situation to assess for NFL teams. The team is paying market value, and in some cases, even top of the market value, while receiving a low return on investment. After the season is over, I will review these numbers from an overall team perspective to determine which teams found the most value.

In 2023, I took a look at these values at a team perspective:

Below are the lists of both positive and negative values for the Top 30 players.

Top 30 Players sorted by Surplus Delta

Top 30 Players sorted by Negative Delta

Thanks for reading!

-TC

The Houston Texans have an interesting (in a good way) scenario developing with their offensive line room for the upcoming 2026 offseason. Yes, we are months away from the following offseason, but I wanted to bring this topic to your attention so we can monitor player performance for the remainder of the 2025 season.

In today’s Cap & Trade Newsletter, I break down each player’s performance, market outlook, and how their decisions intersect within Houston’s broader cap strategy.

There are two players to focus on: RG Ed Ingram and RT Tytus Howard. I will examine each player individually and then, at the end, tie this all together to lay out the team’s options for the future.

Note: PFF grades are referenced as data points. I am not endorsing player grades as an all-encompassing metric, but rather another data point to the entire evaluation puzzle. Sports Info Solutions data is also referenced.

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Right Guard - Ed Ingram

Ed Ingram has been one of the bright spots on the revamped offensive line 5 weeks into the season. Ingram was acquired via trade in March 2025 for a future 6th-round pick from the Minnesota Vikings. Coming from a zone-type scheme to Houston’s new power gap scheme has made Ingram the primary beneficiary. Houston was able to identify Ingram’s skill set as a player who would excel in Houston.

EVP and GM Nick Caserio on Ed Ingram through 5 weeks:

“Ed has done a pretty good job. He has played really good football. Sometimes a change of scenery is good for everybody involved in that situation. He’s played good football. He is one of the top-ranked guards in the league, something ridiculous. I’m not saying he is the best guard in the league. He has played good football.”

Yes, Caserio was indeed referencing PFF grading, but PFF grading is not a significant data point used in Houston's decision-making. The team has its own internal system for generating player value measured against the rest of the league.

Ingram has become one of the premier interior run blockers, while also maintaining above-average pass-blocking skills. Based on five weeks of game film, it is clear Ingram excels in a power gap scheme. Ingram is evidence that sometimes a player can excel in specific schemes but struggle in others.

Below are a few performance metrics from ProFootball Focus and Sports Info Solutions.

Ingram is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in March 2026. With his performance trending in the right direction, there is zero reason for Ingram to accept any extension offer from Houston.

The league may not value Ingram as someone who should be paid as a top-tier offensive guard. Free agency is an unpredictable beast. During the 2025 free agency period, teams paid upper market value for Aaron Banks ($19.25m APY), Will Fries ($17.54m), Joe Thuney ($17.5m). Robert Hunt secured a $20.0m APY during the 2024 free agency period. Letting Ingram depart in free agency on the basis of compensatory pick acquisition should not be part of the equation. Houston will offset Ingram’s contract with other free agency signings in 2026.

I need more playtime and evidence to support Ingram receiving a contract in excess of $18.0 million per year. The arrow is pointing in the right direction for Ingram to force a critical decision for Houston.

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Below are a few clips of Ingram’s work in 2025:

Right Tackle - Tytus Howard

Now shifting over to right tackle (pun intended) the Houston Texans have 7th year veteran Tytus Howard. Howard has had a tulmuteous career in Houston marred by multiple positions across the offensive line over the past 6 seasons, including one game in 2025 at right guard.

Howard is a true offensive tackle and that’s where he is at his best. His performance could be viewed as polar opposite of Ed Ingram in that Howard is a much better pass blocker than he is as a run blocker.

Tytus has also grown as one of the team leaders, not only in the offensive line room, but within the entire team lockeroom. Howard is the second longest tenured player in the organization behind kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn.

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HC DeMeco Ryans on Tytus Howard through 5 weeks:

“But there’s a lot of good that’s been going on with our offensive line. I highlight that in our team meetings, and Tytus Howard is one of the guys who’s been consistent. That’s what offensive line play is about. It’s about playing consistent. It’s about playing within yourself, not getting overextended but doing your job, down in and down out without a lot of glory, without a lot of pats on the back. It’s a very selfless position. He’s done a really great job throughout this year so far. He’s improved. He’s done a great job of anchoring the right side for us and I’m very proud of him, not only for his play, but Tytus has also grown as a leader. Seeing him become more vocal, communicating amongst the offensive linemen. That’s what I’m most proud of with Tytus, besides the play. It’s how he’s grown into that leadership role and that’s what we needed from him.”

The upcoming decision issue for Houston is how should the team manage Howard’s contract situation in 2026. Below is Howard’s salary cap table from Overthecap.

Howard’s $27.94m cap charge in 2026 is less than favorable, accounting for over 9% of the team’s salary cap (projected). The team has a few options:

1. Complete another basic restructure by converting a portion of Howard’s base salary to a signing bonus. Creating over $12 million in cap space for 2026. However this would push over $16 million into 2027 leaving a dead money charge of nearly $20 million after the contract voids in February 2027.

2. Release Howard outright. This creates $23.7 million cap savings for 2026. However this creates a big hole at the right tackle spot. I do not believe the Texans have faith in second year tackle Blake Fisher to fill that role. This option seems like the least likely (currently).

3. Extend Howard with a 2 or 3 year contract extension. With the market explosion at the offensive tackle position, and the salary cap leverage Howard would have; all creates a difficult situation for Houston. Howard would likely be looking for in excess of $20 million per year on a new deal. Houston has two factors in their favor: Howard turning 30 years of age, and Howard’s inconsistent play over the past few years. Perhaps a 2 year contract extension (3 years in total through 2028) worth $39.0 million in new money ($19.5 million APY) with $37.5 million in total guarantees would get the deal done. This contract would also create $12.0 million in cap space for 2026. Howard was due $18.0 million in 2026, this extension would give him a $4.0 million raise for the 2026 league year in terms of cash.

Summary

Both Nick Caserio and DeMeco Ryans potentially have two difficult decisions ahead in how to handle the contracts of Ed Ingram and Tytus Howard. For once it is a good problem to have for the team.

For now, let’s continue to monitor each player’s performance the team’s evolution for the remainder of the 2025 season. After the season is over, I will circle back to this newsletter article to follow up a decision.

Let me know in the comments below how you would handle the contract situationf for each player.

Thanks for reading!

-TC

This week, I put together a video covering C.J. Stroud’s new freedom with control of the offense.

All summer, we were told by Stroud how excited he was to have the ability to check the calls at the line of scrimmage. Stroud can now complete route checks and check into a completely different play. Under the previous offensive coordinator, Bobby Slowik, this ability was absent for C.J. Stroud, as the system was designed to be built around “hot routes” or “answers” to any defensive package.

Through four games, there have been some bumps in the road as Stroud gains confidence in his ability to read defenses and put his team in the best position for success.

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In the 4th quarter, Houston scored a 24-yard touchdown with a beautiful throw from C.J. Stroud to rookie wide receiver Jayden Higgins. On this specific play, Stroud made a change to Higgins’s route based on the defense presentation by Tennessee.

Here is the video, which includes a complete breakdown with additional context from C.J. Strou and head coach Demeco Ryans.

Enjoy!

-TC

Welcome back to another edition of the Cap & Trade Newsletter. Today’s discussion is Option Bonuses!

We all know what option bonuses are in NFL player contracts; if you don’t, navigate to the Salary Cap 101 Video Series and watch Episode 10. Today, I want to dive into the concept a bit deeper to discuss the whys and how teams deploy option bonuses.

All contract data was sourced from Overthecap.com.

NFL teams have rapidly increased the use of option bonuses in player contracts. The inclusion of these option structures has led NFL teams down a path of increased salary cap control without requiring renegotiation with the player.

TLDR: NFL teams are finding new paths to maximum salary cap flexibility.

Philadelphia, San Francisco, Cleveland, Buffalo, and Baltimore have utilized option bonuses in their contracts for many years.

The way this new option bonus structure has been deployed in 2024 and 2025 has created a new trend.

The previous method of use generally included an option bonus in the 2nd year of the contract. This would act as a pre-negotiated restructure between the parties and typically would provide early cash flow for the player just 12 months after signing the initial agreement. Baltimore relies on this cash flow technique as an enticement for signing players, as does Buffalo.

Today, we are seeing teams utilize multiple team options that span the length of the contract. An additional twist is Dallas using Option Bonuses in the back end of the contract. I'll talk about that later in this newsletter.

So why do this? Why use multiple option bonuses? The main reason is salary cap flexibility.

I touched on this a bit in my Matt Stafford newsletter:

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NFL teams have developed this structure to give themselves the ability to maintain that low cap figure for the player, or choose to renounce the bonus, rather than needing to approach the player about a restructure.

Allowing that decision to remain with the team, rather than the player, further increases salary cap flexibility.

For the 2025 league year, 21 of the 32 NFL teams have at least one player contract with a team option bonus. The San Francisco 49ers lead the way with 15 player contracts.

If we look at it from the perspective of how much money teams place in their option bonuses, the Philadelphia Eagles are well above the other teams. Their dollar figure seems almost unreal when compared to the rest of the league.

Changes to Option Due Dates

Along with the inclusion of multiple options in player contracts, the option due dates have also been adjusted. Teams are routinely setting due dates late in the league year, as far back as the day before the first regular-season game. This is done for maximum salary cap flexibility.

Early Activation Schedule - Kerby Joseph (Safety)

The Detroit Lions and Kerby Joseph agreed to a four-year contract extension in April 2025. The contract extension included four (4) options covering the 2026 through 2029 league years. Every option is set with an early activation date in the league year. The first option, in 2026, is due by the 10th day of the league year. For the options in 2027 through 2029, the due date is the 5th day of the league year.

Detroit must decide whether to extend the contract by one year. Despite the early due date, Joseph's cash flow remains unchanged. The option bonus money is paid out over the course of the season in line with the base salary. The option bonus is merely an accounting adjustment for the allocation of the salary cap.

Late Activate Schedule - Nik Bonitto & DaRon Bland

I have two examples of the late activation schedule to discuss. Each contract has interesting details associated with it. Nik Bonitto (LB) with the Denver Broncos and DaRon Bland (CB) with the Dallas Cowboys.

Rich Hurtado with the Denver Broncos really outdid himself with the Bonitto contract. The contract includes seven (7) option bonuses and 52 salary escalator categories. Denver dove into the multiple option bonus structure first with offensive tackle Garrett Bolles. If rumor is true, the Los Angeles Rams took notice of that structure and applied it to Matthew Stafford’s revised two year contract signed in 2025.

Bonitto’s first and second option are due early in 2026, specifically on the 5th day of the 2026 league year. Where things take a turn is options number 3 through number 7. The third option is due by the day prior to the 1st regular season game of the 2027 season. To get even more creative, the team placed two options in 2028 and two options in 2029, all due on the day prior to the 1st regular season game of those league years.

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Essentially the team now has the flexibility to determine if the cap space if needed..yes? Activate the option. No?…decline the option and the player cap charge will increase for that league year.

Most often I would expect the team to activate the option and use that cap space as rollover for the following league year.

DaRon Bland has a new (new to Dallas) Option Bonus schedule included in his player contract. Dallas negotiated option two options in the final two years of the contract. This was done specifically for salary cap flexibility.

Dallas employs a restructure contract model. While basic restructures may not require explicit permission of the player, restructures with new void years add will trigger that requirement. The Bland contract has a $19 million option due by the day prior to the 1st regular season game in 2028, and a $21 million option in 2029 with the same schedule.

As with other examples, Bland does not receive a bonus payment up front but rather the option bonus is paid concurrently with base salary payments.

This structure allows Dallas to complete the salary conversion at their convenience, with the pre-negotiated void years, rather than approach the player for the contract adjustment.

I expect to see this occur more often across the league. The anticipated continued rise in the salary cap will provide NFL teams the insurance and confidence to push cap dollars forward into future void years.

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Teams Not Using Options

The following teams, currently, do not have player contracts that contain options as signed by their respective general managers: Houston Texans, New England Patriots, Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, Kansas City Chiefs, Las Vegas Raiders, Indianapolis Colts, Atlanta Falcons, and the New York Giants.

Could we see any of these teams start to utilize Options? I wouldn’t expect it from Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Indianapolis, or the Atlanta (call me back Chris!). I’ll keep doing what I can to push Houston into this realm.

Thanks for reading!

-TC

Every year, teams and agents work to complete the last round of contract extensions in the small window of time occurring after the last preseason game and the first regular season game.

This year was no different, with new contracts completed with players such as Micah Parsons, Terry McLaurin, Trey Henderickson, Taylor Moton, Kyle Hamilton, Daron Bland, Davis Mills, Luke Goedeke, Abe Lucas, Ted Karras, and Nik Bonitto.

For today’s newsletter, I wanted to look specifically at the Nik Bonitto situation.

Athletes First posted the announcement on social media, including the basic metrics of the contract. The full details of the contract are now available at OverTheCap.com.

Based on the new money average per year (APY), $26.5 million, this places Bonitto as the 10th highest paid “edge” player, just under Brian Burns. The term “edge” includes players who are designated as either a defensive end or linebacker, excluding off-ball linebackers.

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Another data point I compare against is the OTC Valuation at OvertheCap. Note this is from the Premium section on OTC. The valuation is not meant to be a market APY number but rather the player’s performance measured in terms of APY compared to the rest of the position group. Nik Bonitto comes in as the 15th-highest valued edge player for the 2024 season.

Given the above data, Nik Bonitto was measured as the 15th highest valued edge player for the 2024 season, and became the 10th highest paid edge player based on APY.

Sports Info Solutions - Total Points

A new (to me) data point that I want to explore using more in 2025 is the Total Points metric from Sports Info Solutions, also known as SIS. The SIS team is highly regarded in the Major League Baseball world.

For an explanation of the Total Points system, you can read all about it here: SIS Total Points Primer and SIS Total Points Update. “All of Total Points uses the Expected Points Added (EPA) framework.”

For this exercise, I downloaded the Total Points data for the edge players for the 2024 season. The metric can be split into three (3) categories: run defense, pass rush, and pass defense (coverage). Summing the data gives the Total Points output.

Edge players are primarily paid for their ability to get pressure on the opposing team’s quarterback and to stop the run. To force the offense to account for that player heavily. Edge players, generally, are not heavily relied upon in the coverage game.

Nik Bonitto is highlighted in the table above. The Points Saved in run defense are low, with better-than-average pass rush performance and upper-tier performance in coverage.

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A portion of Bonitto’s value stems from his pass rush and coverage ability. Now, Bonitto is not dropping into coverage dozens of times each game. In fact, he was charted with 69 coverage snaps in 2024.

In my preliminary use of the Total Points data, I do like this view on a “3-tool” approach to edge player performance. Defensive linemen can affect the game in multiple ways: run defense, pass rush, and coverage. Those efforts to influence gameplay can be categorized into one of these three categories.

How well does the Total Points metric align with Contract APY? Better than I expected based on the scatter plot below:

The Micah Parsons contract will be viewed as an outlier for at least two years due to the contract leverage generated from the trade to the Green Bay Packers. I decided to leave Jared Verse on the chart, specifically to highlight the value of rookie contracts. And of course, Calais Campbell is the ageless wonder.

Final Thoughts

Given the data in the above tables, I believe Bonitto’s contract value is well placed. Bonitto was scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in 2026. The edge market is usually barren in free agency. Bonitto would have garnered a larger contract on the open market.

To argue the other side, it is difficult to ask a player to forgo $70 million in guarantees presented on the table in front of you to instead put your body through another 18+ weeks of brutal gameplay, hoping you remain injury-free. In the life of the NFL, with players experiencing a short shelf life, I find zero fault in Bonitto taking this contract.

I do not yet have the details on the incentive package in the contract; reportedly, Bonitto can earn an additional $14.0 million through performance incentives over the life of the contract.

Thanks for reading and being here!

-TC

In this issue of Cap & Trade, I am reviewing the first-quarter touchdown drive by the Houston Texans. This drive included play action, a lot of power gap scheme, and one-on-one blocking assignments with some Duo sprinkled in.

Let’s dive into the tape!

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Play 1 - 1st & 10 at Houston 40-yard line:

Houston is in 11 personnel with Carolina presenting a light 6-man box. My area of focus here is wide receiver Christian Kirk in the slot. This position is the F receiver, also known as the “adjuster” in Nick Caley’s offense. Kirk will run an option route based on the defender’s leverage. Kirk identifies the outside shade from the nickelback and takes the inside short glance route for an easy 7 yards.

The catch was quite the adjustment for Kirk, scooping the ball off the turf from a low attempt from Stroud.

Play 2 - 2nd and 3 - Houston 47-yard line:

Newly acquired free agent running back Nick Chubb’s first carry as a Houston Texan comes early. Houston is in 11 personnel with Stover inline to the left with Kirk and Hutchinson tight against the strong side. Carolina has a 7-man box with an Over front. This is a simple Duo concept with Hutchinson and Kirk working quickly to the second level from the play side.

Play 3 - 1st and 10 - Carolina 48-yard line:

Houston remains in their 11 personnel with an initial 2x2 look that motions to a 3x1 bunch to the weak side. Stroud fakes the action to Chubb, and the linebackers do not bite. Kirk, Hutchinson, and three offensive linemen quickly gather steam upfield. A slight miscue by left guard Tomlinson keeps this from becoming a huge gain.

Houston fans have continually witnessed a less-than-stellar screen game in 2023 and 2024. This play is a welcome sight for a big positive gain play on a wide receiver screen.

Play 4 - 2nd and 2 - Carolina 40- yard line:

Houston changes the look up on 2nd and short with 21 personnel with Jakob Johnson as the offset fullback. Carolina with a 5-man under front (the NT is shaded to the strong side). The play comes out as a play action off the run with a 6-man protection. The action gets both linebackers and box safety to bite forward; Houston sends out a two-route concept. Both receivers (Noel at the bottom and Higgins at the top) run a spot dig at the 15-yard depth. Stroud hits Higgins on the edge with Higgins laying out for the ball. The timing of this route will need to be cleaned up as the season progresses.

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Play 5 - 1st and 10 - Carolina 26-yard line:

Houston remains in their 21 personnel; however, Johnson lines up as an off-the-line tight end. Houston runs two bench routes with the tight ends and two short curl routes with the receivers. Stroud’s first read to the flat was not available, and the two curl routes were covered. The offensive line holds up to allow Stroud to find Chubb on a short gain.

Play 6 - 2nd and 6 - Carolina 22-yard line:

Houston presses on with the 21 personnel with Johnson as the offset fullback to the strong side. Carolina has a 5-man over front with a 7-man box. Kirk will motion in from the right to act as a chip edge blocker. My area of focus here was a potential missed assignment or communication between Ersery and Tomlinson. Despite this, Tomlinson works back from his duo to get a shoulder on a blitzing linebacker. Fisher handles a tricky assignment on the right edge with a changeover. Chubb does a great job with his vision and getting skinny in the lane. Chubb gained 5 yards on this play, including 2.9 yards after contact.

Play 7 - 3rd and 1 - Carolina 17-yard line:

Third and short, Houston does not take any chances. 12 personnel with a double tight end look to the short side. Houston sticks with their power gap scheme with a “hat on a hat” blocking scheme. The “mike” linebacker was responsible for two run fits, leaving Chubb and an easy choice for the strong side B gap. If Fisher had been able to turn his defender to the sideline, this would have been a sizeable gain. Chubb pushes through the arm tackle for a big 9-yard gain.

Play 8 - 1st and Goal - Carolina 8-yard line:

Caley flips the look with the double tight end set to the field side, running essentially the same play as before. A “prove you can stop us” play. Carolina works through some blocks to shut down the running lane. Chubb is still able to gain 4 yards.

Play 9 - 2nd and Goal - Carolina 4-yard line:

Houston comes out in 11 personnel in a 2x2 formation with Schultz inline to the short side. Houston deploys five routes with two over routes from the left and a speed out by Higgins at the bottom. Carolina defends this well, dropping 7 in coverage with 6 blanketing the goal line. Stroud has nowhere to go and gives himself up for the sack. In a regular-season game, Stroud likely takes off for the edge for positive yards. With this preseason game having a minimal score concern, Stroud does the smart thing.

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Play 10 - 3rd and Goal - Carolina 5-yard line:

This play was interesting. Running 11 personnel with trips right with Schultz inline to the field left side. Ogunbowale motions to the back field. Watch Schultz’s route as he runs a flat route to the boundary and purposely picks the linebacker attempting to cover Ogunbowale out of the backfield to the boundary. Ogunbowale then runs the “Texas” route, angling back to the middle of the field wide open. Unfortunately, Carolina’s DL gets a hand on the ball to prevent the touchdown.

Play 11 - 4th and Goal - Carolina 5-yard line:

The final play of the drive results in a touchdown. Caley keeps the same personnel on the field, again with trips right; however, Schultz to the left is flanked out to the boundary. From the bunch, Collins runs a flat speed out, Kirk runs a second-level deep out, with Hutchinson running a choice route. Stroud had two options for a touchdown here, and opted for the safest bet to Collins to the speed out at the goal line. Stroud’s early release prevented the 7-man blitz from Carolina from getting any pressure, as Houston had only six blockers—great job by all on this execution.

This has been the first Anatomy of a Touchdown Drive. I hope you enjoyed it. I will do these throughout the season here on Cap & Trade.

-TC

In a 20-3 win over the Panthers, there was plenty to like from Houston. We got our first glimpse at the Texans’ 1st team offense and defense (excluding players with injuries), with plenty to like from both units. As always with preseason football, you do not want to fully “drink the kool-aid,” but some things we saw, especially from the offensive unit, have me very encouraged and optimistic about that unit.

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Coming into 2025, the Texans’ main concern was the offensive line, and for very valid reasons. They acquired multiple players this offseason with experience that had struggled in previous stops, along with rookie OT Aireontae Ersery, whom we will discuss further later. The combination of injuries to Texans OL starters like Cam Robinson and Tytus Howard, along with projected offseason starting RT Blake Fisher having a rough go of things in week 1 (32.8 PBLK Grade & 4 pressures allowed) would have made most believe the Texans were in for a rough early go of things vs Carolina but quite the opposite happened.

The Texans’ first-team OL group allowed zero pressures in their 25 snaps, where C.J. Stroud was pressured just once, which was the Texans’ 2nd & goal play that Stroud tried to create out of structure. The Texans also ran for an average of 5.7 YPC with this first team OL in, with Nick Chubb and Woody Marks both combining for nice runs. Chubb especially impressed me with some good cuts, allowing the Texans to stay ahead of the chains and taking no negative runs like they did in 2024-25. The optimism for that unit doesn’t just end at the starting 5, however, backups like Juice Scruggs and Zach Thomas had bounce-back performances after rough games vs Minnesota. They controlled the right side of the Texans’ OL with the 2nd unit, allowing zero pressures in their collective 35 snaps.

Part of that first team OL was rookie OT Aireontae Ersery, who slid over to LT with the recent injuries to Cam Robinson. Ersery played well allowing zero pressures in 16 dropbacks via PFF, He also had a 69.5 RBLK grade and a 82.9 Gap RBLK grade. Ersery has had a very impressive preseason for the Texans still allowing 0 pressures in 21 total dropbacks. Ersery is a lock to start at one of the tackle spots depending on what the Texans do with Cam Robinson/Tytus Howard but he will likely play a big role for Houston’s new revamped OL.

The Texans offense has to be pleased from what they saw in their revamped WR room as well, we know Nico Collins is going to play at a high level week in and week out; so there is no surprise with his effectiveness including a potential deep ball that Stroud missed, but the other players at WRs stepped up and made plays as well. Christian Kirk made his Texans debut, making some nice plays underneath in the quick game from Stroud, along with a first-down catch from Jayden Higgins. Xavier Hutchinson & Justin Watson both had a first down catch from Davis Mills, who has both played themselves into likely roster spots with their play this camp and now the John Metchie trade.

Woody Marks was another offensive player for the Texans who continues to impress this preseason. In week 1, it was his pass protection, and now in week 2, it was his rushing ability. Marks got two runs behind the Texans’ starting OL, which went for 12 and 7, leaving him at 9.5 YPC there. He finished the game with 5.7 YPC and 4.86 YCO/A per PFF. Yards Marks will likely be buried in the RB room early, depending on Mixon’s status, but could play himself into a role with the versatility he has shown in that RB room.

Moving on to the Texans’ defense, this unit was pretty much what we expected. Will Anderson Jr, Danielle Hunter, and Tim Settle each had two pressures in limited snaps against a good Panthers OL. Derek Stingley Jr. had an interception (which was called back) and a pass break-up on the first 3rd down of the game, and led by him, the Texans didn’t allow a completion to the Panthers’ first team offense. The Texans LB group had a great showing as well, led by 3rd year LB Henry To’oTo’o, who led the Texans with a 93.3 PFF Grade and three run stops in just 19 snaps. Jake Hansen also added three run stops for the Texans, who were able to hold Carolina to just 3.4 YPC and the first team offense to just 2.0 YPC.

The Texans’ CB depth, who had some issues in Minnesota, had a bounce-back game as well in week 2. Jaylin Smith and Damon Arnette both had INTs, along with CBs like Tremon Smith & D’Angelo Ross, allowing zero receptions in this game. Ross was close to another INT in this game as well. The Texans will likely get another look at this group in Preseason Week 3, but some interesting questions loom on who the Texans keep from this group.

Overall, there is plenty to be excited about in what was a very dominant showing for the Texans’ first team against a likely improved Panthers team after a pretty even joint practice. Stroud and the offense had a clean operation and stayed ahead of the chains against most of the first team Panthers defense and scored a TD in their redzone drive, the defense forced two three and outs from Bryce Young and the Panthers’ 1st team O, including a Mario Edwards Jr. sack, and the Texans’ rookies are showing up. Things are looking up for the Texans early!